jayyy

Going to reiterate my statement from roughly 2 days ago. There is zero use in debbing over a few days of meh model runs 300+ hours out. Models are 1000% going to flip flop a bunch given how many moving pieces there are. The pacific, NA, NAO domain, etc, are all going to be changing around over the coming 2+ weeks. There is zero shot models have everything nailed down at this range. The only thing we DO know is that models will continue to flip flop around until we get closer. Today’s model runs look a lot more workable than they did a few days ago. Could very well look like shit again tomorrow and then trend back in our direction next week. The key is to zoom out, look at the big picture, and hone in the most important players on the field. The rest will fall into place in due time. Will it be relatively warm the next 2ish weeks? Yes. Will it be a 2015 December torch? No. Will we have some chances at snow before Christmas? Probably not, but not 0% either. Thank you to all who analyze LR models so in depth each day and for passing on the wealth of knowledge you have. A colder version of 2015-2016 certainly wouldn’t be the end of the world. If we had hit on those 2-3 cold rain storms we saw, we would have had an epic winter. I’d take that in a heartbeat after the last 7 years.

I feel like it’s hard to trust long range MJO forecasts on models outside of like 2 weeks. Models have a tendency to kill off waves early. Models had the MJO dying off in phase 4 some weeks back, then phase 8-1, now phase 7 before going null. That ish flips faster than Ji’s optimism. Wouldn’t be surprised if they show something entirely different next week. Same thing with the AO. It initially looked to be positive most of the month, then we see a couple weeks where it looked like it would be negative most of the month, and now it’s flipping around AGAIN. Clearly lots of uncertainty on models as to what the upper air pattern will look like at Christmas and beyond. Wouldn’t get too excited or debbed this far out. It’s fairly clear that things are going to continue to flip flop around on models until we get closer.

Yep. My friends who live in Schenectady NW of Albany said they were forecasted to get 4-5” and it was still mixing this morning at 36 degrees. .

But wasn’t the pattern supposed to flip around Christmas week anyway? We knew we’d have a situation where we could *possibly* luck out with something minor in early December if timing was near perfect before we warmed up for a few weeks (typical niño climo) It looks like won’t see a torch either. PSU said a few times that he thought models were rushing the timetable a bit. Don’t really see a huge issue here. Perhaps models just becoming a bit more realistic on how quickly things shuffle. If it’s somewhat warm from now until Christmas and we see a solid January - February, that’s a W in my book. And textbook niño.

They got that bay inlet effect snow. [emoji23] .

Finally, a storm where I got more snow than my parents did in New York! Hallelujah. .

Airports (IAD and BWI) got roughly half an inch here - a little less. Northern MD in Carroll county and points west got 2-4” of snow. 3” of snow in my backyard in union bridge MD after 2” of rain .

3” final total LFG!!!! .

Side note - generally speaking, gotta love to see such a juiced up system. Have a big ole swath of mod to heavy precip spanning from Boston to Savannah. Bodes well for us down the road. #ELNINO

Good amount of precip to our SSW. Changeover seems to be happening a bit quicker than modeled. Come on baby, lemme see that 2” of paste! .

If I get 4-5” IMBY, I’ll go streaking in celebration [emoji1787]

2nd this .

Catskills in NY have a flood watch and winter storm warning for 6-10” up simultaneously. One thing is for sure… there sure is a lot of juice associated with this one. Gotta love niño. .

True. However.. most of our fails when it comes to cold chasing precip occur during pure FROPA setups. Models have a surface low developing along the coast, throwing precip back NW due to a nicely timed neg tilt of the trough. That’s what gets it done as far as seeing some snow on the backside. Still a tall order, no doubt, but chances are better to at least see some snow with this type of setup versus a typical frontal passage where 90+% of precip falls along the front.

Sitting at 50F currently. Temps are 50-55 for most areas from here down to the Carolinas. Drizzle just started with heavier returns nearby. Temps should initially go up over the next few hours, but once the deluge begins, that will stop. Going to be interesting to track temps throughout the day and to compare them to what the EC NAM and GFS depict. .

If NAM / gfs / euro hold serve from last night, expecting a *possible* WWA to extend from N VA over to Frederick and Carroll counties - especially if trends continue in our favor. Early season snowfall, big temp drop after temps get to 50+ (depending on location) by 2 pm and snowing very early morning before rush hour Monday. Could see a possible WWA being issued north of 70 to grab public attention.

Thank you for mentioning this. I was at work all day and forgot to ask. How are temps looking versus what models have been depicting? While it’s certainly plausible that we hit 55-60 degrees tomorrow before temps drop sharply, it’d be interesting to see where we actually land for a daytime high. If temps end up being lower than forecasted (mid to upper 40s versus 60 for instance) you’d think that would help our cause via a quicker changeover.

8” IMBY huh? I’ll take summa what the 3k is smoking please. .

Imagine 5.8” in Baltimore city as depicted here? That’d be wild. This board would implode. 10:1 ain’t happening though. Most likely outcome: Trace to 1” for the immediate metro burbs 1-2” my area over to PSU and out west to Clskins (3” jackpot in there somewhere if things turn out for the better - likely somewhere along highway 15 in elevated areas) 2-3” for the higher elevations out west (4” jack if everything aligns right) Anything more would be a goddamn weather coup. I’ll say it again… just give me some nice scenery with fatty flakes falling for a few hours and I’d be happy. This looked like a deluge of rain and nothing more just a few days ago. It’s been nice to see something trend our way for a change, even if the outcome isn’t all that impressive

Was trying to good juju it into existence! Pretty confident we can get an inch or so up here. It doesn’t even need to stick honestly.. just give me a few hours of fatties flying and I’m content. .

I haven’t checked verification scores either tbh, but it certainly feels like the GFS has been pretty money over the past year or so.

This actually makes more sense vs. what the mesos are showing. Yes, CAPEs area is further east, but they’ll also see more significant precip from the coastal low. That secondary pocket of 2-3” east of the bay would make sense in this scenario. Later flip, but more intense precip. Edit — ratios won’t be 10:1 but rates will play a huge factor.

And let’s face it… it IS the best model these days post upgrade. .

There was a storm last year where it was being very stubborn about giving us a solid hit until the night before.. even though all other guidance had shifted away from that possibility. .

Agreed. Thats what I meant about using it to see whether or not it’s holding the same general evolution in the short range. For me, it’s more about the minute details. I don’t think it does as well as some meso models when it comes to pinpointing bands, but it is definitely still a good sign when the euro holds strong. .