jayyy

NAM almost makes you think for a moment that snow is heading our way… but I’m going to go out on a limb and say that dynamics shift east shortly after this frame. The southern vort is more consolidated and digging looks improved, but the positive results of that will probably only bear fruit to our NE.

Pretty much the first time all winter where we have a SS born storm with the 540 line WAY south of us leading in. On march 20th haha. This solution ends up being suppressed like the GFS, but the 00z last night tracked that storm directly up the coast with heavy snow for most of us. The euro also looks to be hinting at this same general idea. We do tend to see big storms pop up at the tail end of good patterns as they begin to break down, and it is the end of march so clashing air masses are bound to pop a big storm somewhere. The question remains whether or not we can get things to line up just right. GFS looks like it wants to brew another big storm in the gulf around the 27th. Our time is short but the pattern is certainly active and the window isn’t fully closed just yet. Especially for inland areas. I won’t be tracking as closely over the next few days, but my interest is still there for the 17th-27th window.

00z Canadian last night also had that look at day 10. Big storm up the coast with heavy snow. At least it was a Miller A for a change [emoji23]

If the Albany NY area gets the 12-20” models are hinting at for the 14th storm, they’ll be above 60” for the winter. That would be their third foot plus event in the past couple weeks. My parents are currently located roughly 35-40 miles NW of NYC and are barely in double digits for the season. Another 20 or so miles to the NW in orange county NY, they are above 25” (below average but much closer) NYC is facing potential futility. The Ohio valley over to Chicago has had a rough winter in terms of lack of snowfall as well. The west coast has been getting dumped on as we all know. 30-40 feet on the ground in some areas. The coastal plain and areas within 50 or so miles of it has definitely been the most impacted, especially up in NE. Niña played a big part, but it also feels like the scales tipping back toward the norm. I can recall plenty of winters from the early 2000s through 2015 where the coast fared better than inland areas during nor’easters due to an overall lack of coastal huggers. I remember plenty of storms where Long Island and SE CT got buried while the lower Hudson valley saw a few inches, despite much better climo. There was one storm where Long Island saw 2 feet and my parents saw 3-4”. Best dynamics were further east and such. CAPE fared better than inland areas in our neck of the woods not too long ago as well. It’s only natural that we see winters where inland areas fare much better than the coast. It’s really hard to pinpoint exactly what’s going on in a general sense because the outcomes vary so much from year to year. 2010 and 2015 seem like an eternity ago, but they really weren’t in the grand scheme of things. It’s become pretty obvious that we now need a more perfect setup to cash in and that it’s harder to snow via good timing in a bad to average pattern, but we definitely need more data before sounding the alarm too loud IMO. I really want to see what a moderate niño winter looks like going forward. If we can break above climo, all hope is not lost… we just know our down years will be especially crappy. Seems like we’re heading in a all or nothing direction. It’s entirely possible that we could still have winters where we see two or more big storms that put us well above climo, but also see more winters where we don’t break double digits, keeping our annual average roughly the same. I hope we get at least one decent event before this winter ends. This will still be one of the worst winters ever, but at least all of the tracking we’ve done won’t be for absolutely nothing.

I’m with you til’ the end man. You’ve been saying the 17-22 window is our best shot all along. Going to be tough for dc and points south, but I haven’t given up hope for our neck of the woods. Give me ONE flush hit and then I’ll gladly close the door on this winter and look forward to winter 23-24

I’m beyond frustrated that it looks like we’re FINALLY going to enter a more SS dominant regime as climo is eroding quickly. Perhaps that leads to a last second score for our latitude, but man… if only we could have had this setup during peak climo. I honestly would not be shocked if your area over to mine and PSU scores during the final week of march or we get an April Fools storm. That’d be completely appropriate given this winter.

12z euro is colder and more dynamic than the Ukie. 10:1 is very unlikely but a range of 0-12” for Boston and the immediate NYC suburbs sounds like a fun time for Mets up there trying to make a forecast for a storm that’s only a few days away. I don’t envy NWS or local Mets trying to inform the public on this one.

