jayyy

We were looking at all rain and temps in the 50s 3 days before the first snowfall of the season. Ended up with 3” here. Not counting out the 29th quite yet. Still a ways to go. I’d take another small event early on in the new pattern if we can get one before mecs/hecs hunting season.

Mid 40s for highs today and currently sitting at 34 degrees. Enjoying the “torch”

Hot DAMN the GEFS looked good earlier this evening. You almost have to double and triple take looking at these 500mb / H5 outputs out of utter disbelief that a) they look as good as they do and b. they’re actually improving incrementally as time goes on. Still some time for things to change of course, but it’s definitely encouraging that we’re only about 7 days away from the start of the pattern change. Let’s keep it going!

Those are 500mb heights. .

My point exactly. The window for a biggie doesn’t open for another 10+ days. Seeing fantasy land OP runs show digital blue certainly doesn’t “mean everything”. In fact, it kinda means nothing. Models are going to show a wide envelope of outcomes at this range. OP GFS showed a MECS last night, and lost it today. It’ll probably show back up tomorrow at 6z. It’s nothing more than noise at this range. No need to freak out over long range OP runs. One thing is for sure… we have a ton of agreement on models regarding the longwave pattern shift coming in a little less than 2 weeks, and it looks like it could be the best 5H pattern we’ve had in quite some time. Some folks need to chilllll. This is a marathon, not a sprint.

Like this?? Or do you need to see it on every single OP run at the 15 day range just to appease your worried mind? Come on Ji. You’ve come so far. Reel it back in.

Stop looking at long range snowfall means. Jesus.

The infamous bob chill train pattern. Cold pressing up top with compressed heights with a train of shortwaves riding to our south. Little room for mid levels to get torched and the best chance of seeing area wide snow without a major screw zone

When bob gets excited about the impending longwave pattern, you know shit is getting real. My dude doesn’t come back for fantasy looks. .

Only 330 to go.. [emoji12] Obviously this will change 3949583929 times between now and then and we can’t take this with anything more than a micron of salt - being a long range OP run - but generally speaking, it’s nice to see fantasy storms lining up with bullish ensemble forecasts for a change. There’s actual support at h5 for these looks, instead of hopelessly praying that these D15 looks will somehow defy a shitty pattern. Also nice to see models continue to track storms up the coast. Just a matter of time before we cash in. My best general guess? In the 12/28-12/31 timeframe we see an appetizer storm which will likely dump most of its snow well inland. However, *some* frozen is possible closer to the coastal plain. This storm drags the boundary south, setting the stage for something significant in the 1/1-1/7 timeframe. Some LR ensembles have hinted at a quasi 50/50 setting up shop in this timeframe as high pressure begins to build in eastern Canada It’s game time folks! We’re roughly 5-7 days away from having legitimate threats to track. Hope to see models continue to hone in on the -EPO -NAO +PNA idea currently being floated on some ensembles. Doesn’t get much better than having an active southern jet as cold air finally gets unlocked and transported our direction. Having the necessary mechanisms in place to keep that cold air in place? The proverbial dagger for debs. Let’s do this.

Pics or it didn’t happen

My friend in Kentucky saw accumulating snow today… that can’t be a bad sign [emoji41] 26 degrees out here in UB

As we all know, Niño winters tend to be backloaded historically, so the idea of more persistent blocking showing up from mid/late January through February makes sense. If we are able to cash in on a respectable storm or two (3-6 / 4-8 type) from Dec 28 - January 14th, we should be setup nicely to end the season at or above normal as far as snowfall is concerned. Imagine we’ll see a week or two where the pattern reloads in mid January before the grand finale during prime climo (late Jan thru feb) Let’s get ‘er done! General thought looking at today’s models remains the same. Models are showing a crap load shortwaves flying around both the NS / SS, while the NA and PAC are reshuffling. The next 10-14 days look extremely chaotic, which means we could see a discreet threat show up in the short to medium range. Could also mean we get nada. Trend will hopefully be our friend. No use in getting too bogged down on specifics from range. The exact surface depiction will change 4x a day with that many waves flying around.

