jayyy

As MJO phase 8 settles in and strengthens and wave 1 passes us by… have a feeling we’ll see wave 2 and beyond trend more favorably for us. Especially if we pop that ridge out west like some models are hinting at. Had a few runs where a Boise ridge popped up leading into waves 2 & 3. We’ve got an active pattern with 3+ waves to track between now and the 21st. Hard to imagine models will have a clear picture on waves 2 and beyond before wave 1 is out of the picture. If wave 2 looks awful on Saturday, then I’ll reassess. It’s march.. so naturally the climb is steep for us, especially closer to the coast… but i’m nowhere near giving up on this window, especially waves 2 and 3, which have been our best chances all along. Ideally, the setup that gets ushered in after wave 1 should be the tee up for waves 2 and 3 to work their magic. [emoji1696] One can only hope at this point.

Hi-Res Euro. Very similar low placement as the ICON. It too doesn’t gain enough latitude and slides east. Close but no cigar.

ICON as well. Miller B setup with a primary redeveloping off NC. Primary gets too far north into SW PA. Close but not quite.

RGEM is a near miss for wave 1

That cold enough aspect is a huge problem though. Areas closer to the coast will need to rely on rates in mid march with 0c 850 temps — this will at best be unfolding in a marginal airmass. It’s certainly possible but it’s definitely tougher now than December - February. If we had that 1050+ high that was being depicted on models last week, we’d be talking about a potential HECS and would have less to worry about in the temp department. It’s going to take good timing and a well timed / placed low bomb out for this to produce the type of snow many of us are starving for. If the desired outcome is areawide pink on the clown maps, it’s going to be very difficult to achieve. Think folks need to be realistic about this one, especially SE of 287/87

Already giving up 8-9 days out. Oy. I swear, at this point the snow gods are just fucking with us and fulfilling the it’s never going to snow prophecy [emoji28]

No. There’s a 5-6” zone from his house to mine lol NW Baltimore county over to NE Carroll

18z EPS, wave 2. 144 = day 6. Bring it.

Day 6 too. I’ll be damned.

Even hits my area with 5”+ in the elevations of N MD. Nice shift for wave 1 for sure. Day 4 is a great range to see improvements pop up on the EC. My folks live in Rockland county (new city) so I’m always in here and rooting for you guys as well. We all need some love these next 2 weeks.

I believe I read that Phase 8 transitioning into Phase 1 is best at the tail end of a niña (it’s all but dead) But a very strong phase 8 is far superior to the phase 5,6, and especially 7 horseshit we’ve been dealing with for so long . Phase 7 is a catastrophe for our area during a niña. Niña = dead, so the impact of each phase is slightly different. Ideally, we get to 1 (models say we should get there) but a strong 8 is the second best we could ask for. .

We can call that run Lieutenant Dan

Samsies. Perfect range for it to start swinging our way. I’d take 5”. Yeah, I said it. .

Perfect place to be? Just a bit too progressive at D8ish. .

lol, it’s ok Ralph. No need to get defensive. You’ve certainly been one of the few alongside me, PSU, cape and Brooklyn who’ve been optimistic. .

Depends on rates for sure. I watched it snow a foot this weekend with temps just above freezing. Rates overcame. Sure, it melted quick, but I’d take 1-3” up here from wave 1 in a heartbeat. Especially with wave 2 right on its heels. Rates would be a concern for sure. No models are showing the thump we’d need to overcome.

It was from NYC, and the frame before isn’t exactly a death sentence for our forum either. Plenty of lows in positions we can score in. I get what you’re saying, but that’s not really the case with what I shared.

Comparing means in completely different patterns. We had a garbage pattern all winter outside of a week or two in December. I get your pessimism. We all do. But saying it won’t play out simply because it didn’t before isn’t exactly a legit reason to downplay the possibility. I get it though man. It’s rough out here.

Trend is slowly being our friend for a change. Certainly not going to see the big hit JMAs been teasing us with for wave 1… but there’s enough time IMO for a 1-3” type event to come together like euro is depicting. Things coming together a bit too late / east at D4 isn’t an awful place to be given the seasonal trend of things amping up as we approach game time. Wave 2 and 3 are by far our better chance at something significant, but as a Highlander, I am certainly not going to write off wave 1 entirely at this range. No way.

Except the frame before is fine for us I’d say at this range. .

Who gives a shit where it comes from [emoji23] .

Waves 1&2 are officially now within 7 days

Storm 2

Storms 1&2 per 12z euro Love seeing pink and purples over my house here in northern MD. I am under 2” for the entire season. .

Still in phase 7. Not ideal for our snow chances. Hopefully we transition to 8 very shortly.