jayyy

4 times in 54 years and folks are saying “iDK mAn… ItLL nEvER sN0w aGaIn cUz iT hAZnT sn0wed bY JaN 2nD” It can still get quite cold at our latitude, we can still get snow, and we can still see heater winters. Calm the fuck down yall. Our day will come.

There are certainly worse positions to be in. Maybe it doesn’t pan out ultimately, but I’d almost rather things be where they are now. Models showing us being fringed with a low tracking to the south with a workable airmass in place… than have models show a flush hit over a week out.

EPS members for between now and the 10th. Take exact totals with a grain of salt, but I don’t understand the “models are now pushing things back to February” talk. It’s just not true. Plenty of members showing snow chances in the coming 2 weeks. We’ll revisit this if the possibility breaks down, but I don’t see the need for the premature debbing. .

I don’t see the fact that I have seen only 3” of snow on December 26th as an indication that we won’t reach climo by end of march. Even if we have seen a good amount of precip (thank you niño / STJ) We have been here many times before. Two things can be true at once. It can be harder to snow in marginal setups early on in winter, but also still snow a lot if we get a few flush hits. Average annual snowfall isn’t all that high in our general area to begin with. People forget that climo for Baltimore and the surrounding area is like 20” (+ or minus a bit depending on your exact location) That’s really only one big and one or two moderate snowfalls. That’s it. We’re 5 days into actual winter. We rarely get snow before December 15th, especially as of late. It rains in December in the mid Atlantic. That’s nothing new. I grew up in the Hudson valley in NY, which averages 2X more snow than my area in northern MD. Saw plenty of December snowfalls growing up, but also saw plenty of shutout Decembers too. Backloaded niño winters are quite common, and the fact that we sometimes get one snowfall in December doesn’t mean the rest of the season is done for. My area saw 3” a few weeks ago. 4” in PSUs backyard. If I see 3” in December and then 20-30” between January - march, that’s a successful winter as far as climo is concerned. If 09-10 is what people are measuring this up to, that’s a foolish things to do. I don’t see what you’re seeing - that we won’t see a workable pattern until February. Models have had a pretty decent signal for January 6-8th period for some days now. That hasn’t really changed. I understand people’s pessimism and impatience, but I’m not seeing any signs that we’re now suddenly delayed until February. We can revisit this possibility if models truly do back away over the coming days (for Jan 2-8th) and weeks (for the rest of January into feb)

Oy gavault, as my grandmother used to say. Some people in here just repeat the same shit over and over again, despite being 100% incorrect in what they’re saying. That fact that some think models got this timeframe incorrect is mindblowing. CHECK 10-15 days ago on the EPS and GEFS. Compare it to right now. Pretty much 100% spot on. Who cares that the weeklies from November were 6-7 days off on the start of the pattern change? That doesn’t mean they weren’t right or that the “can is being kicked”. This window (2nd-8th) has looked like the first serviceable window for quite some time now if you’re looking for a legitimate snow threat outside of the western highlands. The 29th idea has been DOA for a solid week plus. Those OP runs were rushing the progression of the pattern. Nothings changed. Most niño winters, including snowmaggedon in 2010, were backloaded. Nothings really changed. People are just impatient. Rightfully so, but let’s stop conflating the accuracy / consistency of the models with people’s inability to remain levelheaded about the weather.

No one thought this would be a 09-10 winter. Literally no one.

Ehh, not entirely sure that it’d be a snowstorm in other years. Hard to tell. Perhaps some snow from a late changeover as the low cranks up and passes us by with minor accumulation, but all snow? Idk. Maybe but hard to tell. It’s hard to analyze in a vacuum. Sure, we’ve overcome warm temps the day prior to then see snow, but we are looking at a setup where 850s are above 0 all the way up to Bangor ME. The flow ahead of the system isn’t helpful at all. Other instances where we’ve overcome usually have better surface temps to our NW to tap into. Could be as simple as the complete lack of snow cover to the north of here. Great Lakes, Canada, etc. Once the winds flip NW, there’s no cold or even marginal cold to get the job done. As cape said, where’s the cold coming from, even as winds become favorable and it bombs out. That could be the base state angle you were mentioning. Less snow early in the season for places north of here could mean marginal setups at the front end of a pattern change (and in early winter) are less likely to work out. The difference a degree or two makes is quite big unfortunately. What used to be 33-34f and snow with mid levels at 0C is now 34-35 and rain with mid levels at 1-2C with this type of airmass.

