jayyy

35 and switched to rain. Compaction already happening like a MOFO but they ended up around 11” total .

When is it forecasted to transition into phase 8? Hopefully helps us keep the SER at bay.

Looks the same…. Ridiculously different than it’s ENS. Doesn’t mean it’s wrong necessarily but yeesh

I’m up in Schenectady, NY tonight into tomorrow for a friend’s surprise 30th bday party. They are getting absolutely crushed up here. Heavy snow OBS reported for the past 4+ hours easily. 6+ OTG with 1-2” per hour rates Red dot [emoji837] = current location

Getting absolutely hammered up here. Referring to both my intoxication level and the snow. Over 2” in the last hour alone and over 6” OTG Red dot marked my current location

Man, what a headspinning hobby. Appreciate all of your analysis and insight my friend. You’ve been steadfast with your thoughts on how this all will unfold, and you were certainly right several days ago when you said the solutions would be all over the damn place over the coming days Love to see the flattening of the flow on the EPS, allowing the storm to slide underneath. It’s quite close to being an areawide snowstorm (with mixing / rain in the lowland areas along and east of 95) Next 72 hours will be pretty crucial, no matter which way this turns out.

No doubt. There’s a very long way to go. Snow maps at this range are 100% irrelevant but I’d be lying if I said I didn’t enjoy seeing pink over my house for a moment there. Yeesh, that storm slowed WAAAAAY down. If this were the not so distant past, those are the exact models I’d want on my side at range… but we all know what’s up this winter.

I’d honestly laugh if the EPS trended the opposite way

Obviously not the final solution but I dig the changes run over run. Too bad the storms end is still 10 days out lol Edit - 10:1 map, which is unlikely to occur, so one can cut this by at least 1/3 if we’re being realistic with temps. Not that clown maps really mean much at this range.

The low definitely is SW of where it was in the prior frame. Weird. That outcome is sooo different than OP 18z .

Likely not. Some snow there for my area for sure but I know better than to bank on backside shenanigans. Still 7-8 days out though so I’m not too pressed on thermals / exact details at this range. .

Suspect we’ll have more clarity in 48 hours or so. Day 4/5 seems to be the sweet spot this winter for when models drastically tighten the envelope. .

Interior special. 6+ NW of 95. 12+ inland

… close but no cigar. Much improved though! .

CAD signature and snow falling away from the coast in this frame too. Way different indeed. .

The WC piece pushing east was delayed but not denied says 00z .

The fact that there are 3 prior winters with under 1” for the entire season almost makes you feel better about this years dumpster fire for a brief moment. [emoji23] Also no surprise that most of those Fs occurred over the last 10-15 years.

Not sure I’d say rarely historically. Now… Lately? Nothing pans out lol. The MA and the 1,000 ways to fail - PSUs new book. [emoji1787]

00z euro / eps time … Hopefully it doesn’t attempt to link the block with the SE ridge like some other models are hinting at. The block seems to be trending south on some models (too far south) and it ends up overwhelming the pattern by linking with the SE ridge. All as the west coast trough gets stuck and amplifies along the WC. That’s the evolution that destroys our potential pattern and gives us a similar result to when our Christmas time pattern change fail happened. Hopefully it’s just the models picking up on current conditions but who knows.

I will most definitely be posting Jeb walk pics tomorrow! Can hear the snow whipping against our hotel room window. Fatty snowflakes are falling with temps just above freezing. Glad I don’t have to shovel this shit.

I grew up 30mi north of NYC in the lower Hudson valley and can recall countless wave 2 scores after initial storms cut to our west or directly overhead. Of course, the boundary didn’t need to push as far south up there in comparison to our area and they can also score even when the boundary push is temporary. Transition storms are fairly regular for that area. Our latitude requires the mechanisms necessary to 1) push the boundary further south and 2) keep it in place (blocking and a 50/50) which is why it doesn’t pan out nearly as often as where I grew up. It’s not an easy feat for our area, but if we get the -EPO, -NAO, 50/50 combo, it certainly helps our chances. It’s certainly happened before.

What do you mean by worked out? The boundary naturally gets pulled further south directly after a wave passes through. The problem is we haven’t had a mechanism in place to maintain lower heights / keep the boundary in place and the SER continues to donkey punch us into submission because of it. With a block and a 50\50 forecasted to evolve, heights would remain lower in the east and allow the boundary to come south and stay south. The caveat to this result is if the west coast trough amplifies / stalls instead of ejecting east, pumping heights in the SE ahead of it.

I assume they “do their best” to emulate forecasted condition changes, but I made the point earlier that initialization also matters. If models are initializing in a block-less, phase 7 pattern, I have to assume it’s POSSIBLE that they adjust over the coming days as the MJO transitions into phase 8. A strong phase 8 at that. .

Best case scenario our wave 1 is NOT a Midwest / plains superstorm that simply cuts to our west, the boundary is subsequently dragged south, our 500mb pattern evolves, and we score on 1-2 waves between 14-21st. So long as wave 1 doesn’t become a monster that drops 50” in the heartland, and evolves somewhat similarly to todays storm, we should hopefully be prime for the follow up. Ensembles are still worlds apart. OPs are flip flopping all over the place run to run. More likely than not that we don’t cash in on wave 1, but I think it’s also safe to say that when the envelop ranges from a coastal higher (Canadian) to a low in Indiana (GFS), we also don’t have our final solution anywhere close to nailed down.