jayyy

6” being the floor at 12z certainly isn’t bad. The past couple of years we all would have literally cried for a 6” storm. Now half the forum is disappointed that every single model doesn’t show 12-24” 4.5 days out lol. Weenies be weenieing

Odd. The Canadian and GFS essentially swapped their h5 progressions and outcomes lol. Fucking Canadians

Not really a huge NW drift. The heavy stuff is still way south of dc. Just a drastic expansion of the heavy snow shield on the NW side of the storm and more evenly distributed.

12z finally fully phases and bombs out. What an incredible run. Watch it show 3-6” at 0z [emoji23]

It’ll get a clue by Monday

Baltimore gets 2 feet. Lord

That’s 10:1 too. It’ll be above that for many

The difference between 17 and 20 inches from 0z to 6z 5 days out isn’t really losing anything lol

A great run for all of us and it seems pretty realistic honestly. Obviously we may end up with less than 17” but I do think it’s most likely an nyc long island and SNE jackpot scenario. The euro progression is a classic for that area. Still, 17” is nothing to sneeze at from here to philly. Love the distribution!

Agree. 18-22 degrees, 20+ over a huge area from Nova to NYC and cold afterward so it sticks around. Def a low end HECS

Not for nothing… every major ensemble had this past Wednesday as a big hit for us 5+ days out and the OPs said nope. Turned out they were right.

It’s cool. We’ll just pretend it’s 2008 and that the GFS is of course too flat / late on phasing. Back then you could legit bank on it being 100-200 miles too far SE. Every. Single. Time. Go out to Fucking Sea is what some folks called it [emoji23]

Crazy dispersement of heavy snow from VA to NYC .

He’s busy measuring the exact degree latitude of the 50-50

Philly forum too drunk from the eagles parade to post the maps? Kidding. It’s a bomb for you guys too. Who has the zoomed out maps

20+ area wide is arguably a HECS in my book

High ratio powder for many. What a run. That h5 progression was legit

Snow maps above. 2 feet for Baltimore lol

Sign me up. 20” contour over mi casa

Somewhere between 0 and 20 inches. Enlightening. Idk how he does it.

Its SE / progressive bias is back

Perfect example. 60-72 hours AFTER this point is plenty of time for the storm in Canada to move out and for the storm out west to get its act together. We have seen large snowstorms follow warmer rainy storms that drop the boundary south numerous times. Skepticism is warranted, especially for a 12+” outcome in a niña… but if the rationale is wave spacing, that’s not it. I do agree about the path to failure if it were to happen - a progressive solution that hits east if timing isn’t just right. We’ll see. If models are still honking come Sunday, it’s very much game on. We DO get lucky in niñas from time to time, and it seems to want to snow this year.

That Saturday wave is riding “on the heels” of a storm that just dropped 8-10” of snow in southern MD on Wednesday. 4 days after Saturday is plenty of separation for another storm to brew and for the necessary pieces to move into place. Yes, it has higher fail risk than a big southern stream gulf low in a niño for instance… but it’s certainly doable. 4 major models all showed how tonight. Betting on 12-20” in a niña is never a safe bet by any means, but it’s also not impossible given the setup. Timing is everything though.

Queue the uproar if these exact solutions don’t hold for 6 straight days [emoji23]

He did call 2/20 as the kick off… and also asked for amped solutions by tonight’s runs. Snow whisperer over there