jayyy

@SnowenOutThere curious to hear your take as to what’s causing the HRRR beef up the past 3-4 runs

HRRR RAP NAM and Canadian Mesos all on board in the very short term. Temps a tad lower than expected. All systems go!

The retiring NAM says all systems go lol. 3k and 12k lining up within 12 hours can’t hurt though

.5” QPF would be lit

Canadian is definitely the best region wide outcome. Getting close to nowcast time

Canadian is definitely the best region wide outcome

Sweet deal

What’s the latest NBM blend looking like @CAPE

High res > Ukie for this setup for sure

Jackpot over my house on that one

Baltimore looking pretty damn good for 3+

Ji can already see the back edge approaching

An event juicing up as we approach game time? Interesting feeling

Just going to stay in Ellicott city at my brothers since I work until late Saturday and early on sunday. Less travel, more snow. Win win

Let’s reel her in

Think they updated the name to the RavensRule block

Sticking with the NBM on this one. Expectations should be 1-3 for many east of 15 with perhaps a 4” lolli where things line up just right - looking to likely be NE of Baltimore, my guess is somewhere near elk neck state park along the bay

Similar to the Euro, just wetter.

Doesn’t get much better than the 0z euro / cmc combo for the I-95 metro corridor

That’s what RavensRule said

1-3” possibility Sunday followed by a drop into the teens that night sounds great.

12z gfs… 65-70 degrees Christmas Eve 18z gfs… 6-12+ storm for the MA and NE on Christmas Eve Safe to say models have minimal clue how our pattern will unfold in 2 weeks

Looks workable. Would rather there be cold air looming around nearby with room for the southern stream to juice up than be in a suppressive / fast NS dominated pattern all winter. When cold patterns / blocking relax is when we tend to get our biggies

We live in the mid Atlantic. We all know we won’t see wall to wall cold from November onward. But there has also been a very clear pattern over the past few months of models vastly overdoing long range warmups. Modeled warm ups end up being either muted or are not occurring. We will 100% see periods of warmer weather in a niña, but I’m gonna take the under on it being 70+ on Christmas. This winter is different than the previous few in that there’s a ton of cold air nearby in Canada with a healthy snowpack to our north. Even the more relaxed zonal flow some models are hinting at in a few weeks shouldn’t be torchy. May end up just having normal temps. 70+? Call me skeptical. There will likely be a reload of the pattern around Christmas. It will probably hit 50+ some days. But idk about 70+ or this winter being over after December like some are suggesting

A lot of moving parts to try to resolve in a given window. Makes sense I suppose