jayyy

I was mostly being sarcastic there. It definitely makes logical sense that having better / more recent data is helpful in nailing down the details, especially when you’re living on the margins like we are. Hopefully when all the players are on the “field” we see models tick back in our direction a bit (00z tonight will be very telling IMO) The differences in evolution between my area seeing 1-2” and 6-8” are very minute, so anything’s really possible at this point. .

Huh? Clippers still exist? [emoji41] .

Thought the better sampling aspect was a debunked theory… guess not. .

Talk about a nailbiter. The smallest adjustments in LP track, LP strength, HP position / strength (confluence) drastically change our areas outcome from run to run. Models did a great job overall with the synoptic setup at range, but they are struggling with the minute details. Would be badass to score a coup within 72 hours but we may be a bit too early in this pattern. If we had this back and forth going on a week later, I’d def feel better about our chances. If 00z looks colder again tonight, this board is going to have some severe whiplash

Is this going to be another day (like yesterday) where 6z & 12z look blah and things trend better at 18z and 00z? Or is this the start of a sustained trend for the worse? 18z and especially 00z will be very telling. If they continue the negative trend, then many of us are in pretty rough shape - even up my way. If models bounce back in our direction, we’re still in the game. Guess the only “positive” thing here is that these differences are *relatively* small from run to run. We have been very much on the margins all along, so as PSU said, being a couple of degrees warmer on certain runs is the difference maker. Even the runs that looked good (0z gfs cmc Ukie and icon from last night) it was a pretty close call with a very sharp gradient. Showed 6-10” near Baltimore but just a couple inches along the bay. That’s a razor thin margin. The good news is that mountains don’t need to be moved to get us back in the game. We don’t need huge shifts. If models are underestimating cold or the strength of the low by just a bit, we are well within the margin to bounce back. The bad news is that we are starting to run out of time here. Can’t remember the last time models had a storm, lost it, and got it back within 72-84hrs.

That’s a sweet tool for sure. Also, it’s in meters incase anyone overlooked that part. My old house in west EC was apparently around 320 feet elevation (higher than I thought tbh). My house in union bridge is at 469ft. Not too shabby. Man. This is gonna be a nailbiter. .

00z EPS MSLP - 2 mb weaker vs 12z HP - 2mb stronger vs 12z Confluence - better Track - a smidge further offshore .

Ukie trend.. 0z vs 12Z All major guidance shifted in our direction tonight. Hope to keep it rolling come 6z .

GDPS trend… 12z vz 00z .

GFS “wiggle” aka big shift - 12z vs 0z Gotta imagine the Boston sub wasn’t thrilled about that run. Went from a foot+ to 1-3” around the Boston metro over 2 runs.

Euro trend.. .

The trend on tonight’s runs is undeniable across all guidance. As PSU said, euro is a tad warmer than other guidance and therefore we don’t quite max out, but it’s closer.

Bit more than a wiggle on the gfs tonight I’d say. .

GFS/CMC/Ukie/Icon and Euro blend? lol .

Warm and wet sadly. Being a Stubborn mofo Gfs cmc icon Ukie all looked better / colder. Can never toss the euro, but it’s currently on an island as far as temps are concerned .

Going to be interesting to see what the higher res models have to say about thermals once we get into their range .

DarkSky via the Apple Weather App is all in [emoji12]

Out to 54. Confluence a smidge better, SW a smidge weaker in the 4 corners region vs. 00z gfs

I will take any move toward a colder / snowier solution as a win tonight, especially with how the GFS CMC and Ukie trended. Looking for: 1. confluence and the HP look better on this run vs 6-18z as far as strength and positioning is concerned 2. Focus continues to move away from the OV and toward a consolidated SS storm that tracks SE of here We’re at day 4.5 or so… this should historically be in the OP euros wheelhouse. .

Feeling a lot better about the prediction I made earlier today fa sho Let’s get it done! Sub 60 hours from watches being hoisted! .

Shit. Apologies, the posts pile up quickly in here when things look good. Didn’t see it above. .

Ukie says game on too

Whoever gets lucky and ends up being just west of the R/S line but stays primarily snow is going to get dumped on with the dynamics of this storm. 10-18” may be a tad high but still What a shift in just one suite. Still lots of time left though. Let’s lock it in. Sticking to my guns, especially for my area over to PSUland. Low level warning snowfall looking very likely with the potential for more.

GFS and CMC hop back on board? Mmmmkay .

I’d lock in that 6-8” all damn day. Honestly, a nice 4-6” storm would be a great way to kick off our new pattern. Certainly prefer the 12+ it showed 1-2 days ago but I won’t be picky given the past several years. .