jayyy

Maybe I’m off-base here, but don’t certain patterns / ENSO states play into the strengths / weaknesses of each model? Believe I read somewhere a while back that the EC has a noticeably higher verification score in Niños than Niñas. Back when we seemed to get niños more often, I feel like the EC was pretty unstoppable in the 10-14 day range. I know some exclusively blame upgrades or what have you, but perhaps that’s not the entire story? Anyway.. going to be an awesome next week of tracking this with you crazy weenies. Big question mark here is that first shortwave… what does it do and how does it impact our bigger threat? The strength / location of that 50/50 is going to be crucial in keeping our High in a favorable spot leading in. Should know a whole lot more by 00z wed

We’re 7 days out. How often do all members show hits a week out? Come on man. That was also an ensemble mean, not a clown map.

It’s a marathon, my friend. Going to be a LONG week tracking these models 4x a day in here, that’s for sure. Here’s the initial reminder for folks (Ji and some others specifically) - please do not live and die by each run each day... especially by those damn clown maps. You are going to drive yourselves crazy and there is zero shot models keep us happy for the next 28 consecutive suites. It is completely normal for models to shift around a bit from suite to suite. 11” IMBY tonight on the GFS may be 3-4” tomorrow at 12z and then bounce back again. So long as the general evolution / h5 look remains locked in, we have a legit shot at our first areawide snowfall in 2 years (possibly a significant snowfall) Don’t fret over 50-75 mile shifts from run to run and the resulting snow map- keep an eye on the bigger picture.

Too old for that shit 7 days out. I’ll read the meltdown over it not showing as much snow as the GFS & CMC in the morning [emoji2957]

GFS / GEM both showing significant snows for 90+% of us?! Forgot what that felt like. Too bad this storm is 7 days out. Expectations will be mighty high from here on out for the usual suspects. .

Woof. Obviously ignoring the snow maps, that was a nice run there.

6+ days out. Still time for things to change. Perhaps it changes for the worse, but we’re not out of the game yet, especially N&W areas.

Keep talking naughty.

Now that we have a tangible threat to track, perhaps we should put the threat(s) inside 7 days in a separate thread? Might make it a bit easier to sift through these discussions. Keep D7-15+ ensemble analysis in here and keep discussion of the 4-7th timeframe separate? PS - fuck your superstitions. Mother Nature doesn’t care that we made a thread. [emoji23] .

Doesn’t it have a better verification score than the GFS though? Or am I tripping

2 long range runs of the GEFS - which were certainly pretty ugly vs. prior runs - sent this sub into a frenzy of sorts. To say we need some snow would be an understatement. Pretty sure many in here would cry happy tears to just wake up to an inch of snow at this point. Glad to see the GEFS remembered we’re in a niño this morning. Poor CAPE has had to keep these weenies from jumping off the ledge.

It’s workable. Need a bit of help and timing luck, but love to see that high in Canada and snow all the way down to the Carolinas

Can’t say I’m mad about seeing a suppressed storm 7 days out. As you said, maximum impact would be advisory level at best if the stars aligned, but shit.. even a 1-3 / 2-4 event would get this subforum rockin .

Exactly! Sure… we have seen *some* December snow over the past decade+ (not much in the grand scheme of things ) but we’ve also been dealing with the combination of a -PDO cycle and a niña / neutral ENSO state for the better part of the last 7+ years. The years we got a niño? We saw an absolutely epic storm in 16 and we all know what happened in 09-10 and 14-15. People are acting like we’ve had a string of winters with favorable ENSO / H5 and we’ve struck out. We haven’t had any of those as of late. And I’m not talking about temporary 1-2 week periods in the middle of a shit longpattern / niña where things “used to be workable sometimes”. The fact that we didn’t see snow in the middle of a shit sandwich isn’t surprising or earthshattering. We got unlucky… it happens. And yes, some extra warmth probably didn’t help our cause. I will not simply ignore the base state / PAC problem we’ve had the past 7 years and say well, guess we’re fucked forever since it hasn’t snowed before January 1st when we are finally back in a more favorable base state. It’s undeniable that these marginal setups early on in the season have become harder to cash in on due the giant elephant in the room.. but it’s absolute horseshit that we can’t snow or that we can’t see winters with AN snowfall anymore. Perhaps it does take longer for Maritime PAC puke to get routed out these days and it’s not as easy for us to go from 50 to 33 and snow, but that doesn’t mean we are done for entirely. It can be true that we see fewer marginal snowstorms and epic winters going forward, but also true that we can still manage them with a few extra factors working in our favor. There is so much speculation going on in these threads, it’s astonishing. I know it’s really hard not to be impatient with how miserable it’s been the past 7 years.. I am just as antsy for snow as the next snow weenie… but folks really need to get it together. Crying about it never snowing again one minute and then jumping for joy at digital blue on a 384 hour OP run of the GFS the next is no way to live. Perhaps some folks need to step back from the models for a week or two and come back when they’re ready to be levelheaded about it. Historically speaking, our best climo for snow is January 15th to march 2nd or so. Most Niños also align with this timeframe. Let’s all chill out and see how the chips end up falling. Freaking out for no reason does absolutely nothing except keep awesome posters and Mets away from our sub. It certainly doesn’t make it snow.

