jayyy

Doesn’t it have a better verification score than the GFS though? Or am I tripping

2 long range runs of the GEFS - which were certainly pretty ugly vs. prior runs - sent this sub into a frenzy of sorts. To say we need some snow would be an understatement. Pretty sure many in here would cry happy tears to just wake up to an inch of snow at this point. Glad to see the GEFS remembered we’re in a niño this morning. Poor CAPE has had to keep these weenies from jumping off the ledge.

It’s workable. Need a bit of help and timing luck, but love to see that high in Canada and snow all the way down to the Carolinas

Can’t say I’m mad about seeing a suppressed storm 7 days out. As you said, maximum impact would be advisory level at best if the stars aligned, but shit.. even a 1-3 / 2-4 event would get this subforum rockin .

Exactly! Sure… we have seen *some* December snow over the past decade+ (not much in the grand scheme of things ) but we’ve also been dealing with the combination of a -PDO cycle and a niña / neutral ENSO state for the better part of the last 7+ years. The years we got a niño? We saw an absolutely epic storm in 16 and we all know what happened in 09-10 and 14-15. People are acting like we’ve had a string of winters with favorable ENSO / H5 and we’ve struck out. We haven’t had any of those as of late. And I’m not talking about temporary 1-2 week periods in the middle of a shit longpattern / niña where things “used to be workable sometimes”. The fact that we didn’t see snow in the middle of a shit sandwich isn’t surprising or earthshattering. We got unlucky… it happens. And yes, some extra warmth probably didn’t help our cause. I will not simply ignore the base state / PAC problem we’ve had the past 7 years and say well, guess we’re fucked forever since it hasn’t snowed before January 1st when we are finally back in a more favorable base state. It’s undeniable that these marginal setups early on in the season have become harder to cash in on due the giant elephant in the room.. but it’s absolute horseshit that we can’t snow or that we can’t see winters with AN snowfall anymore. Perhaps it does take longer for Maritime PAC puke to get routed out these days and it’s not as easy for us to go from 50 to 33 and snow, but that doesn’t mean we are done for entirely. It can be true that we see fewer marginal snowstorms and epic winters going forward, but also true that we can still manage them with a few extra factors working in our favor. There is so much speculation going on in these threads, it’s astonishing. I know it’s really hard not to be impatient with how miserable it’s been the past 7 years.. I am just as antsy for snow as the next snow weenie… but folks really need to get it together. Crying about it never snowing again one minute and then jumping for joy at digital blue on a 384 hour OP run of the GFS the next is no way to live. Perhaps some folks need to step back from the models for a week or two and come back when they’re ready to be levelheaded about it. Historically speaking, our best climo for snow is January 15th to march 2nd or so. Most Niños also align with this timeframe. Let’s all chill out and see how the chips end up falling. Freaking out for no reason does absolutely nothing except keep awesome posters and Mets away from our sub. It certainly doesn’t make it snow.

MLK to V-Day epic heater coming!

So were the weeklies from early to mid November you keep referencing when stating the pattern change never came on the 28th. Plain and simple: Ensembles should be used to track large scale synoptic changes at h5 in the medium+ range, and then we shift to OPs in the short and mid range to nail down specifics on storm chances. Op runs at 300+ hours = Useless. For thermal profiles, track, etc. We’ll get to where we need to be eventually. Just hope it’s not TOO late into January. We could go on absolute heater from MLK to Valentine’s Day and beyond, but I’d prefer not to have to bank on that.

Even more so for temps Ji. The OP GFS significantly busted high on my temps leading up to Christmas Called for mid 50s and my area was in the 42-45 range most days.

So, according to Ji, we’ve never had a decent to good winter without it snowing prior to January 5th? Interesting.

Generally speaking, it’s nice to see multiple members with flush hits and even a member or two hitting south of here. Lots of time left to reel this in.

Truly dumbfounded by a lot of the things I read on here. Makes me appreciate folks like yourself even more. Keep doing you man. Love the positivity you have and sticking to pure analysis (minus the emotions many others inject into their “forecasts”. Some folks either a) live in the wrong CWA and/or need a new hobby if their expectations are wall to wall winter in the Mid-Atlantic. It’d be one thing if we lived in New Hampshire… but Maryland Delaware and Virginia?! Come on. If “epic” winters were commonplace, they wouldn’t be epic. It’s becoming increasingly intolerable to scroll through these threads, so I just wanna shout you out for being one of the more consistent and level headed posters in here.

I feel like mid January thru February is always prime climo for our area.

This storm fortunately doesn’t haunt me like it does most folks around these parts. I lived in New York at the time, right under that 24+ blob in the Lower Hudson valley. One of the coolest storms I’ve ever experienced. .

Half the winter gone? What the actual fack are you debs smoking on? Please move your emotions to the panic room thread. This shit, along with weather53s constant need to bash everyone’s analysis while not having any science backed predictions / analysis of their owns is making this thread miserable to read through. How many times do you guys need to be told the same thing before understanding how a pattern change works? It’s like beating a dead horse. THERE WAS NEVER a time when we thought we’d be knee deep in a snowy / cold pattern by the end of December. The weeklies from back in early November don’t count. We’ve been looking at the 1/2 and beyond timeframe for WEEKS now. Get it together guys. The incessant need to deb because you guys are snow jaded is annoying as shit.

Right on. I envision each passing wave acting as a bootleg 50/50 for the following wave in that it would slow things down upstream just enough to allow things to potentially come together 3-4 days later. Going to be a very interesting next 5-7+ days of model runs.

