jayyy

Seriously? 6-10” areawide with high ratios isn’t a good run for you? Why would we want this thing to amp up and introduce possible temp issues? What you’re rooting for is going to end in a NYC and NE special, I guarantee it. Also, the OP GFS too cold /SE bias isn’t much of a thing anymore since it’s latest upgrade. It led the charge with that last storm showing it further north. From time to time it’s a bit too progressive at h5, but not like it used to be when you could pretty much guarantee the gfs would trend NW by 250+ miles around day 3-4. This storm was never going to be historic, and rooting for some jacked up wave that results from a complicated evolution rarely works out for our latitude. The first storm in a prime window rarely does. It’s the follow up wave or 2 once the colds been established and the boundarys been dragged south that typically hits big for us. Not sure why’d we’d want to complicate things further for this first storm when our airmass isn’t as established as it will be around the 20th.

We’re waiting on models to fully resolve the cutter and then the Monday night - wed AM timeframe. No shot in sam hell models have the 20th pinned down. One threat at a time ladies. I knew the gfs looked good by the sheer number of replies in this thread when I opened the app. Let’s GO

Seriously. If models were to *hypothetically* look like this the night before the storm hit (I know, it very likely won’t… but if it did) I’d prob stay at my brothers place closer to 95 to enjoy it. Would I take 5-7” of cold smoke? Hell yes. In a heartbeat. I don’t want hear squat about needing a HECS, Ji. An areawide high advisory to low end warning snowfall with temps well below freezing and high ratios (probably near 15:1 with these temps) would do wonders for this subforum’s morale. Only needing 0.5” of QPF to get half a foot would be sweet. Plus, who wouldn’t like some snowcover heading into the 19th and beyond?

Terp is right about that cutter. It’s a big storm and will impact how things look up top leading into the 16-17th event. Models are trying their best to hone in on the 500mb setup, but it’s pretty clear that theyre having trouble deciphering what’s going on given the significant run to run changes at h5 on each model. Once that cutter comes and goes, the envelope of outcomes should tighten drastically. I actually thought today’s trends at 500mb were encouraging. Surface didn’t quite get there due to timing / strength of certain features but there’s plenty of time for those pieces to come together between now and Tuesday. Snow mean on the EPS looked the best it’s looked all season earlier today. The GEPS median looks much better tonight as well. It’s doable, but we will need a little luck to get there - as always. Pretty obvious we all want to see something significant after what we’ve endured the past few years, but I’d sure as heck take a light to moderate snow event to get everyone on the board and get this late winter snow rally started. Some snow cover leading into the 19th and beyond when the longwave pattern gets tasty AF? Yes please. .

Got my beer and a joint ready to go. Mid-Atlantic country, let’s ride. .

^ boom

Maybe he’s trying reverse psychology where he doesn’t post every single snow map and it comes to fruition. Hell, weather53 just had their come to jeebus moment above regarding models showing outcome possibilities and not being a forecast in their own right. Ya never know [emoji1787] .

It’s not actually a big reset. The EPS reloads the block and the southern stream becomes active again 3-4 days after things “break down” .

Good loooord .

Lost power quite a few times this evening. Roar, says the wind. .

PSU touched upon this earlier. Cooler water temps and SSTs in feb & march help in marginal areas like ours. Deep December cold has become a lot less common and therefore it’s taking longer for ocean / lake temps to cool off. Have to imagine the Great Lakes are much warmer than usual for this time of year. Also means the LES machine is about to go ape shit when the real cold comes starting next week .

