jayyy

1048 HP per 12z initializations. Roar. Feeling good about 2-3” before the changeover N&W of the big cities. Especially up here. Still think we get dryslotted before we see much rain. Seen this song and dance before.

hopefully 0z tonight is a bit friendlier to us and trends back.

Starting to look like warning level snowfall is possible for me PSUhoffman and my fellow northern tier friends I think it’s safe to say an ALL snow event is not happening, however we could still very easily see the low track in a manner where we see a solid 4-6” thump before we go to ice and are dryslotted. In fact, analogs for similar storms and setups at h5 point to the fact that that outcome is quite possible. We need the storm to dig and strengthen far enough south so its able to tap into an ample moisture source, but far enough north / weak enough to not pump a ton of warm air into our neck of the woods. A tight rope to walk, but we are seeing the overall trends we want to be seeing at this point to achieve just that Many are focusing on the stubborn CAD in place from a 1040 H to our north and how cold it'll be leading up. Rightfully so. However, remember that it is not surface temps that will determine when we change over to slop or rain. It can be 33 and heavily snowing, and it can be 19 out with sleet or freezing rain. What we need to worry about is the surge of warm air between the 700-900 levels. Going to be blunt here. Think there’s going to be a huge gradient in snowfall between DC and Baltimore. Points SE of DC may only see snow TV, while points NW of BAL see upwards of 6”. We will have a solid idea of where this boundary will setup by 00z Thursday. Until then, models will continue to waffle. Important that we stick to the trends and don’t jump off the ledge from run to run. Dissecting surface temp / QPF total specifics 3+’days out is a waste of time and energy. We’ll get into that in the short term. Let’s just keep rooting for the snowier trend to continue for now!

GFS / Euro blend isn’t too shabby. Thankfully we have 4 days left of tracking

Whatcha thinking bob? Think we can eek out a few solid inches in the Carrol - west HoCo - MoCo snowbelt Friday night before the transition? Trend has definitely been solid today. Hoping we have enough time for things to continue to trend in our direction. Have noticed the look at h5 and the SLP position have begun to trend in our direction on the euro/gfs/gefs edit - Newest euro definitely trended stronger, more north and therefor pumps the ridge more. Not a good look.

Ah yes, threads jinx storms, and snow can’t stick when it’s “too warm the day before”. How could we forget these ancient winter storm proverbs!

Hard to see through all of the fog on the models, but SLP positioning seems to be slowly improving and many models are trending toward keeping that 1030-1040 high in place longer. We definitely won’t see all snow, but don’t discount 2” (closer to 95) to 4” (usual cold spots near Westminster etc) of snow nw of the big cities before the transition Going to be harder to erode that airmass than models are depicting. Sadly we have no blocking in place to help us out, but we should see a solid few hours of flakes for sure.

I lived 30 miles NW of NYC Along the Hudson River in ’06. 2/9/06 was an UNREAL storm. 20+‘degree temp drop and almost a foot of snow in mere hours. Insane.

Try another 2-3 days. The GFS will show 4 very different solutions tomorrow from run to run. As it almost always does when the energy in question is nowhere near the CONUS for good model sampling. patience, young jedis!

If you guys are basing your long term forecasts on 168+ hour GFS runs, you’re setting yourself up for failure. Relax guys. All it takes is one or two Features being out of place for that storm be a lakes cutter on models. Models have zero clue as to what’s going on Meteo knowledge and our climo say what will happen next weekend is Snow (how much still a huge question) to ice to rain with the usual colder spots up here near Westminster and points north holding onto a sloppy mix for a while longer than areas near 95, which will serve as the catalyst to a true wintry pattern. relax kids. Stop the cancel winter posts. Remember, with global warming, our winter is really February to April anyway LOL

Dark Sky shows 4-8” for next Saturday, let’s just go with it and see what happens... what could go wrong LMAO

That little extra elevation helped ya squeeze out an extra .75 or so! I averaged about 4” here in Union bridge. Had a few 4.5 measurements but discounted them against the other 7/8 consistent measurements.

Solid haul. Looks like usual colder spots in N MD into S PA jackpotted I’ll take my 4 and run with it in this pattern.

4” total 12 miles WNW of Westminster my brother who lives on 108 in Columbia said about 2-2.5” not too shabby Considering half of the board was claiming it was too warm yesterday for snow to stick (debunked every single time) Elevation per usual played a role in how quickly the snow stuck. Didn’t take very long up here in Union bridge.. versus along the 95 corridor. glad we could sneak one out in a pretty horrendous pattern.

Pouring snow out there. Sticking to everything except traveled roads. Beautiful scene

Flakes flying! Here we go... just give me an inch or two out here in the colder climo and I’ll be happy

Happens all the time as somebody who grew up in the city. During transitions, it can be snowing at the top level of a tall building and raining at The surface. Only lasts a minute or two

Just got notice my kids are coming home early. (hoCo schools) NWS calling for 2-4” for the colder NW zones. Thinking 2” here should be about accurate based on OBS to our Sw

1.6” before changeover to a snow/slop mix Not too shabby.

Bob, your weather knowledge is quite expansive. I enjoy your daily Analysis very much trend has been our friend the past 24 hours. Let’s see how we look in another 24.

Wahoo... jackpotted with a solid 0.85”

Gorgeous scene out there! Win in my book for the second week of December.

My cousin lives just east of the bay bridge and said it’s snowing gangbusters in that SE band. Some models may Have been onto something by calling 2 areas of enhanced totals.. one to the ENE of 95 and one to the NW.

What a beautiful scene outside in Union bridge. 33 and moderate snow. Cars And sidewalks beginning to get topped

Snow in union bridge!