jayyy

Plenty of sub 980, multiple 950s, and a 948 mixed in there. Talk about a bomb

12z EPS had some insanely strong lows off the east coast for the 10th. We may be too far south for that one, but man… a sub 950 low would be something alright.

00z GFS 10:1 map for this weekends storm. This one isn’t ours but the 10th onward should hopefully be game time with a much a more favorable boundary setup, legit. blocking, and a -EPO in place. Screw it. I’m going to try to be optimistic. It’s our last window of opportunity (a good one at that) and we have quite literally nothing to lose. .

New and improved chuck is the man! .

Plenty of areas in Rockland, northern westchester, orange, Putnam and SW CT all will verify their 6-8” warnings. NWS did a great job actually. 6.5” in the northern part of new city

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But prior failures occurred for specific reasons, none of which should be in play this time around. I get why you’re skeptical of us getting snow. But none of the forecasted patterns featured THIS combination of teleconnections. A legit west based NAO with a TPV underneath, a 50/50, a -EPO/WPO and suppressed SER. The niña is also decaying with a phase 8 MJO. These factors should keep the reasons we previously failed at bay. It’s not like we were projected to see legit blocking and a —EPO previously and they just didn’t pan out. We were banking on timing and small windows where things were somewhat workable with a handful of shitty teleconnections still in play. We also have shorter wavelengths now, which will also help. I get why folks are skeptical / jaded from this winter. But I don’t buy the whole we failed before so we’ll fail again mantra. We failed for very specific reasons, mainly the PAC and SER and a complete lack of blocking to attempt to overcome those factors. Perhaps we get unlucky and we don’t see snow, but this is by far our best pattern of the winter season. There’s a reason PSU shrugged off every single one of those potential windows and is optimistic for this one.

38 and drizzly. Had a legit downpour roll through earlier. My folks who live about 30 miles NNW of NYC have 5” OTG with heavy snow falling. My mom texts me a picture of their backyard and says “I know you’re jealous”. NOT COOL MOM. NOT COOL. [emoji31]

But that’s not a foregone conclusion because of the date on the calendar. Our area has seen plenty of mid to late march snowstorms. And not just 3” storms which melt immediately, but legit 12”+ storms. Especially northern areas like ours. .

We haven’t had a legit block, 50/50, and suppressed SER all season though. The -NAO is looking like a lock. Should get a -EPO for a time too to supply cold air. A very active jet will drag the boundary south along the way. I get why people are apprehensive. This season has been god awful, but we aren’t going to fail simply because we failed before. The pattern is completely different and we finally have the mechanisms needed to overcome the PAC (which will be less hostile, especially with the decaying niña) instead of having to rely on ridiculously lucky timing. As PSU said, we have a legit reason to be excited this time around. The prior 10 day teases were Hail Marys where you could see how we fail from a mile away. Mirages, so to speak. The EPS and GEFS, while somewhat different in how they get there, are both honking. This is pretty much the first HECS signal we’ve had in years. I get the fear of getting burned. I feel it too. But I do think this the best chance we’ve had all winter, by a long shot. Go big or go home. Rooting for an absolute monster that brings us near climo in one shot.

Headed up there this weekend. Pretty pumped .

The difference is negligible though. Freezing temps and rates will win every time. Melting rate is really the only issue .

The pattern is completely different. -NAO -EPO a 50/50 low and a squashed SER. We have a much better shot at snow between now and march 20th than we have had all winter. People are just jaded. Hard to blame them. .

The Sun angle is the same in New York and they’re getting 2 feet between now and Friday. It’s nonsense. Same with the “it’s too warm leading in” notion. I’ve seen it snow in April (higher “sun angle” than now) and 1 day after it was 60 degrees. Both of those late season excuses are untrue. It isn’t harder to snow in late march because of the sun angle. It’s harder to snow in late march because it’s generally less cold and we’re out of peak climo. Longer days could have an effect (more hours of sunlight) but not sun angle. If it’s 30-33 and snowing hard enough, it’ll accumulate, no matter when it happens.

March 10-15th is the timeframe I’m eyeing for our potential biggie. If we can’t score there, I’m not sure we score at all. .

Yeesh. Rough past 36 hours models wise. Think I’m going to have to go up to New York a day earlier than originally planned though. No part of me wants to drive through a rager in my sedan. .

I’m headed up to NY from the 3rd-5th. Non storm related but excited that the timing lines up nonetheless. If you can make it happen, it’s good for the weenie soul. .

It’s encouraging the see both the EPS and GEFS annihilate the SER around the 10th. Just hope it holds. Combine that with legit blocking, and that’s how we overcome the PAC.

Imagine that. It’s the weather. Minute details matter immensely during a marginal event. .

IF this pans out in the timeframe depicted above, we’ll likely get one shot at a biggie. It’s early enough to make some magic happen. If it’s kicked down the road to the end of march, maybe not, and we watch nyc to Boston have an epic backend.

This isn’t “much warmer” and it’s the best look we’ve had all season outside of December’s -NAO -AO +PNA regime (which was still a fail) It’s cold enough and workable for snow. There is a very major difference here versus what we’ve been dealing with. Notice the southeast ridge is non existent? Can thank the feature out in the pacific for that. It causes just enough of a reaction in the SW that the SER ends up getting squashed entirely, allowing the boundary to finally settle further south. This should be the best window of the season with an active STJ, suppressed SER, an eroding Niña, and a legit -NAO. . Feature X is what I’m referring to. Causes Y, which then squashes the SER (Z) IF this look pans out, we could get that long awaited KU

6z nam inbound. Little out of range but curious to see how the setup looks leading in around 72hr .

It’s a good thing we’re still 5 days out .

Driving up to the NYC area with my wife Friday morning to see my folks for a few hours before heading upstate in the late afternoon. Have a surprise bday party slated for Saturday morning. Not very excited about going to the bday party (my wife’s friend isn’t my cup of tea) but if I can be in a winter wonderland, count me in. Between Monday’s storm and next weekend, they could have two feet OTG by Saturday night. Nonetheless, rooting for the storm to hit our area. We need it. One more sizable shift south and we’re in the game for a few inches at least. Cards are undoubtedly stacked against us though. Liking the setup for the following week better as the boundary will be further south

Cmc and NAVGEM are the only two models that currently show a favorable outcome. What could go wrong .