jayyy

Imagine 5.8” in Baltimore city as depicted here? That’d be wild. This board would implode. 10:1 ain’t happening though. Most likely outcome: Trace to 1” for the immediate metro burbs 1-2” my area over to PSU and out west to Clskins (3” jackpot in there somewhere if things turn out for the better - likely somewhere along highway 15 in elevated areas) 2-3” for the higher elevations out west (4” jack if everything aligns right) Anything more would be a goddamn weather coup. I’ll say it again… just give me some nice scenery with fatty flakes falling for a few hours and I’d be happy. This looked like a deluge of rain and nothing more just a few days ago. It’s been nice to see something trend our way for a change, even if the outcome isn’t all that impressive

Was trying to good juju it into existence! Pretty confident we can get an inch or so up here. It doesn’t even need to stick honestly.. just give me a few hours of fatties flying and I’m content. .

I haven’t checked verification scores either tbh, but it certainly feels like the GFS has been pretty money over the past year or so.

This actually makes more sense vs. what the mesos are showing. Yes, CAPEs area is further east, but they’ll also see more significant precip from the coastal low. That secondary pocket of 2-3” east of the bay would make sense in this scenario. Later flip, but more intense precip. Edit — ratios won’t be 10:1 but rates will play a huge factor.

And let’s face it… it IS the best model these days post upgrade. .

There was a storm last year where it was being very stubborn about giving us a solid hit until the night before.. even though all other guidance had shifted away from that possibility. .

Agreed. Thats what I meant about using it to see whether or not it’s holding the same general evolution in the short range. For me, it’s more about the minute details. I don’t think it does as well as some meso models when it comes to pinpointing bands, but it is definitely still a good sign when the euro holds strong. .

I like purple blobs over my house.

I’ll take my 1-2” of paste after crashing temps and run with it. Anything more would be an absolute treat. Man, it’s really nice to track something for a change. Even if it’s just a small appetizer.

Getting a wee bit close for the Euro, IMO. Not a huge fan of using it inside of 48 hours. Mainly just like to see if its general evolution is holding serve. Nice to see the gfs and NAM continue the sharper trend with passing runs. Give me 2” of paste after a 30 degree temp drop and I’d be happier than a pig in shit. If the storm wants to 3K NAM my backyard, by all means.. but my expectations are low for this one. Hoping I’m far enough north for the temps and east for the qpf. Whichever area strikes that balance will see a mini jack.

I have a very hard time believing what the kuchera / 10:1 is spitting out (shows 7+” IMBY within the span of 3 hours LOL)… BUT… if it hypothetically snowed as hard as the 3K NAM depicts, temps being at 32-34 would be irrelevant. Those types of rates would overcome near freezing temps (32-34) Would it melt quickly? Yes. Would I give a shit? Absolutely not.

^^ this @yoda Temps crash quickly while there are some epic returns overhead. 2-3+” per hour verbatim. LOL at that depiction, but that’s how you get that 4-8” swath. .

Verbatim, those places are just far enough east to see heavy qpf linger as cold air has already worked its way into the area. The likelihood of that happening is quite low, but man.. if nearby suburbs could somehow pull that off, that’d be epic.

Exactly. Why are some folks pretending that places like buffalo didn’t see a 6 foot snowfall last December? Or that Caribou Maine didn’t just have a winter storm warning like 3 days ago? [emoji1787] It still snows in early December in colder / northern areas. Patterns mean everything, as you said. Every year isn’t going to be the same. As it turns out, it can rain in Canada during winter months. Crazy concept, I know. Let’s be real honest for a moment. We have been pretty spoiled for the better part of the past 20-30 years (minus the past dreadful 7 and a few other random downer years) We got pretty damn lucky over that 20-30 year span where we saw at least 1 big storm most years. Some years (01-02, 10-11, 14-15) were epic with multiple big storms, while other years were average to just above average. This isn’t the first time the eastern half of North America has been in a prolonged snow drought, and it certainly won’t be the last. YES, this is the least snowy 7 yr period in our history and we can debate all day as to why that’s happening, but it doesn’t mean we are fucked forever. Folks are obsessing way too much about things that aren’t relevant. Not everything is correlated. A December 16th nor’easter dumping rain on Maine doesn’t mean we’re screwed. Yes, it’s becoming harder to snow in marginal setups, especially early on in the season, but that doesn’t mean we’ll never see another blockbuster winter again. Maybe it’s harder to snow in early December, but juicier storms with more qpf in January - February could easily make up for that. Let’s take this winter a week at a time and not get too far ahead of ourselves. We are in a MUCH better position going into this winter than we have been in several years. Let’s save the worrying for when it’s actually warranted.