Just keep swimming…

Also think some people’s definition of what “accurate” means is severely misguided. If guidance 2-3 weeks out shows a pattern change and a potential storm or two but ends up being a few days late / early on the arrival of the cold air and 100 miles off with SLP track, that’s still astonishingly accurate from that lead. Models nailed last storm from very far out, they simply missed some of the finer details that determined exactly where sufficiently cold air (for snow) would be. Now, if we’re talking minute details (exact track, R/S line, etc) we really shouldn’t be taking any solution outside 5 days verbatim. That’s never changed. Sure, models have been upgraded and are a bit more accurate, but it’s extremely rare that any model gets all details correct outside of 3 days. The issue is we want models to give us our desired outcome, and when they don’t, they “suck” or they are misleading. They’re not misleading. We’re misleading ourselves most of the time based on our emotions regarding desired outcome.

Precip type aside… the sheer size of this storm and its widespread impacts from the gulf to the Midwest to New England is very impressive. .

Definitely concerned about flooding in my parents neck of the woods. They saw that foot of mashed potatoes you mentioned in the Hudson valley. They’re currently snowing at 30 degrees on the frontend but it’ll be 40 and pouring rain later on. Gonna be uuuugly for some areas up that way.

Meh, MJO impact is overrated. We’ve seen too many phase 8-1’s fail and phase 4-5 succeed to believe it’s somehow the end all be all for our chances to get snow. A factor? Sure. One of a many. But the MJO is always so overblown on this forum. .

I envy your positivity. Truly. .

Welcome to the Himalayas! .

Idk, maybe it’s just me but I’d almost prefer to see a SVA/NC snowstorm at this lead than a bullseye given this years trend of things coming well north once we hit day 4-5. Especially if the setup is a southern stream low tracking west to east along the boundary. I know there’s a fear of suppression given the evolution at H5, but I’d rather take the possibility that the boundary is being depicted too far south / the block / 50-50 are being depicted a tad too strong over trying to thread the needle again. Also, just a reminder for those feeling like debbing today after a disappointing outcome yesterday, that many of us live in the central DMV, where climo is roughly 20-30” per year. For the lowlands / 95 crew, that’s pretty much two solid storms or one biggie with a medium , etc. I know it feels like Deja vu and things are being punted, but backloaded winters (late Jan thru early march) are commonplace around these parts in a niño. Yes, we sometimes score an early season storm in niño heads, but we’ve also been shutout going into mid January before as well and ended up with a solid winter. Just need to be a BIT more patient. It sucks, I get it, but our time will come. Going to be a rollercoaster to get there it appears, but we will see snow, and likely multiple snows in a relatively short span. Big thanks to cape psu heisy Brooklyn terp & those tracking the LR and breaking it down for us.

Saw a foot up here in Orange County NY at my parents house. 7.5 of which fell in a 3 hour span. Mashed potatoes FTW. Pretty awesome storm. .

Oh boy. Flooding is gonna be a major issue in the northeast if those qpf amounts are anywhere near accurate. .

Awesome! Honestly, that was one of the best snows I’ve witnessed in years... and I’ve witnessed a bunch of absolute maulers in my life living in the elevations of the Hudson Valley for over 25 years, as well as our big storms from 2010 through now down in the DMV area. The combo of the rates to end that storm with the sheer size of the snowflakes, it was an amazing sight. There are a bunch of reports of upwards of 9” of snow falling in under 3 hours in some areas from NEPA into the Hudson valley toward Newburgh. Some models (GFS RGEM etc) nailed the existence of that deathband, but were off with its location. My soul needed that. 11.8” of snow is the official report from Middletown. Reports of 14+” to my NE near Poughkeepsie, which was ground zero for that band. .

Well worth the drive up here. Over 4” so far. Over 1” per hour rates currently. Should end up around 9” at this rate. The holiday period is REALLY rough in my line of work. Amazing what a good snow can do for your mental wellbeing. Hope to bring winter back home with me [emoji1696]

But they were doo(dy) .

Finally, a legit jebwalk. Time to unplug and just enjoy the snow for a while. 1.5” and moderate snow up at my parents house. 28 degrees winds from the ENE at 10 mph Temp DOWN 3 degrees since precip began. Latest Upton NWS update calling for 8-10” .