jayyy

Steady light snow in Columbia - sticking immediately. I’m going with 4-8” area wide and calling it a day. Time to enjoy.

Holy crap guys. Did you read the models over the past week? Or just look at QPF output? there are two portions of this storm my man. InItial waa snows and then from the main low. There is supposed to be a gap and lull in precip until this thing gets going and consolidates please stop with the jumping over the edge posts 1 hour into the event.

Warnings up for Howard Montgomery Baltimore and points WSW for 4-8”.

I think central MD is in a good spot. South enough for high qpf totals, north enough for good ratios. Should help Howard and Montgomery county get to DC’s totals.

Dark sky app clearly uses the NAM output lmao. Shows 7-11+ for my current location at work in Columbia. Nuts! still think we see 4-8” area wide. 4” north of Baltimore, 6” between Baltimore and dc and 8+ Possible dc and south.

6z Euro looks good. QPF bump HRRR /SREF are juicy as well ICON GFS Euro all agree on approaching warning snowfall, if not exceeding it. Alright, time for a 12z NAM’ing!

12z nam incoming in the next half hour.... I expect a doozy. If Trends continue, they need to extend warnings up to the Baltimore parallel at least, if not further north

Yup. Been saying this for days. Watch NW trend at last minute. Models always overdo confluence and push storms flatter and weaker than they should be. Models have been hinting at the confluence weakening and there being ample gulf transport for days now. Why I said never to abandon ship 3.5 days out with the jackpot just to our south. It’s a foolish move and the last 24 hours proves why. Wait and see time... but the SREF and HRRR are hefty if anybody looks @ short term models

And I think it may be better than progged by models. Per usual, models didn’t properly pick up precip intensity, lift, or dendrite growth/ratios. dont see anything that would hinder that happening here. And I don’t remember models having snow that far north either.

PS... always good to watch reports out west.. reports of over a foot in missouri. The storm is packing a huge punch and is expansive.

That being said... if 12z nam shows another shellacking with support from current OBS, they need to move warnings north. 25 degrees here in Howard county, humidity 66%, and dew is 16... still have room for temps to fall as column cools down from precip. Going to be an amazing scene out there tonight. Dark sky has 4-8” in my local forecast.

ICON continues wet runs and north trend. NAM RGEM and GEFS support it. Euro as well. Were locked in guys!

Mountains in SW VA, S WV, E TN, Western NC will definitely see 18”. Maybe 2 feet. That precip shield is huge. The models definitely got one thing wrong... QPF totals and expansive nature of the shield. It may be my weenie eyes... but the precip isn’t necessarily moving W to E. Looks to still be making a NE trek. Would love to see even an hour or two of flakes! It certainly feels like a storm is brewing outside.

Still could be a small hit for DC. Models are just models, sir. They are wrong and wrong often. 150 miles too far SE wrong? Not typically but it can certainly happen. Especially with a southern slider in east December. We needed this storm to either speed up or slow down a little bit to allow things to align better. Timing is literally perfect for screwing us over. Come on Canadian vort!!!! Move the **** back north.

SREF paints 2-4” through dc proper, especially points south.

Woah... 6z nam went pretty far north! DC is pretty damn close to seeing something appreciable. Come on baby... just a few more bumps north and central md is in on the action too Ugh. This is going to be so depressing to watch glide south of us. It’ll even appear as if it’s coming straight toward us and then will hit a giant wall of dry air. 6z nam eases up on the vort so the storm is able to track to a higher latitude. Hopefully 00z nam tonight shows another big shift agree with the observation that models have been weakening this storm for a few runs now. The northern feature never catches up and things remain flat at h5.

Could this be a Nowcast event!? Could the CMC be right? Probably not.... but it’s possible. DC still has a shot at 2-4 if things go right and we see a broader / slightly north precipitation shield. Not discounting anything quite yet. It’s been trending ever so slightly north. We are definitely not seeing warning shows, but I won’t discount advisory snowfall until the storm comes and goes. Wouldn’t be the first or last time models were wrong.

Check HIS RES models for trends at this juncture to sniff out northern trends. Gfs won’t budge until it’s within 24. If NAM isn’t going north, were in trouble.

7-9” currently. Could bust and go high though - charottesville, not centerville

Anyone have any snow rituals? Inside out pajamas? Eating meatballs or a particular food? I know some of you are superstitious! PS - Appreciate the up to the minute 18z suite updates ladies and gents. Would be nice to see a larger shift in the look at h5 / 500 mb, but the trend is there. I simply do not buy how overwhelming the confluence is being modeled by the globals right now. This air mass should be on its way out come Monday, not in. 00z tonight should be interesting to say the least. Hope to see excitement on here and not people jumping off the ledge over missing out on snowfall in the first 1/3 of December.

Wishcasting? I’m a meteorologist. I don’t wish cast or base my forecasts or predictions on outcomes I’d “like to see” I, unlike most, look at the upper air pattern, h5, 500 mb to get an idea on where this storm could go. Stop looking at surface outputs and clown maps. If you’re already counting us out, you have zero understanding of meteorology and are doing the opposite of “wishcasting”.

NAM and JMA move north. TREND BABY

Come on baby... that vort needs to move east from western Canada so that we can get some decent data from it. We are SO close. Just need some sharper digging on the SW flank, and a less pronounced vort come Sunday.

Confluence is retreating / a tad weaker so far in the 12z suite on the GFS NAM and ICON. (12 and 0z are the only that actually count at this point as they receive much more data than off hour runs) Solid start to the suite. Long way to go. Keep in mind, there will be a ton of players on the field for this storm and majority of them are still offshore, including the main system in question. If this trend continues at 0z, we are still in the game. Time is, however, getting short.

Still hope for the 95 corridor (Dc - BAL) I would really like to see those 2 pieces of energy in Canada retreat north or delay on 0z tonight or we may be hoping for flurries on Monday. Suppresion in early DECEMBER? Son of a ....