jayyy

Seems like a realistic depiction accounting for better lift / temps up this way but having the qpf jack closer to 95. Agreed though. More likely you see that 3-4” in that secondary jack than DC metro but who knows. .

What we need to do is create threads and then a second thread when everything goes to shit on models at the day 4-5 range. That’s the key! .

First day of our weather changing for sure. Upper air longwave pattern certainly changed before today. .

Just stopped at my brothers house in Ellicott city near turf valley and their mulch and colder surfaces have a trace / dusting, but nothing on streets / sidewalks. .

Right along 95 or JUST NW in places like Howard county, NW Baltimore county, E MoCo appears to be where many models are keying in for those possible 3-4” amounts. Love to see it .

It hasn’t been any better here the past couple of years. At 3” on the season. Not exactly a huge difference between my house and my old house in Ellicott city since 2022 honestly. Nice to see it snowing everywhere for a change. Also appears Howard county will do better than my area on Tuesday as well if most models are correct about the just west of 95 mini jack. I’ll be working that day so I’m excited to be there for it.

I think it’s very short lived. Reloading should happen rapidly like Bob alluded to. .

NAM GFS Euro and Ukie all aligned on this it seems. 2-3” with 4” lollipops on some models JUST outside the metros. .

Ellicott city - highway 29. I’d call this moderate snow for sure. Temp dropping like a rock .

Appears to be colder / heavier at home. Got some accumulation baby!! .

Confirmed: it can still snow in the lowlands. 37 and snowing leaving a work meeting in Columbia .

All. The. Damn. Time. The main campus for university at buffalo is in Amherst, which is a north town. They’d get 3-6” sometimes more on the northern edge of band. Or there’d be times we’d get zero and 5 miles south near south campus in buffalo would have 18”. It goes from blizzard conditions to sunny conditions outside those bands. It’s incredible. .

My friend shared this this morning from Hamburg NY. Absolute blizzard out there with 3-4” per hour rates

Show us! (I’m at a work meeting so I can’t deep dive)

Reasonable for a change. Hate when I agree with him, makes me feel dirty.

Could be a mini jack somewhere in between. NW enough for better temps, SE enough for precip. Dare I say HoCo- BalCo area? Been looking that way on a lot of guidance over the past 24 hours.

At least you know you’d always have lake effect. I graduated from the university of buffalo and it’s honestly like nothing else. 2-4” of snow per hour, sometimes higher - thunder snow at times from these bands and insane winds. That band is easily 3-4” per hour. And they have another SW wind driven LES event comes Tuesday - Wednesday which is typically a long-fetch high impact event. The best place to move around there is the southtowns. Orchard Park where the Bills play is a prime spot down to around Fredonia.

Snow squall warnings up in PA this morning. Love to see it

Most models showing a general 1-3” with some showing lollipop 4-5” amounts in localized qpf maxes. Let’s see how things look tomorrow and lock it in.

Welp… snow is streaming over from Tennessee, which is usually our winning path. Just not the usual way we get there.

AKA the snap the BWI/DCA streak probability map

Can we extRAPPolate this for us or what?

Emotions and the ridiculous theory that it can’t snow here anymore lol

It would be pretty epic to see models 48 hour us back into a legit coastal but honestly, I’d take this current solution of a prolonged light to occasionally moderate snow event. It’s going to look and feel wintry out there and the metros should hopefully finally break their streaks. Let’s get everyone on the board at this point.

3-3.5” to get me to 6-6.5” for the season heading into prime climo and a solid looking longwave pattern? Why not. Sign me up.