jayyy

While the exact output on the clown maps should be taken with the smallest grain of salt at this range (Sorry Ji), it is pretty impressive how similar they looked on the 00z GFS CMC EC. Nearly identical with a few minor tweaks.

IF we were to fail, I don’t believe we’d fail due to suppression. It’s more likely that we’d fail due to models overdoing confluence ahead of the system. Let’s not go down that path unless necessary please.

Let’s reel ‘er in .

It really wouldn’t be all that shocking if this ends up being more impactful in the DC - Philly corridor than it is in the NYC to BOS corridor. Nothing is off the table a week out, but the longwave pattern we’re entering has resulted in a mid Atlantic bullseye numerous times over the years. Going to be a wild next 4 days of tracking. We’ll know MUCH more after that Wednesday wave passes by. Would be badass to finally see a DC to Boston snowstorm, but I’m not sure this is the one to do. One of those areas will end up much happier than the other come next weekend.

Tick.. tick.. BOOM We get cold enough between 850s & the surface… which allows us to survive the SW’s approach. The rest is history. Anyone with more knowledge than myself able to explain the mechanism that leads to the better cold push / confluence? The high up north is stronger yes, but it also seems to be anchored in place much better. Is this a result of the 50/50? Thanks in advance. PS - When was the last time we had the GFS CMC and Euro all show warning level snowfall for majority of the CWA? Fuggin awesome.

Huge shifts in our direction today, no doubt about it. This is why you never give up too early and why you don’t live and die by digital blue on long range OP runs. If you look back 14 or so days, ensembles did a fantastic job sniffing out the upper air pattern change Not sure how this storm will ultimately play, but damn does it feel good to track something tangible again and to not be in a shitty niña / PAC pattern while doing so.

Tick… tick…

Maybe I’m off-base here, but don’t certain patterns / ENSO states play into the strengths / weaknesses of each model? Believe I read somewhere a while back that the EC has a noticeably higher verification score in Niños than Niñas. Back when we seemed to get niños more often, I feel like the EC was pretty unstoppable in the 10-14 day range. I know some exclusively blame upgrades or what have you, but perhaps that’s not the entire story? Anyway.. going to be an awesome next week of tracking this with you crazy weenies. Big question mark here is that first shortwave… what does it do and how does it impact our bigger threat? The strength / location of that 50/50 is going to be crucial in keeping our High in a favorable spot leading in. Should know a whole lot more by 00z wed

We’re 7 days out. How often do all members show hits a week out? Come on man. That was also an ensemble mean, not a clown map.

It’s a marathon, my friend. Going to be a LONG week tracking these models 4x a day in here, that’s for sure. Here’s the initial reminder for folks (Ji and some others specifically) - please do not live and die by each run each day... especially by those damn clown maps. You are going to drive yourselves crazy and there is zero shot models keep us happy for the next 28 consecutive suites. It is completely normal for models to shift around a bit from suite to suite. 11” IMBY tonight on the GFS may be 3-4” tomorrow at 12z and then bounce back again. So long as the general evolution / h5 look remains locked in, we have a legit shot at our first areawide snowfall in 2 years (possibly a significant snowfall) Don’t fret over 50-75 mile shifts from run to run and the resulting snow map- keep an eye on the bigger picture.

Too old for that shit 7 days out. I’ll read the meltdown over it not showing as much snow as the GFS & CMC in the morning [emoji2957]

GFS / GEM both showing significant snows for 90+% of us?! Forgot what that felt like. Too bad this storm is 7 days out. Expectations will be mighty high from here on out for the usual suspects. .

Woof. Obviously ignoring the snow maps, that was a nice run there.

6+ days out. Still time for things to change. Perhaps it changes for the worse, but we’re not out of the game yet, especially N&W areas.

Keep talking naughty.

