jayyy
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Everything posted by jayyy
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Not a bad idea. I think 2-5” is a good call for downtown Baltimore. I feel good about at least 2-3” with the front end thump being depicted on mesos and Hi res - Lollipop 4”They can usually sniff out WAA thump way better than globals can. Not sold on backend snows at this juncture.
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850s 0c is literally 10 miles SE of me. Kept all snow... barely. Best place to be for QPF
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Any other storm I’d have much more confidence in the outcome this close to the storm. The forecast looks pretty locked from 15 on west. However...in the C MD, N VA and the I 95 corridor, not so much. Models still differ a great deal at both the surface and the upper levels. Going to truly be a nowcasting situation with this one.
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The HP also hasn’t retreated as much by hour 30 as was being shown at 18z
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Not sure honestly. Think it may have either a wet bias or a tendency to see sleet as snow. that being said... it could be onto something. WAA with these classic Miller A’s tend to overproduce.
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Temps appear to mainly be cooler than modeled thus far. No model had me at 22 at midnight. HP also appears to be better positioned / a weeeee bit stronger on the UKIE
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22/19 elevation: 500 ft nice to see dew points in the teens ahead of the event New WSW issued for 6-12”
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Is it normal to see so much variation among ensemble members this close to an event? I know some variation is normal but 1-2” of snow to slop versus 6+ in dc seems pretty wild this close to the event. Those 30-40 miles could mean everything for some
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Thinking the same for me here. 6-10 instead it 10-16 like I was thinking
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In New York? Where exactly? Ps - go away lol
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What is the WRF ARW2 smoking?
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Inclined to agree. Decent CAD in place with a storm tracking to the south - albeit closer to the coast than many of us east of 81 would like. Don’t see rain being a factor for points north and west of Baltimore. Sleet bomb impending.
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Woah, woah. No one’s talking about jealousy over snowstorms my friend. We aren’t children. I went to college in Buffalo NY and lived there for roughly 18 months after I graduated from UB. I grew up in the northeast, so I definitely understand big snows as well. Used to see 3-4-5” per hour lake effect thunder snow bands, on the regular... I miss it. which is why I’m so excited to finally have a shot at warning level snowfall. It’s not about comparing backyards, I assure you Just happy to track something.
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Grew up and lived in Rockland County NY (new city) for 30+ years. We had some EPIC thunder sleet during events over the years. Can still hear that pinging on my folks clunky metal 1980s AC window unit if I think about it. We used to get a lot of nor’easters where we’d see 3-6 inch snow on the front end followed by buckets of sleet and IR as the more elevated locations 20 min to my NW near bear mountain saw 2 feet.
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I did. Saying “some snow” to sleet to snow (backend snow nonetheless) sounded to me like you were talking low totals. My apologies. And yes, I’m a weenie. A weenie who’s about to experience my first legit storm up in the northern tier of MD.... and my first legit shot at a foot in some years. This weenie is going to enjoy the crap out of it.
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Can smell the sour grapes all the way from here. Next time, friend. there will be plenty east of 81 who see warning level snowfall.
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If your buildings tall enough, you may be able to catch a pellet or two before it melts from the rooftop. I kid, I kid.
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I’d go 1-30” just to be safe
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Pix or didn’t happen
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Has me concerned big time. Thankfully it’s an outlier.
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Decent shot at that happening TBH... more so for the prince Frederick area but DC may get slotted before the pivot
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We have any Cumberland / Frostburg folks in here?! Good grief. I envy you.
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Regardless of outcome, I’m just excited to see the sky puking fatties tomorrow before sunset.
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Weirder things have happened
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Be thrilled man. You deserve it. We all do. And everyone knows if they were likely the jack 12 hours before a big event, they’d be saying the same. Do you brother. This is a cut throat hobby and you are MORE than accommodating to people’s IMBY concerns / questions during the tracking process. Enjoy the storm!!
