Yikes. That’s rough for sure. Used to happen a ton where I lived up in the Hudson Valley as well. Particularly during nor’easters and dynamic NS driven storms. Middletown to Goshen always seemed to be in the sweet spot but there’d be areas JUST north of us who’d see nearly half our totals because they’d get stuck in sinking air for long durations. This hobby is not for the faint hearted lol
Looking at orientation / trajectory of precip, I’d say look out Frederick Carroll NW HoCo/MoCo by 1230-1am. Those dark greens near Winchester are headed right this way.
Usually a bit drier than higher res models so I’d agree this looks pretty good. Bump precip by 0.1 and it’s a solid 4-6” storm for many. Also, ratios will best 10:1 at the peak from your area to mine to PSUs