Now that we have a tangible threat to track, perhaps we should put the threat(s) inside 7 days in a separate thread? Might make it a bit easier to sift through these discussions. Keep D7-15+ ensemble analysis in here and keep discussion of the 4-7th timeframe separate? PS - fuck your superstitions. Mother Nature doesn’t care that we made a thread. [emoji23] .

Doesn’t it have a better verification score than the GFS though? Or am I tripping

2 long range runs of the GEFS - which were certainly pretty ugly vs. prior runs - sent this sub into a frenzy of sorts. To say we need some snow would be an understatement. Pretty sure many in here would cry happy tears to just wake up to an inch of snow at this point. Glad to see the GEFS remembered we’re in a niño this morning. Poor CAPE has had to keep these weenies from jumping off the ledge.

It’s workable. Need a bit of help and timing luck, but love to see that high in Canada and snow all the way down to the Carolinas

Can’t say I’m mad about seeing a suppressed storm 7 days out. As you said, maximum impact would be advisory level at best if the stars aligned, but shit.. even a 1-3 / 2-4 event would get this subforum rockin .

Exactly! Sure… we have seen *some* December snow over the past decade+ (not much in the grand scheme of things ) but we’ve also been dealing with the combination of a -PDO cycle and a niña / neutral ENSO state for the better part of the last 7+ years. The years we got a niño? We saw an absolutely epic storm in 16 and we all know what happened in 09-10 and 14-15. People are acting like we’ve had a string of winters with favorable ENSO / H5 and we’ve struck out. We haven’t had any of those as of late. And I’m not talking about temporary 1-2 week periods in the middle of a shit longpattern / niña where things “used to be workable sometimes”. The fact that we didn’t see snow in the middle of a shit sandwich isn’t surprising or earthshattering. We got unlucky… it happens. And yes, some extra warmth probably didn’t help our cause. I will not simply ignore the base state / PAC problem we’ve had the past 7 years and say well, guess we’re fucked forever since it hasn’t snowed before January 1st when we are finally back in a more favorable base state. It’s undeniable that these marginal setups early on in the season have become harder to cash in on due the giant elephant in the room.. but it’s absolute horseshit that we can’t snow or that we can’t see winters with AN snowfall anymore. Perhaps it does take longer for Maritime PAC puke to get routed out these days and it’s not as easy for us to go from 50 to 33 and snow, but that doesn’t mean we are done for entirely. It can be true that we see fewer marginal snowstorms and epic winters going forward, but also true that we can still manage them with a few extra factors working in our favor. There is so much speculation going on in these threads, it’s astonishing. I know it’s really hard not to be impatient with how miserable it’s been the past 7 years.. I am just as antsy for snow as the next snow weenie… but folks really need to get it together. Crying about it never snowing again one minute and then jumping for joy at digital blue on a 384 hour OP run of the GFS the next is no way to live. Perhaps some folks need to step back from the models for a week or two and come back when they’re ready to be levelheaded about it. Historically speaking, our best climo for snow is January 15th to march 2nd or so. Most Niños also align with this timeframe. Let’s all chill out and see how the chips end up falling. Freaking out for no reason does absolutely nothing except keep awesome posters and Mets away from our sub. It certainly doesn’t make it snow.

MLK to V-Day epic heater coming!

So were the weeklies from early to mid November you keep referencing when stating the pattern change never came on the 28th. Plain and simple: Ensembles should be used to track large scale synoptic changes at h5 in the medium+ range, and then we shift to OPs in the short and mid range to nail down specifics on storm chances. Op runs at 300+ hours = Useless. For thermal profiles, track, etc. We’ll get to where we need to be eventually. Just hope it’s not TOO late into January. We could go on absolute heater from MLK to Valentine’s Day and beyond, but I’d prefer not to have to bank on that.

Even more so for temps Ji. The OP GFS significantly busted high on my temps leading up to Christmas Called for mid 50s and my area was in the 42-45 range most days.

So, according to Ji, we’ve never had a decent to good winter without it snowing prior to January 5th? Interesting.