jayyy

Just trying to stay positive for my fellow weenies closer to the coast. Although, I’m starting to feel a little uneasy about a sleet / FRZ RN fest up here as well if the bleeding doesn’t stop soon

Euro went East or west?

We’re not going to know where this is headed until the storm is here. Models have virtually zero agreement on how to handle the high to the NE, the primary in the Ohio valley, and in turn, the SLP / 850 low track. Just the slightest over amplification or under amplification of the primary in the OV throws the entire storm into limbo. Yes, this often doesn’t end well... but the overwhelming majority of ensembles look much better than the OP with the location of the SLP. The mouth of the bay versus 50 miles offshore makes or breaks the entire storm for the eastern half of the cwa

nyc isn’t getting screwed... again.

Hoping to see the models catch up today, not the other way around! Whew! Big runs coming up today.

It’s plausible if you believe the 12k nam’s thermals... tough model to hug however. Gotta see something big change today for me to believe this map comes to fruition.

8-12 for Baltimore in NWS’s newest map - doesn’t line up with its own WSW. Seems silly

Don’t worry, 6z will do it’s usual QPF dump and put out 30”clown maps Night sir.

100% Always bet on WAA snows from a Miller A over wraparound snows. If the CAD is even slightly underdone (very likely), we may see an area wide 3-6” before we even have to worry about the mix line. I think Baltimore sees 4-8” despite mixing issues at the height because of the initial dump.... unless the overall trend continues through tomorrow

I’ll donate $100 to DT if places like sykesville only see an inch. he has 1” inch and significant ice and 12-16” of snow awfully close together in MD / PA. ZERO chance this pans out.

Any shot that high stays anchored in bit longer (Better CAD than depicted) and pushes this baby south/southeast 30-40-50 miles? Or is everything too progressive at 500 mb for that to be a possibility?

100%. The OP run is definitely out of whack. I’d push the SLP at least 20-25 miles east

Who’s counting though, am I right?

Very interested to see how things shape up around rt 108/70. Could have eastern ellicott city seeing 4-7”, as western ellicott city / Marriottsville sees 7-10” with more as you head out west / north. Very sharp cutoff coming indeed. Would love to see 18z start a slight tick SE for folks closer to 95 to get in on the action. I’d gladly sacrifice a few inches up this way for my friends right down by da beach (bay)

Still has about a quarter inch of QPF left in the tank as well when that occurs. It’s never great to depend on back end snowfall though, especially with a storm that is riding through a fairly progressive 500 mb pattern. It’s 2020 though, anything can happen in this crazy year!

I second and third this motion. Chubbys is life.

Definitely a solid spot. Our son goes to mt saint marys and lives off campus in Thurmont. Looks like a foot is almost a sure bet up there. Looking similar here in Union bridge.

12z euro using kuchera is about a foot in Baltimore proper. Drops off steeply south of there. Woof. Gonna be close.

Believe it was around Christmas 2005. A cold driving rain turned over to 6+“ of heavy snow in a 8-10 hour window. Not sure I’ve seen a storm where 850s crashed as quickly as with that storm. A classic no doubt!

Hoping for a good 50-75 mile jog east for my friends down in Baltimore and dc! Rooting for you guys!

Right? 15”? Sign me up lol

Thank you. I’m all for moving along.

Why are you so offended by the notion that this storm isn’t our jackpot? a) northern areas will win out b) still possible for Baltimore to see 6” if things align. It’s not very complicated. And your need to attack my intelligence is both pathetic and unwarranted on a weather forum. Relax chief. Focus on your wailing ravens and less on other people’s intelligence.

That’s awesome! She’s going to get walloped then? No?

It’s not my job to coddle the feelings of people who live in warmer parts of the sub forum out of snowpression. I’m being realistic here. 90+% of the forum will see advisory to warning level snowfall before winter even begins. That’s a good start, no matter the outcome in your own backyard. This storm was never going to be a jackpot for our area compared to NY NJ PA. If one gets 3-6” in Baltimore city out of this, that’s a win - no matter the “maximum potential outcome if everything aligned correctly”. We barely saw 3” total all of last winter. Perspective man.