53 said I had errant beliefs [emoji23] but I can totally understand the mixup

With the impending pattern change still on track, I’d be OK with settling for a snow thump to rain/dry slot setup around the 4th if it meant setting the stage for a legit storm around the 8-9th. Drag the boundary south, inject in some fresh cold air, and we see a low track up from the Gulf coast. Hints of high pressure being present in eastern Canada as well. Let’s get it done! A few members of the 18z GEFS actually gave us significant snow from the initial wave, but there’s really not much support for that outcome *at this time*

What’d you say to me the other day about debating the illogical with logic? Same person if I recall correctly [emoji1787] it’s becoming quite clear that the member in question doesn’t understand how pattern changes work and that it takes some time for things to unfold downstream when the PAC reshuffles. The pattern beginning to change on the 29th doesn’t mean we will have a snow setup on the 30th. It typically means that we should begin to see snow chances pop up on guidance 7-10 days after, and that still hinges on other things lining up correctly. Some folks need a quick refresher it seems. I know it’s been snowless around here the past 2 years but damn. On a real note, thanks for the quick fact check. Guidance has, so far, done a solid job with the longwave pattern 10-15 days out. No two ways about it. And you were the first person to say models were rushing a snowstorm for the 29th timeframe. The pattern change was still coming as advertised, but that there was very little shot things would come together within 4 days to see a snowstorm materialize. Makes sense given the number of moving pieces impacting the impending changes at H5. January 4-5th is our first shot at *SOME* snow, but not as good as our chances for the 8th-9th. That could be the first true areawide SECS to track this winter

Show us young Jidi

Someone got coal for Christmas this morning. Sheesh

This frame here definitely intrigues me. The big storm being shown today is roughly 2 weeks out but the pattern load up that eventually rolls downstream to setup that storm is depicted at day 7-8. This timeframe will be crucial to watch over the next 5ish days

High pressure in a nice spot anchored in there too. Cold with lots of precip. Gotta love gulf lows bombing underneath a legit air mass. Beautiful at h5 too. Only 2 weeks away…. [emoji2957]

Do we perhaps have something to track inside one week?! Even if it’s not the stronger signal of the 2, I’d gladly take a smaller event to kick things off.

January 2nd appetizer, 6th we get the money shot. Willing it into existence!

Running out of weeks? Winter started 3 days ago [emoji1787]

Looking at minute details 14-15 days out is pretty pointless. Models will probably go from showing a NC jackpot to a DC jackpot to a Detroit jackpot and back again over the next 7-8 days. Which is what we should expect this far out. We’re seeing the large envelope of solutions being depicted in individual members at range (January 4-6 timeframe) which will narrow with passing time. Things we know: a legitimate airmass that can support snow is coming and we have a very active STJ in place that will be sending a parade of SWs across the southern half of the country. Pretty solid signal for a bob chill train w to e train pattern to unfold The details and timing are not going to be ironed out for quite some time. Getting into passionate debates this far out is pretty pointless.

We were looking at all rain and temps in the 50s 3 days before the first snowfall of the season. Ended up with 3” here. Not counting out the 29th quite yet. Still a ways to go. I’d take another small event early on in the new pattern if we can get one before mecs/hecs hunting season.

Mid 40s for highs today and currently sitting at 34 degrees. Enjoying the “torch”

Hot DAMN the GEFS looked good earlier this evening. You almost have to double and triple take looking at these 500mb / H5 outputs out of utter disbelief that a) they look as good as they do and b. they’re actually improving incrementally as time goes on. Still some time for things to change of course, but it’s definitely encouraging that we’re only about 7 days away from the start of the pattern change. Let’s keep it going!

Those are 500mb heights. .

My point exactly. The window for a biggie doesn’t open for another 10+ days. Seeing fantasy land OP runs show digital blue certainly doesn’t “mean everything”. In fact, it kinda means nothing. Models are going to show a wide envelope of outcomes at this range. OP GFS showed a MECS last night, and lost it today. It’ll probably show back up tomorrow at 6z. It’s nothing more than noise at this range. No need to freak out over long range OP runs. One thing is for sure… we have a ton of agreement on models regarding the longwave pattern shift coming in a little less than 2 weeks, and it looks like it could be the best 5H pattern we’ve had in quite some time. Some folks need to chilllll. This is a marathon, not a sprint.

Like this?? Or do you need to see it on every single OP run at the 15 day range just to appease your worried mind? Come on Ji. You’ve come so far. Reel it back in.

Stop looking at long range snowfall means. Jesus.