jayyy

Woah... 6z nam went pretty far north! DC is pretty damn close to seeing something appreciable. Come on baby... just a few more bumps north and central md is in on the action too Ugh. This is going to be so depressing to watch glide south of us. It’ll even appear as if it’s coming straight toward us and then will hit a giant wall of dry air. 6z nam eases up on the vort so the storm is able to track to a higher latitude. Hopefully 00z nam tonight shows another big shift agree with the observation that models have been weakening this storm for a few runs now. The northern feature never catches up and things remain flat at h5.

Could this be a Nowcast event!? Could the CMC be right? Probably not.... but it’s possible. DC still has a shot at 2-4 if things go right and we see a broader / slightly north precipitation shield. Not discounting anything quite yet. It’s been trending ever so slightly north. We are definitely not seeing warning shows, but I won’t discount advisory snowfall until the storm comes and goes. Wouldn’t be the first or last time models were wrong.

Check HIS RES models for trends at this juncture to sniff out northern trends. Gfs won’t budge until it’s within 24. If NAM isn’t going north, were in trouble.

7-9” currently. Could bust and go high though - charottesville, not centerville

Anyone have any snow rituals? Inside out pajamas? Eating meatballs or a particular food? I know some of you are superstitious! PS - Appreciate the up to the minute 18z suite updates ladies and gents. Would be nice to see a larger shift in the look at h5 / 500 mb, but the trend is there. I simply do not buy how overwhelming the confluence is being modeled by the globals right now. This air mass should be on its way out come Monday, not in. 00z tonight should be interesting to say the least. Hope to see excitement on here and not people jumping off the ledge over missing out on snowfall in the first 1/3 of December.

Wishcasting? I’m a meteorologist. I don’t wish cast or base my forecasts or predictions on outcomes I’d “like to see” I, unlike most, look at the upper air pattern, h5, 500 mb to get an idea on where this storm could go. Stop looking at surface outputs and clown maps. If you’re already counting us out, you have zero understanding of meteorology and are doing the opposite of “wishcasting”.

NAM and JMA move north. TREND BABY

Come on baby... that vort needs to move east from western Canada so that we can get some decent data from it. We are SO close. Just need some sharper digging on the SW flank, and a less pronounced vort come Sunday.

Confluence is retreating / a tad weaker so far in the 12z suite on the GFS NAM and ICON. (12 and 0z are the only that actually count at this point as they receive much more data than off hour runs) Solid start to the suite. Long way to go. Keep in mind, there will be a ton of players on the field for this storm and majority of them are still offshore, including the main system in question. If this trend continues at 0z, we are still in the game. Time is, however, getting short.

Still hope for the 95 corridor (Dc - BAL) I would really like to see those 2 pieces of energy in Canada retreat north or delay on 0z tonight or we may be hoping for flurries on Monday. Suppresion in early DECEMBER? Son of a ....