jayyy

At this point I might as well go visit my Alma mater (university at buffalo) if I want to see some legit snow. Last week’s foot in NY helped soothed my weenie soul but I need more.

Watch the 00z NAM show what we want [emoji1787] .

Thread jinx is real. Prove me wrong. .

Shit I’d take a nice advisory level event at this point. Get the ball rolling heading into peak climo and a prime pattern window .

JV for sure, but it’s halfway decent within the 48-60 hour timeframe, which is where some of these key differences are occurring. As you said, better to have it on our side than not.

Agreed. That being said…. For as much shit as that model gets… is a threat REALLY there without a proper NAMing? Just sayin’. We haven’t had a proper NAMing all season and I have 3” to show for it (shut it Ravensrule) .

Next up… the WRF-GONADS .

You must be a life coach. .

We REALLY need some areawide snow [emoji1787] Some in here are for real traumatized by the last few years and it shows. NAM at range is just that, but it does handle the energy out west very similarly to the GFS Ukie CMC in the short term, where it at least has *some* semblance of credibility. Would love to see the euro start trending our way by 00z tomorrow once that Midwest storm has mostly cleared. This is a possible long duration event (Monday night start) but some models show a later Tuesday - Wednesday impact, so we’re still pretty far out as far as “meteorological time” is concerned. Buckle up. Going to be a “fun” next 72-96 hours of tracking.

At least the euro only has the icon on its side currently. GFS CMC Ukie combo is nice for our area but I agree with PSU… would rather have the euro on our side than not. It’s the best model for a reason. Would like to see it make a legit move toward the other camp sooner than later. Good news is we’re still 4 days out or so .

Or… you don’t give a crap about the difference between 1” of rain at 45 degrees or 1.5” of rain at 55 degrees when you know it won’t be snow. You just don’t notice when things change. Models showed a ton of rain over us leading into last storm and many busted low in qpf. You just didn’t care because you weren’t emotionally attached to the outcome. .

Thank you. Best shot we’ve had so far this winter and people are already cliff jumping over model waffles 5 days out. Gfs just showed a solid event and it’s still depressing as phuck in here. .

GGEM GFS consensus anyone? Kinda hilarious that the cities have seen no snow in 2 years and now 5”+ for Baltimore proper is a “rugpull”. We’d pretty much all be jumping for joy if that GFS run played out verbatim. A low along the coast with no precip issues? Sign me up. Come on. It’s way too early for this nonsense talk. At least save it for Sunday.

I know suppression is more of a risk than the opposite this go around with the tpv squashing things, but if someone asked where we’d prefer things to be 5 days out… we’d say SE of us 99% of the time. Perhaps models are pressing the tpv a bit too much and we end up with an areawide 3-6” type event. I’d way rather be on the cold side of things with room for things to move N / be more amped than praying for less amped / more progressive as it rarely plays out that way. .

00z gfs anyone? Since we’ve got one a weird tangent about next winter already and ji is posting 500mb maps for 11 months out. .

The initial part of the storm will be hitting in sub 100 hours come tomorrow mornings runs. Saturday 00z will be the real test. Once that cutter comes and goes, how do models look? So close, yet so far.

Been a while since I’ve seen you genuinely excited for a longwave pattern that sets up for more than a brief window of time. Probably since feb 2022, but even then, I believe you were cautiously optimistic as the typical caveats applied. Been a while since we haven’t had to rely on everything lining up perfectly. The tall tale sign of a good MA snow pattern is having numerous ways to score, not just one outcome that requires 5-6-7 different things to lineup perfectly. The CFS and other ensembles do look ridiculously good for February. Delayed but not denied if that were to pan out. Yes, it’s somewhat annoying that we’ve had to wait til 1/16 and beyond to see snow in our area but in reality, that’s only about 3’ish weeks into winter and we all know February is our money maker. All it takes is a decent or better showing from one or both of these next waves (16th and 20th) and an active February to put us above climo - potentially well above climo. IF models are correct about February showcasing a pattern that sustains a -AO/NAO/EPO regime, then woof. I also agree that if we have those lined up, we don’t want some big dog +PNA. Congrats NYC and new England if that happens. Give me a reloading -AO - NAO -EPO with a near neutral PNA and I bet we score big. Things are obviously going to shift around a bit, but models have generally nailed the longwave pattern 2-3-4 weeks out since fall. Exciting times, no doubt. .

GEM being on its own is exactly what we want honestly. I’d take a GFS EURO combo all day. .

Seriously? 6-10” areawide with high ratios isn’t a good run for you? Why would we want this thing to amp up and introduce possible temp issues? What you’re rooting for is going to end in a NYC and NE special, I guarantee it. Also, the OP GFS too cold /SE bias isn’t much of a thing anymore since it’s latest upgrade. It led the charge with that last storm showing it further north. From time to time it’s a bit too progressive at h5, but not like it used to be when you could pretty much guarantee the gfs would trend NW by 250+ miles around day 3-4. This storm was never going to be historic, and rooting for some jacked up wave that results from a complicated evolution rarely works out for our latitude. The first storm in a prime window rarely does. It’s the follow up wave or 2 once the colds been established and the boundarys been dragged south that typically hits big for us. Not sure why’d we’d want to complicate things further for this first storm when our airmass isn’t as established as it will be around the 20th.

We’re waiting on models to fully resolve the cutter and then the Monday night - wed AM timeframe. No shot in sam hell models have the 20th pinned down. One threat at a time ladies. I knew the gfs looked good by the sheer number of replies in this thread when I opened the app. Let’s GO

Seriously. If models were to *hypothetically* look like this the night before the storm hit (I know, it very likely won’t… but if it did) I’d prob stay at my brothers place closer to 95 to enjoy it. Would I take 5-7” of cold smoke? Hell yes. In a heartbeat. I don’t want hear squat about needing a HECS, Ji. An areawide high advisory to low end warning snowfall with temps well below freezing and high ratios (probably near 15:1 with these temps) would do wonders for this subforum’s morale. Only needing 0.5” of QPF to get half a foot would be sweet. Plus, who wouldn’t like some snowcover heading into the 19th and beyond?

Terp is right about that cutter. It’s a big storm and will impact how things look up top leading into the 16-17th event. Models are trying their best to hone in on the 500mb setup, but it’s pretty clear that theyre having trouble deciphering what’s going on given the significant run to run changes at h5 on each model. Once that cutter comes and goes, the envelope of outcomes should tighten drastically. I actually thought today’s trends at 500mb were encouraging. Surface didn’t quite get there due to timing / strength of certain features but there’s plenty of time for those pieces to come together between now and Tuesday. Snow mean on the EPS looked the best it’s looked all season earlier today. The GEPS median looks much better tonight as well. It’s doable, but we will need a little luck to get there - as always. Pretty obvious we all want to see something significant after what we’ve endured the past few years, but I’d sure as heck take a light to moderate snow event to get everyone on the board and get this late winter snow rally started. Some snow cover leading into the 19th and beyond when the longwave pattern gets tasty AF? Yes please. .

Got my beer and a joint ready to go. Mid-Atlantic country, let’s ride. .

^ boom

Maybe he’s trying reverse psychology where he doesn’t post every single snow map and it comes to fruition. Hell, weather53 just had their come to jeebus moment above regarding models showing outcome possibilities and not being a forecast in their own right. Ya never know [emoji1787] .