There’s no precip falling in Pittsburgh at the time though. We don’t need deep arctic air. We need cold enough air (32-34) with precip falling. Not saying the 3k will play out as shown, but IF it did.. it can certainly snow here. Dynamic cooling does wonders. .

Was just about to mention this storm. Grew up in the Hudson Valley in NY. I remember this storm vividly. We got SHELLACKED with heavy snow after seeing a decent amount of rain earlier in the day. One of the rare times cold air caught up very quickly, allowing an additional 1” of QPF to fall as snow. Incredible storm. We also had a similar rain to snow type event on Christmas or Christmas Eve in the early 2000s. Wave formed along a cold front. Temps dropped 25+ degrees within hours and woke up to nearly a foot of snow OTG. Man, the good ole days. 1996-2010 was an absolutely incredible era for snow up that way. .

Why would someone want to do that when they can just take every possible opportunity to be a deb and attempt to fulfill their no snow prophecy? Kidding, of course. There is a TON of great knowledge shared on here by folks like CAPE, PSU, etc.. I know I’ve personally learned so much just by shutting up and consuming as much info as possible. .

Correct. It used to be that you could confidently bet that the GFS was too far SE with the boundary and the resulting storms that rode along it. You could account for a 100+ mile shift NW from what the GFS showed beyond day 4, especially when the EC CMC and NAM aligned on a further NW solution, and take it to the bank. Inside the day 3-4 window you knew that the GFS was going to pull that sucker NW. No two ways about it. Recent Gfs upgrades have been legit. A lot less long range fantasy snow, and a much more realistic progression at h5. I’d rather it that way. Getting your hopes up because the GFS showed a blizzard while other guidance had slop / rain rarely worked out in the weenies favor. The euro seems to have lost some its shine over the past several years. It tends to be too quick bringing cold air into the CWA, phasing features, etc. The pattern looks so close to being ripe around Christmas on today’s runs. But as PSU said, that may be a tad early for a biggie to hit. With that being said… we could still sneak in snow with some luck and good timing. Tend to believe it’d be more of a 2-4/3-6” type event early on the in pattern change progression .

Flakes flying again this morning. Sure, it’s not accumulating, but flakes in the air two days in a row!? Let’s go. My snow tv dendrite count may have already exceeded last year [emoji23] .

Nice to see some juice finally showing up on models .

Flakes be flyin’! Nice to see some snow falling for a change. .

Most of the overnight runs were fairly ugly / dry / warm for the next 2 weeks. Things can and will of course change a bunch of times over the next several days, but it’s looking increasingly likely that we’ll have to wait a few more weeks for a winter pattern to establish itself. No need to panic over it, as this is typical in a niño, but I was definitely hoping to sneak a threat in before the inevitable mid December niño warm spell. Once we get the - NAO / -AO in place, it’s just a matter of time. Still very optimistic about late December / early January and beyond. On the bright side, it appears that we won’t go full torch this time around.

Seeing how Baltimore just broke the all time record for consecutive days without at least 1” of snow, I think we’d all welcome seeing some snow fall from the sky.

44 & heavy rain

We were never forecasted to get sustained cold in early December though. The 6th-10th window has always been a “thread the needle” situation, as NWS and many on here have alluded to. Sustained cold is not forecasted to come until potentially late month, thanks to a -AO and reshuffling of the PAC via MJO moving into phases 7-8. Wouldn’t be overly concerned if the clipper and the subsequent wave around the 9th don’t pan out. The period around the 9th does seem interesting though, as today’s GFS alluded to. Still a bit too far out to get excited over a single OP run, but the potential is certainly there with a 1033 high to our north. As CAPE has alluded to many times, the environment seems ripe for a OV primary transferring to a coastal low scenario. Today’s 6z GFS gave us mod to heavy WAA snow from a LP tracking into the OV.