The December / Christmas torch theory has been long debunked. It’s already 12/19. Most models indicate that a reshuffle of the pattern begins in the coming 8-10ish days. We’ve known that December won’t be a torch for weeks now. A few days in the upper 40s to 50s? Sure. But no 60-80 degree days like recent years past. The current 10 day forecast calls for only 1 day above 50 for a high IMBY with nighttime temps below freezing 7 out of 10 of those days. Much different feel this year. Especially after getting a few inches of snow unexpectedly last week.

Woke up to a passing snow shower - 32F out Generally speaking, nice to see some wintry weather for a change, even in the midst of a bad pattern. Couldn’t buy a single snowflake last year. Received 3” last week and have seen 2 other passing snow showers in the span of 10ish days. Getting much better vibes so far this year.

Sweeeeeet

50/50 showing up, 1032 high in Canada… could get interesting, especially for places inland.

Got a solid point there.

Why are you talking about politics and making things personal by name calling [emoji23] And what does carrying torches have to do with the fact that I’m pointing out why you’re wrong - backed by a comment made by a very knowledgeable member just a few hours ago. The biggest storms we’ve seen over the past 10-20 years have ALL been sniffed out on ensembles well before day 5. That’s just a fact. It’s inherently clear that you can’t handle having a debate, and you’re making a fool of yourself. Please move your emotions and bullshit posts to another thread like the panic room.

My beliefs are not errant whatsoever. There are METS in here who post ensembles well outside 5 days. PSU listed a plethora of examples of storms that were sniffed out at day 10 by analyzing the impending pattern on ensembles. The only one with “errant beliefs” here is you.

Fixed it for you. Ensembles are very useful up to the 10-14 day window, especially when analyzing trends and the big picture pattern. Ensembles are models as well. Posting 300 hour surface maps / thermals? Useless. The distinction matters, IMO. It’s encouraging to see the positive trends continue at h5 - especially in the NAO domain and seeing the PAC Jet relax. I honestly think we have a better shot around the 28th-31st than many think.

I’d take that type of setup in early winter all day long. Don’t want a wrapped up storm along the coast flooding the coastal plain with SE winds as it approaches. A 3-6” areawide type storm would be a perfect appetizer and would boost morale around here

Gauge showing over 1.2” over the past 6 hours alone. Easily over 2” for the event. .

“Very warm” is kind of a disingenuous way to characterize December thus far. Sure, it hasn’t been cold (rarely is in December nowadays - especially before winter has officially begun) but we also haven’t torched like we saw back in 2015 and in other strong niño years. It’s primarily been in the 40s here and I’ve seen 3” of snow so far this season. Certainly nothing to write home about, but it’s been better than what many, including myself, were expecting just 3-4 weeks ago. Highly doubt January ends at +4. I don’t think it’s front to end cold - nature of the niño - but I am going to go out on a limb here and say that January ends up being average to -1

What did I say just a day or two ago!? For late December, models originally had the MJO heading into phase 4 before dying out. Then they showed it going into phase 8-1. Then they showed the MJO getting to phase 7 before going null and now they are showing a more bullish phase 8-1 depiction again. You honestly can’t trust these long range MJO forecasts many have come to obsess over. It’s best to focus on the big picture and the main drivers behind a particular pattern. Any given model run’s 10-14+ day output (temps, storm track / precip type, positioning / strength of PNA , etc) is less important than the upper air pattern upstream that led to it. There are so many different moving pieces that will contribute to the advertised pattern change coming after Christmas. Expecting models to hammer down those exact details 10-14+ days out is a fools errand. As we all know, something that seems relatively small in the moment can lead to a domino effect downstream - vastly changing the surface outcome (IE: the difference between a long range snowstorm signal and a big ‘ole swing and a miss) Best thing we can do is look at the big picture and to analyze trends from run to run - which is the PSU approach. Now that we’re roughly 7 days away from Christmas, it is nice to actually see ensembles trending in our direction for a change, instead of seeing things get can-kicked back to D15 & beyond; something we’ve grown accustomed to over the past several years. Here’s to the positive momentum continuing this week! We could certainly use a win around here. IMO, we are honing in on a workable h5 setup to start off the new year. One that *could* lead to an areawide 3-6”/4-8” type event if we can avoid getting a super wound up coastal hugger. The southern jet is active and juiced up, this much we know. Now let’s get some seasonally cold air to our north and we’ll be in business.