MLK to V-Day epic heater coming!

So were the weeklies from early to mid November you keep referencing when stating the pattern change never came on the 28th. Plain and simple: Ensembles should be used to track large scale synoptic changes at h5 in the medium+ range, and then we shift to OPs in the short and mid range to nail down specifics on storm chances. Op runs at 300+ hours = Useless. For thermal profiles, track, etc. We’ll get to where we need to be eventually. Just hope it’s not TOO late into January. We could go on absolute heater from MLK to Valentine’s Day and beyond, but I’d prefer not to have to bank on that.

Even more so for temps Ji. The OP GFS significantly busted high on my temps leading up to Christmas Called for mid 50s and my area was in the 42-45 range most days.

So, according to Ji, we’ve never had a decent to good winter without it snowing prior to January 5th? Interesting.

Generally speaking, it’s nice to see multiple members with flush hits and even a member or two hitting south of here. Lots of time left to reel this in.

Truly dumbfounded by a lot of the things I read on here. Makes me appreciate folks like yourself even more. Keep doing you man. Love the positivity you have and sticking to pure analysis (minus the emotions many others inject into their “forecasts”. Some folks either a) live in the wrong CWA and/or need a new hobby if their expectations are wall to wall winter in the Mid-Atlantic. It’d be one thing if we lived in New Hampshire… but Maryland Delaware and Virginia?! Come on. If “epic” winters were commonplace, they wouldn’t be epic. It’s becoming increasingly intolerable to scroll through these threads, so I just wanna shout you out for being one of the more consistent and level headed posters in here.

I feel like mid January thru February is always prime climo for our area.

This storm fortunately doesn’t haunt me like it does most folks around these parts. I lived in New York at the time, right under that 24+ blob in the Lower Hudson valley. One of the coolest storms I’ve ever experienced. .

Half the winter gone? What the actual fack are you debs smoking on? Please move your emotions to the panic room thread. This shit, along with weather53s constant need to bash everyone’s analysis while not having any science backed predictions / analysis of their owns is making this thread miserable to read through. How many times do you guys need to be told the same thing before understanding how a pattern change works? It’s like beating a dead horse. THERE WAS NEVER a time when we thought we’d be knee deep in a snowy / cold pattern by the end of December. The weeklies from back in early November don’t count. We’ve been looking at the 1/2 and beyond timeframe for WEEKS now. Get it together guys. The incessant need to deb because you guys are snow jaded is annoying as shit.

Right on. I envision each passing wave acting as a bootleg 50/50 for the following wave in that it would slow things down upstream just enough to allow things to potentially come together 3-4 days later. Going to be a very interesting next 5-7+ days of model runs.

The chances should to be plentiful over the next several weeks. Thank you niño! Said this the other day, but IMO, the most likely way to maximize snowfall potential from these 3 setups is if storm #1 (4-5th) ends up being the “setup storm” for the trailing 1 or 2 shortwaves. Historically it would be the least impactful, coming at the beginning of train tracks pattern with a marginal (but workable) airmass, but could also prove to be the most important wave, as it would lay the groundwork for a better h5 look once the 7th rolls around ie: ushering in legitimate cold air, laying down some snowpack to our north, and by potentially slowing down the flow upstream a bit, allowing storm #2 to potentially slow down and go boom. All speculation of course and I’m just thinking out loud here, but if we could manage to get even a little bit of snow from wave 1 and then cash in on at least one of the following two, that’d be a great way to kick off the new year. It’d certainly help get weenies off the proverbial ledge.