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jayyy

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Everything posted by jayyy

  1. jayyy
    Looks like a 20 mile shift N for the 0c line. Let’s just hope it’s a wobble and not the start of a trend, especially for I-95 on east. Feel pretty good about this setup for our neck of the woods PSU
  2. jayyy
    NAM at 84 hours isn’t even NAM distance lol
  3. jayyy
    Ninja’d by Terp. No high = LP railroads through the coastline. We’ll see what the euro has to say later on. Not too worried at the moment. Especially up my way. If the Euro / GFS hold serve, that’s all I need to remain confident going into the 4 day range.
  4. jayyy
    The goal posts have tightened substantially from just a day or two ago, but there’s still going to be waffling on exact jackpot zones for qpf, the exact location of the R/S line, timing of the transfer to the coast, etc. It’s all noise. 50 miles here, 25 miles there. We’ve seen this song and dance before. Models trend north as we hit day 4-5 and then they settle back south leading up to game time as models get better sampling on the confluence leading in. Sure, we’d love for models to show 12+ in our backyards for 5 straight days, but we all know that rarely happens. Looking very solid for many of us right now. .
  5. jayyy
    That’s over a foot in Ellicott city. Not a bad run AT ALL .
  6. jayyy
    The trend has undeniably been colder - better confluence, a stronger / better positioned high, and an earlier transfer to the coast. Trends have NOT been warmer the past 72 hours. Quite the opposite in fact. .
  7. jayyy
    When does the GFS bring in precip? Did it continue the trend of earlier onset or is still looking like a Sunday affair? Gotta think late Saturday night would be ideal vs later into Sunday morning - afternoon
  8. jayyy
    The new Ji… Rates overcome marginal surface temps as mid levels stay cold enough. Has happened many times before. I-95 gets a mauling of precip, which mitigates that issue. As depicted, that’s heavy snow at 33 degrees, not rain. It’s not a lock, but if the storm evolves as the GFS depicts, DC to Baltimore would see warning level snowfall with more snow to the WNW.
  9. jayyy
    I’m relaxed Ji… haha. I’ve probably been one of the most optimistic folks in here regarding this threat. Just wish we were closer than 5 days is all. .
  10. jayyy
    18z GFS is a mauling for the DC - BAL corridor. NYC gets in on the fun as well. Great suite.
  11. jayyy
    WOOF. El Niño for the win. Hate that this storm is still 5+ days out though.
  12. jayyy
    Nice to see some positivity up in this place for a change! Let’s keep it rolling with HH GOOFUS
  13. jayyy
    Huh? El Niño is the mechanism that’s finally allowing the PAC to become more favorable. The PAC has been the proverbial kiss of death for the entire east coast the past few years. Not sure I agree with this. The EPO part, sure, it won’t remain negative… but disagree about the pac jet. The niño helps prevent the pac jet from remaining too extended for too long. The entrenched niño longwave pattern is what’s allowing our pattern to become more favorable - especially in the mid Atlantic.
  14. jayyy
    You know the drill though… those areas JUST west of the zero line will get hammered with QPF. Could very well have a situation where eastern Howard county sees 3-6” and western Howard county sees 6-12”. Going to be a close one for many areas within 5 or so miles of 95.
  15. jayyy
    Don’t think there was ever really a doubt NW would win with a marginal airmass in place and a low tracking just offshore. Highly unlikely the suppressed looks with jackpots in SVA pan out given the setup.
  16. jayyy
    This storm would indeed be like Jesus Christ if it pans out. Bringing weenies the salvation we all desperately need. But let’s not get TOO hyped over clown maps at day 7. One day at a time.
  17. jayyy
    EPS - hr 156 Cha-ching
  18. jayyy
    The GFS was also slightly more amped / NW with the initial SW versus 18z… the big difference was that redevelopment got shunted further SE due to more confluence ahead of the system. Hence the congrats to Baltimore and the surrounding area .
  19. jayyy
    While the exact output on the clown maps should be taken with the smallest grain of salt at this range (Sorry Ji), it is pretty impressive how similar they looked on the 00z GFS CMC EC. Nearly identical with a few minor tweaks.
  20. jayyy
    IF we were to fail, I don’t believe we’d fail due to suppression. It’s more likely that we’d fail due to models overdoing confluence ahead of the system. Let’s not go down that path unless necessary please.
  21. jayyy
    Let’s reel ‘er in .
  22. jayyy
    It really wouldn’t be all that shocking if this ends up being more impactful in the DC - Philly corridor than it is in the NYC to BOS corridor. Nothing is off the table a week out, but the longwave pattern we’re entering has resulted in a mid Atlantic bullseye numerous times over the years. Going to be a wild next 4 days of tracking. We’ll know MUCH more after that Wednesday wave passes by. Would be badass to finally see a DC to Boston snowstorm, but I’m not sure this is the one to do. One of those areas will end up much happier than the other come next weekend.
  23. jayyy
    Tick.. tick.. BOOM We get cold enough between 850s & the surface… which allows us to survive the SW’s approach. The rest is history. Anyone with more knowledge than myself able to explain the mechanism that leads to the better cold push / confluence? The high up north is stronger yes, but it also seems to be anchored in place much better. Is this a result of the 50/50? Thanks in advance. PS - When was the last time we had the GFS CMC and Euro all show warning level snowfall for majority of the CWA? Fuggin awesome.
  24. jayyy
    Huge shifts in our direction today, no doubt about it. This is why you never give up too early and why you don’t live and die by digital blue on long range OP runs. If you look back 14 or so days, ensembles did a fantastic job sniffing out the upper air pattern change Not sure how this storm will ultimately play, but damn does it feel good to track something tangible again and to not be in a shitty niña / PAC pattern while doing so.
  25. jayyy
    Tick… tick…
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