jayyy

? Not sure what’s funny. Every storm that doesn’t turn into a MECS or HECS is thrashed by half of the forum. 6” in Baltimore city on 12/16 would be a great start to the winter. Expectations are always far too high. People shouldn’t have a “foot of snow or bust” mentality. It’s frankly exhausting and annoying. Even in the snowier sections of the forum. We live in Maryland. Not New York or Maine. we will likely more than double the entire snowfall total of last year before winter even begins. Take the W.

Interested to see what the GFS/ICON/EPS/RGEM do at 12z. More concerned with the trend than the verbatim solution.

This storm has had S/C PA NMD NNJ SENY and southern New England jackpot written all over it since day 1. Classic Miller A setup in the early days of winter. Someone in the corridor between Harrisburg and Philly is going to see 30” out of this. Bet on that. If it were January with that 1040 HP up north.... we’d all be in the game. Think some are trying to overplay the hand we’ve been dealt here. Know your climo! Especially on December 16th. that being said... this isn’t over. At all. There is absolutely zero reason to believe this storm is a done deal entirely. Yes. Baltimore isn’t getting a foot. But 6” is still very much possible. Doesn’t take much of a shift to get I-95 in on warning level snows.

I was just about to say this. I lived in Middletown PA from 2013-2015 right outside York & Harrisburg. They were pretty good winters for that area and there were definitely storms where that area saw 3-6” as Maryland saw little to anything.... but it’s not worth the move IMO. It’s a really boring and dull area to live. Sure, it snows more in York.... but not enough to move my life back there. It was miserably boring compared to Maryland.

100%. And we may not know until 00z tomorrow - or perhaps until the storm arrives. There is almost zero agreement among models at h5 and the upper levels and were within 48 hours. There’s a lot of noise for these models to read through, including the energy coming through the area right now dumping cold rain on us. GFS showed nearly a foot of snow in Baltimore at 6z, nearly 10” at DCA while other models only show 2-5”. Going to be insanely close for I-95. I don’t think models have much of a grasp on what’s going on here. Somewhere between the GFS/euro seems most likely IMO.

Going to be really interesting to see where that CCB sets up. It could help some places just west of 95 “catch up” a bit with their snowfall totals on the backside. I see it setting up in a spot near the R/S line. As a member of the “northern crew”, am rooting for that to occur along 95 for you folks as we seem pretty set up this way

This storm is going to be insanely close on the margins. Could have a situation where folks around owings mills (N of 70 / W of 695) see 8” while folks in middle river / Essex see 2”. Difference in 50 miles in track could mean the world to folks along 95

Ah. Should have known something was updated / different when the euro has 6z runs. Been “outta the game” so to speak. As always, thank you for sharing your wisdom my friend.

... we ALL know this can be a cutthroat hobby and business. Let’s try not to get personal over snow in our backyards, shall we? We’re looking at a 3-6+ snowfall area wide outside of the immediate coast before winter has officially begun on the calendar - with more storms and an active winter pattern to track behind it. Cheer up buttercups!

Forgive me if I’m wrong here, but aren’t we out of euro’s “good range” at this point? 48 hours or less usually isn’t it’s sweet spot. GFS/RGEM and other medium range are probably better to lean on at this juncture, no? (Not the NAM - seems to have lost touch with reality) Or has that changed?

RGEM & GFS look MUCH better this morning for Baltimore metro. Noticeable tick SE with snowfall amounts. looking like a solid lock 6-12+ up here in Carroll county. Man... I’d take that 6z GFS for the entire forum!!

Me likey!!!

LOL, my parents 30 miles Nw Of NYC are going to get mauled by this. Good grief. im just hoping for 6” in December and I’ll be happy

Temp of 39 here in Union Bridge WWA up for 1-3” in the lowlands, 2-5” in higher elevations

Here we go! Rooting for the SE / weaker / colder trend for those of you closer to the coast and I-95! Is an area wide banger in mid December likely? No. But we could sure as heck all use it! That baby ticked ever so slightly SE overnight into the morning. Still plenty of time for improvement!

It depends on low placement / track. Typically speaking... a strong SLP doesn’t bode as well for the coast as it does for the interior. Warm air intrusion can be a big concern. As is my concern with this storm along and east of 95. Stronger typically means a closer track to the coast. There’s likely going to be a pretty big snow gradient unless this thing begins trending SE a bit. Snow to Rain E of BAL / DC... a few sloppy inches downtown...3-6” just outside the beltway, and 6-12+“ north of 70 and west of 270. Classic December setup. We get that 1040 HP to anchor in the right location however, and coasties get their boom. Currently, the QPF jackpot is in northern MD / southern PA (1.5 - 2” of qpf looking at deterministic models) - along with the best lift. Need a decent jog SE for I-95 to get in on warning level snowfall unless you live in NJ and points N.

Depends on the track of the low and placement of the high..

Looks like the Canadian honestly.

COULD be a storm where reisterstown sees a foot and heavy snow while Brooklyn and Annapolis see a sloppy 6” if this thing nudges west over the next 48 hours. With that being said... h5 and CAD have been trending really nicely since 12z and I expect 00z euro to follow suit. The ideal storm for the setup we’re currently in falls right between the 00z GFS and the 00z CMC. I don’t want to get my hopes up too high just to get burned but DAMN, does it feel good to be tracking a major winter storm in mid December again.

Unreal cutoff south of Baltimore showing up on almost every model. Difference of a foot over 50 miles. That has to be watched closely. NYC the Lower Hudson valley E PA and NNJ are going to get walloped by this. H5 cut off by AC - someone’s going to hit 30” up there. Feeling pretty confident that the area between myself, PSU, and clredskin is looking pretty darn good for at least 6” at this point.

Great 00z. Whew! Canadian agrees.

I like the call. 6-8” is a realistic call at this point. My folks who live 40 miles NW of nyc are in for 12+ easily - I’m a bit jealous.

Helluva week to make a return! Looking decent for 6” or more area wide!

Driving west on I 70 and there’s flakes Mixing with the rain in higher elevations west of Frederick. About 60/40 I’d say. Gosh darn it I’ll take mixed precipitation in this awful pattern lol

23 degrees here in Union bridge. That juicy band will be all snow for north DC Suburbs and Baltimore proper. Wouldn’t be surprised to see an inch or inch and a half up this way. 850 Temps will spike not long after noon.