jayyy

It’s rarely right, but fuck it’s been consistent for DAYS. .

Wave 2 per the CMC. Better look than wave 1 with the boundary setup further south. Wave 1 kickstarts the pattern and wave 2 follows on its heels with better conditions in place.

This was the 18z eps ensemble mean MSLP map. 0z coming soon. .

I think wave 2 is the one to really watch. One ushers in the cold air and ushers in the pattern, wave 2 gets it done. It’s far out, but some LR models are also showing a wave 3. Wave train coming. .

lol already calling the pattern a fail and the period in question hasn’t happened yet. Perhaps wait for the futility posts until the end of the month Like our chances on 2/3 waves in question before the 21st

Close (18z) Let’s see what 00z has in store

Too far east but same idea applies for me

There are worse places we could be at this range IMO .

Seasonal trend could be our friend there. Could end up in the sweet spot by game time. I know there’s blocking and a 50/50 in play, which could shunt the storm too far south / east, but I’d WAY rather be in this spot at day 6-7 instead of it showing a NYC to Boston blizzard. The trend all year is for things to become more amped / earlier phasing as we get closer. Of course we could over-amp and we’re screwed in a totally different way, but if a Miller b is going to show up as a fail at this range, I’d way rather models show a flat solution to our south than some amped bomb at our latitude. Model spread is still significant. We’re going to have to be patient over the coming days as tough as that is

Correct. Euro has a better verification score

If I wanted any model to be over amplifying the initial wave at this range, it’d be the OP Euro. Rooting for that EPS mean depiction all day long. .

Not really sure that mean, if it played out exactly as depicted, would be “devastating” for us. If a coastal were to pop off the SC coastline and bomb out near Virginia, I’m pretty positive my area would get a warning level event. The ensemble mean tracks the primary to Kentucky. Now… the OP would certainly be devastating as it pops the coastal near ocean city and it bombs out way too late. .

ensemble mean = major snowstorm for DC to BOS OP = major snowstorm for central NJ to BOS The difference? The ensemble mean pops the coastal off the coast of NC/SC, instead of ocean city. Both outcomes crush the nyc metro. The ensemble mean depiction gets the mid Atlantic in on the action too.

The Euro OP is a no go for us and a major SNE special…. But the EPS mean is way further south with where it pops the coastal (off the coast at the NC SC border) and then absolutely bombs out off the VA coast as it heads NE. Big difference for our area between those outcomes. Coastal pop near ocean city = fuck you to us coastal pop near South Carolina = we’re in the game Coastal pops at 150 - 6.25 days from now. FINALLY within 7 days.

Just a small difference between the OP and ensemble mean with where the coastal develops. [emoji23]

Nice spread of MSLP on that ensemble. Have to love the complete change in evolution among models. Our first look fails, and we end up with a different type of threat altogether. Issue is… it’s a Miller B. We all know the easiest way to fail with Miller B’s and who they typically favor. Long way to go though.

Been tracking snow long enough as a NY native to know this setup is absolutely prime for the NYC metro into SNE. The NW suburbs of NYC from NE NJ to the Lower Hudson valley through CT are going to get buried under 2+ feet if tonight’s euro is remotely correct. Growing up in that area, coastal jumps to this general vicinity off OC and a crawling, deepening low means a MAJOR storm for them; a blizzard at that. We need the primary to track way further south for our latitude to score with this. The thing is.. this time… we actually have the mechanism in place to allow such a trend to potentially unfold. (What the EPS mean shows versus the OP which tracks the primary further north and redevelops a coastal further north off OC) Not saying we hit flush… but areas NW of I-95 are very much in the game from DCA north. The fail risk is pretty high here though. March 15-17th still seems to be our best chance.

We’re the new charlotte baby! My area over to PSU had a very good 2020, but that is seeming more and more like a complete fluke. Outside of that, it’s barely snowed besides Jan 2016 and march 2018. Pretty depressing to think about.

That, or moving (if feasible) if snow is paramount to your mental wellbeing. Seems silly to say, but I know folks who’ve moved to snow belts because they love it so much.

You’d have to jeb wobble! .

Being right about the million ways we can now fail must be exhausting man. About to move to Lake Tahoe and call it a day [emoji23] .

Yep. My bitter soul from this train wreck of a winter has been somewhat restored making this trip up to NY. This is my current view as I’m stoned and drunk at the bar. Almost shed a tear of joy watching snow accumulate. [emoji23] I turned to my girlfriend and said “is this shit really happening?”

Lovely scene out there currently

At the bar for this surprise bday party, look outside, and the snow machines apparently turned back on. Some trailing bands coming through. Could push them to a foot when all is said and done. The melt factor was real today though. Watched the snow disappear from hour to hour under sunlight. Hoping I can bring winter back with me to the MA!

I like how your last post said you’re not worried it’ll go south at 00z and then you come back with the pessimism less than an hour later. When the snow chances arise, so does the old Ji [emoji23]