jayyy

It’s not actually a big reset. The EPS reloads the block and the southern stream becomes active again 3-4 days after things “break down” .

Good loooord .

Lost power quite a few times this evening. Roar, says the wind. .

PSU touched upon this earlier. Cooler water temps and SSTs in feb & march help in marginal areas like ours. Deep December cold has become a lot less common and therefore it’s taking longer for ocean / lake temps to cool off. Have to imagine the Great Lakes are much warmer than usual for this time of year. Also means the LES machine is about to go ape shit when the real cold comes starting next week .

Just keep swimming…

Also think some people’s definition of what “accurate” means is severely misguided. If guidance 2-3 weeks out shows a pattern change and a potential storm or two but ends up being a few days late / early on the arrival of the cold air and 100 miles off with SLP track, that’s still astonishingly accurate from that lead. Models nailed last storm from very far out, they simply missed some of the finer details that determined exactly where sufficiently cold air (for snow) would be. Now, if we’re talking minute details (exact track, R/S line, etc) we really shouldn’t be taking any solution outside 5 days verbatim. That’s never changed. Sure, models have been upgraded and are a bit more accurate, but it’s extremely rare that any model gets all details correct outside of 3 days. The issue is we want models to give us our desired outcome, and when they don’t, they “suck” or they are misleading. They’re not misleading. We’re misleading ourselves most of the time based on our emotions regarding desired outcome.

Precip type aside… the sheer size of this storm and its widespread impacts from the gulf to the Midwest to New England is very impressive. .

Definitely concerned about flooding in my parents neck of the woods. They saw that foot of mashed potatoes you mentioned in the Hudson valley. They’re currently snowing at 30 degrees on the frontend but it’ll be 40 and pouring rain later on. Gonna be uuuugly for some areas up that way.

Meh, MJO impact is overrated. We’ve seen too many phase 8-1’s fail and phase 4-5 succeed to believe it’s somehow the end all be all for our chances to get snow. A factor? Sure. One of a many. But the MJO is always so overblown on this forum. .

I envy your positivity. Truly. .

Welcome to the Himalayas! .

Idk, maybe it’s just me but I’d almost prefer to see a SVA/NC snowstorm at this lead than a bullseye given this years trend of things coming well north once we hit day 4-5. Especially if the setup is a southern stream low tracking west to east along the boundary. I know there’s a fear of suppression given the evolution at H5, but I’d rather take the possibility that the boundary is being depicted too far south / the block / 50-50 are being depicted a tad too strong over trying to thread the needle again. Also, just a reminder for those feeling like debbing today after a disappointing outcome yesterday, that many of us live in the central DMV, where climo is roughly 20-30” per year. For the lowlands / 95 crew, that’s pretty much two solid storms or one biggie with a medium , etc. I know it feels like Deja vu and things are being punted, but backloaded winters (late Jan thru early march) are commonplace around these parts in a niño. Yes, we sometimes score an early season storm in niño heads, but we’ve also been shutout going into mid January before as well and ended up with a solid winter. Just need to be a BIT more patient. It sucks, I get it, but our time will come. Going to be a rollercoaster to get there it appears, but we will see snow, and likely multiple snows in a relatively short span. Big thanks to cape psu heisy Brooklyn terp & those tracking the LR and breaking it down for us.

Saw a foot up here in Orange County NY at my parents house. 7.5 of which fell in a 3 hour span. Mashed potatoes FTW. Pretty awesome storm. .

Oh boy. Flooding is gonna be a major issue in the northeast if those qpf amounts are anywhere near accurate. .

Awesome! Honestly, that was one of the best snows I’ve witnessed in years... and I’ve witnessed a bunch of absolute maulers in my life living in the elevations of the Hudson Valley for over 25 years, as well as our big storms from 2010 through now down in the DMV area. The combo of the rates to end that storm with the sheer size of the snowflakes, it was an amazing sight. There are a bunch of reports of upwards of 9” of snow falling in under 3 hours in some areas from NEPA into the Hudson valley toward Newburgh. Some models (GFS RGEM etc) nailed the existence of that deathband, but were off with its location. My soul needed that. 11.8” of snow is the official report from Middletown. Reports of 14+” to my NE near Poughkeepsie, which was ground zero for that band. .

Well worth the drive up here. Over 4” so far. Over 1” per hour rates currently. Should end up around 9” at this rate. The holiday period is REALLY rough in my line of work. Amazing what a good snow can do for your mental wellbeing. Hope to bring winter back home with me [emoji1696]

But they were doo(dy) .

Finally, a legit jebwalk. Time to unplug and just enjoy the snow for a while. 1.5” and moderate snow up at my parents house. 28 degrees winds from the ENE at 10 mph Temp DOWN 3 degrees since precip began. Latest Upton NWS update calling for 8-10” .

Weather station at home in union bridge shows 33 and my cam shows POURING rain. Man, we just can’t catch a damn break in our area. Congrats to those along the mason Dixon line north of Frederick who seem to have at least managed a respectable storm. .

Dry air finally being broken through up this way. Had about 3 hours of virga. Light snow and 30 degrees. Latest warning bumped totals down from 6-12 to 5-10 so we’ll see what happens. Quick moving system so I’ll believe it when I see it

Good. Sorry not sorry, but some folks may need to step away for a week and come back. They’ll be much happier when they do. .

Looks like they got the start time way wrong up this way. Snowing in NEPA already. Will have flakes falling here by 1pm at this rate. .

Looks like some decent rates finally at my house in UB per the cam

Roads look clear.. time to Jeb!

My coworker just texted me and said ice pellets are falling with mangled in flakes near Columbia mall. Come onnnn, bring on those heavier returns. Would love to see the 95 crew get in on the action for a bit.