The chances should to be plentiful over the next several weeks. Thank you niño! Said this the other day, but IMO, the most likely way to maximize snowfall potential from these 3 setups is if storm #1 (4-5th) ends up being the “setup storm” for the trailing 1 or 2 shortwaves. Historically it would be the least impactful, coming at the beginning of train tracks pattern with a marginal (but workable) airmass, but could also prove to be the most important wave, as it would lay the groundwork for a better h5 look once the 7th rolls around ie: ushering in legitimate cold air, laying down some snowpack to our north, and by potentially slowing down the flow upstream a bit, allowing storm #2 to potentially slow down and go boom. All speculation of course and I’m just thinking out loud here, but if we could manage to get even a little bit of snow from wave 1 and then cash in on at least one of the following two, that’d be a great way to kick off the new year. It’d certainly help get weenies off the proverbial ledge.

4 times in 54 years and folks are saying “iDK mAn… ItLL nEvER sN0w aGaIn cUz iT hAZnT sn0wed bY JaN 2nD” It can still get quite cold at our latitude, we can still get snow, and we can still see heater winters. Calm the fuck down yall. Our day will come.

There are certainly worse positions to be in. Maybe it doesn’t pan out ultimately, but I’d almost rather things be where they are now. Models showing us being fringed with a low tracking to the south with a workable airmass in place… than have models show a flush hit over a week out.

EPS members for between now and the 10th. Take exact totals with a grain of salt, but I don’t understand the “models are now pushing things back to February” talk. It’s just not true. Plenty of members showing snow chances in the coming 2 weeks. We’ll revisit this if the possibility breaks down, but I don’t see the need for the premature debbing. .

I don’t see the fact that I have seen only 3” of snow on December 26th as an indication that we won’t reach climo by end of march. Even if we have seen a good amount of precip (thank you niño / STJ) We have been here many times before. Two things can be true at once. It can be harder to snow in marginal setups early on in winter, but also still snow a lot if we get a few flush hits. Average annual snowfall isn’t all that high in our general area to begin with. People forget that climo for Baltimore and the surrounding area is like 20” (+ or minus a bit depending on your exact location) That’s really only one big and one or two moderate snowfalls. That’s it. We’re 5 days into actual winter. We rarely get snow before December 15th, especially as of late. It rains in December in the mid Atlantic. That’s nothing new. I grew up in the Hudson valley in NY, which averages 2X more snow than my area in northern MD. Saw plenty of December snowfalls growing up, but also saw plenty of shutout Decembers too. Backloaded niño winters are quite common, and the fact that we sometimes get one snowfall in December doesn’t mean the rest of the season is done for. My area saw 3” a few weeks ago. 4” in PSUs backyard. If I see 3” in December and then 20-30” between January - march, that’s a successful winter as far as climo is concerned. If 09-10 is what people are measuring this up to, that’s a foolish things to do. I don’t see what you’re seeing - that we won’t see a workable pattern until February. Models have had a pretty decent signal for January 6-8th period for some days now. That hasn’t really changed. I understand people’s pessimism and impatience, but I’m not seeing any signs that we’re now suddenly delayed until February. We can revisit this possibility if models truly do back away over the coming days (for Jan 2-8th) and weeks (for the rest of January into feb)

Oy gavault, as my grandmother used to say. Some people in here just repeat the same shit over and over again, despite being 100% incorrect in what they’re saying. That fact that some think models got this timeframe incorrect is mindblowing. CHECK 10-15 days ago on the EPS and GEFS. Compare it to right now. Pretty much 100% spot on. Who cares that the weeklies from November were 6-7 days off on the start of the pattern change? That doesn’t mean they weren’t right or that the “can is being kicked”. This window (2nd-8th) has looked like the first serviceable window for quite some time now if you’re looking for a legitimate snow threat outside of the western highlands. The 29th idea has been DOA for a solid week plus. Those OP runs were rushing the progression of the pattern. Nothings changed. Most niño winters, including snowmaggedon in 2010, were backloaded. Nothings really changed. People are just impatient. Rightfully so, but let’s stop conflating the accuracy / consistency of the models with people’s inability to remain levelheaded about the weather.

No one thought this would be a 09-10 winter. Literally no one.

Ehh, not entirely sure that it’d be a snowstorm in other years. Hard to tell. Perhaps some snow from a late changeover as the low cranks up and passes us by with minor accumulation, but all snow? Idk. Maybe but hard to tell. It’s hard to analyze in a vacuum. Sure, we’ve overcome warm temps the day prior to then see snow, but we are looking at a setup where 850s are above 0 all the way up to Bangor ME. The flow ahead of the system isn’t helpful at all. Other instances where we’ve overcome usually have better surface temps to our NW to tap into. Could be as simple as the complete lack of snow cover to the north of here. Great Lakes, Canada, etc. Once the winds flip NW, there’s no cold or even marginal cold to get the job done. As cape said, where’s the cold coming from, even as winds become favorable and it bombs out. That could be the base state angle you were mentioning. Less snow early in the season for places north of here could mean marginal setups at the front end of a pattern change (and in early winter) are less likely to work out. The difference a degree or two makes is quite big unfortunately. What used to be 33-34f and snow with mid levels at 0C is now 34-35 and rain with mid levels at 1-2C with this type of airmass.

53 said I had errant beliefs [emoji23] but I can totally understand the mixup

With the impending pattern change still on track, I’d be OK with settling for a snow thump to rain/dry slot setup around the 4th if it meant setting the stage for a legit storm around the 8-9th. Drag the boundary south, inject in some fresh cold air, and we see a low track up from the Gulf coast. Hints of high pressure being present in eastern Canada as well. Let’s get it done! A few members of the 18z GEFS actually gave us significant snow from the initial wave, but there’s really not much support for that outcome *at this time*