jayyy

Def was not expecting that output on the HH GFS. That banding setup is insane. End up with 7-10” imby despite the evolution looking meh at first. The GEFS is also interesting to say the least. Essentially removes the OV lows and focuses everything along the coast. Less precip but less mixing concerns up this way. Certainly curious to see what 0z looks like.

Agreed. Hoping to see the “bleeding” stop, if you can call it that. I still think this is still typical noise at range but who knows for sure. If 18z and 00z look the same or slightly improved I’d feel better about that. .

I don’t think it’s ultimately going to be that close of a call near the MD PA border once the dust settles - especially for places near 81 and 15. We’ve seen this song and dance before. Still thinking it’s 90%+ snow for those areas as things stand right now. If the low tracks as depicted by the GEFS, I feel pretty confident in seeing at least a low level warning level snowfall for my area, PSUs area and clskins area. The area that’s most unknown is 95 and the immediate DC / BAL metro. Gotta think Baltimore will fair better than DC in this setup. So long as the primary doesn’t trend stronger / hold on longer, I feel pretty confident in the above scenario. Going to be very interesting once we get into meso / short term model range (nest, NAM, etc) Globals tend to paint a broader brush as far as thermals are concerned and overlook some of the dynamics driving where the R/S line ultimately sets up. Think one thing is pretty certain here… the gradient is going to be awfully sharp between areas that stay primarily snow just west of the fall line versus areas just east of it. 6-8” versus 1-3” within the span of 20 or so miles is looking pretty likely here. Question remains: where? .

95 is not out of the game yet. Better to be in Carroll county than Baltimore or DC for this one though it seems (hello, climo) Need the coastal low to develop and deepen quicker to flip wind direction and mitigate onshore flow for the 95 corridor / metros to be able to maximize. Going to be a close call for those areas for sure.

Yep. Precisely what I’m saying. There’s no reason to be worried about some wobbles at this range. It’s extremely rare to see models lock in totals 120+ hours out and hold it all the way up to an event. Normal noise at this range. .

Models improve their accuracy as we get closer to an event. More current information = more accurate data. Not sure what’s “debunked” about that. My comment had zero to do with 0z/12z vs 6z/18z. It’s just a fact that models have more current information as time passes, which narrows the outcome envelope. Not worrying about noise from run to run unless we see a sustained trend begin.

Let’s see what 12z and beyond have to say. Closer we get, the better sampling we’ll have. We may also see some changes in guidance come Wednesday night when storm 1 departs the area. Not going to get too worried 100+ hours out. .

Looks like a 20 mile shift N for the 0c line. Let’s just hope it’s a wobble and not the start of a trend, especially for I-95 on east. Feel pretty good about this setup for our neck of the woods PSU

NAM at 84 hours isn’t even NAM distance lol

Ninja’d by Terp. No high = LP railroads through the coastline. We’ll see what the euro has to say later on. Not too worried at the moment. Especially up my way. If the Euro / GFS hold serve, that’s all I need to remain confident going into the 4 day range.

The goal posts have tightened substantially from just a day or two ago, but there’s still going to be waffling on exact jackpot zones for qpf, the exact location of the R/S line, timing of the transfer to the coast, etc. It’s all noise. 50 miles here, 25 miles there. We’ve seen this song and dance before. Models trend north as we hit day 4-5 and then they settle back south leading up to game time as models get better sampling on the confluence leading in. Sure, we’d love for models to show 12+ in our backyards for 5 straight days, but we all know that rarely happens. Looking very solid for many of us right now. .

That’s over a foot in Ellicott city. Not a bad run AT ALL .

The trend has undeniably been colder - better confluence, a stronger / better positioned high, and an earlier transfer to the coast. Trends have NOT been warmer the past 72 hours. Quite the opposite in fact. .

When does the GFS bring in precip? Did it continue the trend of earlier onset or is still looking like a Sunday affair? Gotta think late Saturday night would be ideal vs later into Sunday morning - afternoon

The new Ji… Rates overcome marginal surface temps as mid levels stay cold enough. Has happened many times before. I-95 gets a mauling of precip, which mitigates that issue. As depicted, that’s heavy snow at 33 degrees, not rain. It’s not a lock, but if the storm evolves as the GFS depicts, DC to Baltimore would see warning level snowfall with more snow to the WNW.

I’m relaxed Ji… haha. I’ve probably been one of the most optimistic folks in here regarding this threat. Just wish we were closer than 5 days is all. .

18z GFS is a mauling for the DC - BAL corridor. NYC gets in on the fun as well. Great suite.

WOOF. El Niño for the win. Hate that this storm is still 5+ days out though.

Nice to see some positivity up in this place for a change! Let’s keep it rolling with HH GOOFUS

Huh? El Niño is the mechanism that’s finally allowing the PAC to become more favorable. The PAC has been the proverbial kiss of death for the entire east coast the past few years. Not sure I agree with this. The EPO part, sure, it won’t remain negative… but disagree about the pac jet. The niño helps prevent the pac jet from remaining too extended for too long. The entrenched niño longwave pattern is what’s allowing our pattern to become more favorable - especially in the mid Atlantic.

You know the drill though… those areas JUST west of the zero line will get hammered with QPF. Could very well have a situation where eastern Howard county sees 3-6” and western Howard county sees 6-12”. Going to be a close one for many areas within 5 or so miles of 95.

Don’t think there was ever really a doubt NW would win with a marginal airmass in place and a low tracking just offshore. Highly unlikely the suppressed looks with jackpots in SVA pan out given the setup.

This storm would indeed be like Jesus Christ if it pans out. Bringing weenies the salvation we all desperately need. But let’s not get TOO hyped over clown maps at day 7. One day at a time.

EPS - hr 156 Cha-ching

The GFS was also slightly more amped / NW with the initial SW versus 18z… the big difference was that redevelopment got shunted further SE due to more confluence ahead of the system. Hence the congrats to Baltimore and the surrounding area .