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jayyy

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Everything posted by jayyy

  1. jayyy
    Flakes are mixing in, but we’re primarily sleet. At least 3” of sleet so far and counting
  2. jayyy
    Perspective I guess but this is easily the most snow/sleet Ellicott city’s gotten in years… you have to be at what? 9”? I know you’re big dog hunting like the rest of us, but I wouldn’t call this wasted QPF
  3. jayyy
    ALEET ALEET
  4. jayyy
    Stay safe folks east of the bay… gonna get a decent dump of ZR this evening it appears Looking like we’ll stay sleet up this way - west of Westminster. About to Jeb walk down to flood zone for a nice brewski
  5. jayyy
    Yeah, definitely don’t. I’m getting observation texts from my friends I grew up with… getting absolutely smoked in the Hudson valley. Easily hitting 16-18 up there
  6. jayyy
    May have a foot combined at the end of this at this rate. Unreal. Mangled flakes mixing back in during heavy returns but man, this sleet is wild.
  7. jayyy
    Not as good as a foot+, but I’ll take 8+ of snow/sleet that’ll stick around for 1-2 weeks. Haven’t measured but easily over 8 currently with crushing sleet falling
  8. jayyy
    A flip back would be epic
  9. jayyy
    Intensity is definitely picking up 14 degrees
  10. jayyy
    Today’s storm was supposed to drop 30” in NC 5-6 days ago so I’m not sweating it
  11. jayyy
    It pulls its data from the NBW model. The national blend of weenies
  12. jayyy
    This cliff hanger is 45 mins and counting…
  13. jayyy
    11” would be chefs kiss
  14. jayyy
    Sooooo fine and powdery. Accumulating with ease though. Nice returns nearby! Go time 15 degrees
  15. jayyy
    That went over your head for sure
  16. jayyy
    Too flat out west? Trough doesn’t go negative in time and slides offshore. Man, that’s a monster. Would much rather models showing something progressive this far out
  17. jayyy
    Thinking that’s a solid 8-10” on the gfs and Ukie for the metros
  18. jayyy
    Trough amplified too far west. Hard to believe this isn’t all snow but that’s what happens when the 850 and SFC low track to our west. Even the coldest of air masses gets scoured right out. If the storm takes that track, it will 150% flip. Only chance models are wrong is if they are all missing an earlier / further south coastal handoff. Doubtful
  19. jayyy
    Man, just give me that 16-18z changeover the gfs has
  20. jayyy
    Orange County NY
  21. jayyy
    All snow 12-18” with 24” lollipops - the WSW for where I grew up. Still have time to make the drive up. Off until Wednesday. It’s very tempting. But if I can manage a foot here, I’d def rather just watch it from MBY
  22. jayyy
    Respectable. The MoCo-HoCo area to me is the biggest ? mark going into this thing. Transition zone of >50% snow will be right there. Could see 6, could see 10-12. A few hours will make all the difference
  23. jayyy
    I’m going with 10”. If I hit that in combined snow and sleet up this way…. I’m happy. Lotta tracking to settle for 6”. I’ll be frustrated for sure if I end up with 6 and my parents in NY end up with 18
  24. jayyy
    Not sure the exact time of day matters. It’s all about when the 850 low and primary start encroaching to our west. If it starts 3 hours earlier and flips over 3 hours earlier, doesnt really do us any good .
  25. jayyy
    Wouldn’t it be something if models were getting that energy handoff wrong. They all, to a degree, maintain that weakening primary into the OHV and torch our mid levels to varying degrees. But man, imagine we saw that coastal pop early and south..
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