“I’ve done a shit load of research and have come to the conclusion that no matter how many favorable teleconnections are setup, there will always be something to fuck it up for us” - winter 22-23 .

On the bright side, UKMET says sorry to NYC and Boston as well. Rough 36 hours for the NYC metro sheesh. Places just inland around 287 went from 40” to 2” within a day and a half on this model.

Other models drive a primary up into freaking Ohio… then we see a coastal low up too far east for us that bombs out south of NE. Appears that the JMA says nope, we’re going to keep the primary show to the south and ride it up the coast. GFS gives most of us a paltry .1 QPF. I know JMA is trash, but what the actual fuck lol Only 48-72 hours out

The above QPF map is the result…. .5”-1” QPF from North Carolina through DC, Baltimore, philly… 1”+ in ENJ, NYC, and SNE and damn near 1.75” for LI Completely different evolution than every other model. I know it’s a trash model but good lord. 6z GFS by comparison gives the mid Atlantic near Virginia and Maryland 0.1 of QPF. Crazy how it can be so wrong only 2 days out. Perhaps it’s a lack of data.

At hour 72 (12 hour intervals on the JMA) we have a tucked in low south of Long Island. One can only infer that the JMA tracked that low in Georgia up the coastline. (Miller A style)

The JMA is almost laughable at this point. We’re talking about being a mere 48-72 hours out from the most important part of the evolution of the 14th storm. Check this out… here’s 48hr. We have a low down along the GULF states

.5 - 1” of QPF happens. Lmao.

Frame 2…. 72 hours. What happens in the 12 hours in between?

LOL, is the JMA serious? 48-72 hours out from the storm’s evolution and it’s showing a Miller A? Frame 1 @ 48

Only 240 hours out. What could go wrong? [emoji38]

If the 17th and/or 21st waves pan out, they’ll be dubbed the PSU storms

Complete bust coming for my folks area (new city). 3-6” advisory lowered to 2-5” but I doubt they even see 1-2” at this rate. RGEM was spot on.

Yep. Of course the chances are lower than in January - February… but it’s certainly not impossible. The setup is much better for us for the 17th and 21st waves for the reasons PSU has been laying out for the past week or two. A SS driven storm versus a NS driven storm gives us a much better shot at seeing an earlier coastal develop. Late season makes it hard, but not impossible. I’ve seen plenty of late march / early April snows before. Location of course helps, but I won’t be fully tapping out until after the 25th or so.

Pretty big bust tonight for my parents area NW of NYC. NWS had an advisory up for 3-6” earlier, but they’re at 39 degrees with rain currently. If they manage to flip, they MAY get an inch or two if they get lucky.

Now let’s look at the wave around the 20th… VERY similar longwave setup, except there’s no NS feature to over-complicate things. Instead, we are left with a robust SS wave that can run underneath and blow up early. What you’re left with is tonight’s 00z Canadian. A storm that develops and blows up off the SE coast and runs up the coastline. It seems like a small difference in the grand scheme of things, but it has massive implications downstream. If the 17th and 21st waves have the above setup at H5, we’re in business. The fail risk is the timing (late march versus early to mid march) but it’s feasible. The NS is destroying this 14th threat for NYC and points SW.

The setup for the 14th…. A Pacific trough, some riding popping out west, -NAO, and a 50/50. Prime setup right? Yes…. except for one thing. That pesky feature marked X. It ruins things. Why? It’s a NS wave running nearly parallel with the SS wave. For this to work, X needs to lead Y in the flow and dig. X was not present on most models over the past week (like on the GFS / GEFS,) and that’s why it showed the desired outcome for NYC. It’s now catching up the the reality of a NS driven Miller B sadly.

It’s snowed in late march before. Over a foot in DC actually. And my area can certainly get crushed in late march. Not everyone lives where you live bud.

If this storm unfolded as depicted… originating over FL and riding the coast like that with a 50-50 and blocking in place, we’d be talking more than 3-5”