jayyy

At least it’s the 3k and not the 12k… Let’s see if we can get this thing trending a few degrees colder over the next 48 hours. .

So close but no cigar for the metros .

Weather app is still bullish [emoji1787][emoji23]

It’s okay guys, we’re gonna wake up to a 6z NAMing .

A low level warning event is still in the cards in my neck of the woods in Carroll county. Not counting us out just yet. Still think we see things shift a bit further SE between now and tomorrow night. This is the appetizer in the upcoming pattern. MLK day and beyond is gonna be a smoke show. Can feel it in my bones.

NAM thermals + euro track = yes please

One thing is for sure… NAM has an actual system there, which is certainly better than 18z’s depiction of a non system .

Put on those rally caps ladies & gents. 00z is gonna reel this sucker in. You know, better sampling and such. .

Waiting for our at range NAMing [emoji854] .

You have bad feelings when it’s literally snowing outside. “I can see the back edge in Nashville” .

Indeed. I’d take that pink shading and run with it .

Here we go again… 18z ticks SE, 0z will likely tick further SE…. Rinse and repeat .

You are arguing semantics. Take this “discussion” elsewhere.

That’s what the 0z NAM at range is good for [emoji13] .

HoCo MoCo death flurry band .

That’s honestly the reason why I’m not sold on any given outcome for I-95 and points WNW. Snow totals range from 0.5 to 8+” IMBY depending on the model you believe and we’re only 4ish days out. Shit, we might as well dust off the JMA for this one. What other solutions can we throw at the wall at this point… .

The 18z NAM is essentially a frontal wave. That was pretty pathetic [emoji854] .

Did you say HECS? Lmao. Come on now. .

I was mostly being sarcastic there. It definitely makes logical sense that having better / more recent data is helpful in nailing down the details, especially when you’re living on the margins like we are. Hopefully when all the players are on the “field” we see models tick back in our direction a bit (00z tonight will be very telling IMO) The differences in evolution between my area seeing 1-2” and 6-8” are very minute, so anything’s really possible at this point. .

Huh? Clippers still exist? [emoji41] .

Thought the better sampling aspect was a debunked theory… guess not. .

Talk about a nailbiter. The smallest adjustments in LP track, LP strength, HP position / strength (confluence) drastically change our areas outcome from run to run. Models did a great job overall with the synoptic setup at range, but they are struggling with the minute details. Would be badass to score a coup within 72 hours but we may be a bit too early in this pattern. If we had this back and forth going on a week later, I’d def feel better about our chances. If 00z looks colder again tonight, this board is going to have some severe whiplash

Is this going to be another day (like yesterday) where 6z & 12z look blah and things trend better at 18z and 00z? Or is this the start of a sustained trend for the worse? 18z and especially 00z will be very telling. If they continue the negative trend, then many of us are in pretty rough shape - even up my way. If models bounce back in our direction, we’re still in the game. Guess the only “positive” thing here is that these differences are *relatively* small from run to run. We have been very much on the margins all along, so as PSU said, being a couple of degrees warmer on certain runs is the difference maker. Even the runs that looked good (0z gfs cmc Ukie and icon from last night) it was a pretty close call with a very sharp gradient. Showed 6-10” near Baltimore but just a couple inches along the bay. That’s a razor thin margin. The good news is that mountains don’t need to be moved to get us back in the game. We don’t need huge shifts. If models are underestimating cold or the strength of the low by just a bit, we are well within the margin to bounce back. The bad news is that we are starting to run out of time here. Can’t remember the last time models had a storm, lost it, and got it back within 72-84hrs.

That’s a sweet tool for sure. Also, it’s in meters incase anyone overlooked that part. My old house in west EC was apparently around 320 feet elevation (higher than I thought tbh). My house in union bridge is at 469ft. Not too shabby. Man. This is gonna be a nailbiter. .

00z EPS MSLP - 2 mb weaker vs 12z HP - 2mb stronger vs 12z Confluence - better Track - a smidge further offshore .