jayyy
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Everything posted by jayyy
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You’ll be alright in Bowie, sir. Dc proper and southern MD should be okay. South of 66 could run into problem if this storm truly has trended 25+ miles north. Models showed the potential of a warm layer intrusion in the SE quadrant of the storm for days. Think many assumed it would be all snow but more coastal development can easily rush warm air on the SE flank as cold air wraps around the NW.
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Damn right.
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#deckpic
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Just about 3” and counting. Probably a good thing that LWX raised that 3-5” advisory they had up 24 hours ago LOL Radar is reloading! Should be a really fun next 8-10 hours
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NAM seems to have the best handle so far. Intrigued to see what this coastal does. It’s been hinting at a ton of interaction and deform band for 3 straight runs
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Wouldn’t discount the SREF entirely. It sucks ass... until a storm has arrived. That’s what it’s meant for. Only decent a few hours out, otherwise I wouldn’t go near it. HRRR/RAPP is the best combo If you insist on looking at the models instead of the radar and current OBS haha
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Lmao.. piling up and the heavy stuff hasn’t even come up to HoCo yet. Ratios and dendrite are solid.
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Column is great. Ratios for central md And points north will exceed 12:1 in my view. Of course better as you climb north in latitude. Ratios up by PSU Hoffman will be insane which is why he’ll still likely easily get 6+
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These flakes are wonderful. Steady light to mod snow is accumulating quite rapidly. Flakes are enormous. Snow growth upstairs is looking quite nice up here in central MD. Still think the area between Bob Chill in Rockville and BWI / Howard / AA county does superb between being far enough south for QPF and far enough north for much better snow growth than dc and points south.
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Stop trolling man. It’s a storm thread, and you’re not even close to being correct. Just stop.
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Steady light snow in Columbia - sticking immediately. I’m going with 4-8” area wide and calling it a day. Time to enjoy.
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Holy crap guys. Did you read the models over the past week? Or just look at QPF output? there are two portions of this storm my man. InItial waa snows and then from the main low. There is supposed to be a gap and lull in precip until this thing gets going and consolidates please stop with the jumping over the edge posts 1 hour into the event.
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Warnings up for Howard Montgomery Baltimore and points WSW for 4-8”.
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I think central MD is in a good spot. South enough for high qpf totals, north enough for good ratios. Should help Howard and Montgomery county get to DC’s totals.
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Dark sky app clearly uses the NAM output lmao. Shows 7-11+ for my current location at work in Columbia. Nuts! still think we see 4-8” area wide. 4” north of Baltimore, 6” between Baltimore and dc and 8+ Possible dc and south.
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6z Euro looks good. QPF bump HRRR /SREF are juicy as well ICON GFS Euro all agree on approaching warning snowfall, if not exceeding it. Alright, time for a 12z NAM’ing!
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12z nam incoming in the next half hour.... I expect a doozy. If Trends continue, they need to extend warnings up to the Baltimore parallel at least, if not further north
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Yup. Been saying this for days. Watch NW trend at last minute. Models always overdo confluence and push storms flatter and weaker than they should be. Models have been hinting at the confluence weakening and there being ample gulf transport for days now. Why I said never to abandon ship 3.5 days out with the jackpot just to our south. It’s a foolish move and the last 24 hours proves why. Wait and see time... but the SREF and HRRR are hefty if anybody looks @ short term models
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And I think it may be better than progged by models. Per usual, models didn’t properly pick up precip intensity, lift, or dendrite growth/ratios. dont see anything that would hinder that happening here. And I don’t remember models having snow that far north either.
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PS... always good to watch reports out west.. reports of over a foot in missouri. The storm is packing a huge punch and is expansive.
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That being said... if 12z nam shows another shellacking with support from current OBS, they need to move warnings north. 25 degrees here in Howard county, humidity 66%, and dew is 16... still have room for temps to fall as column cools down from precip. Going to be an amazing scene out there tonight. Dark sky has 4-8” in my local forecast.
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ICON continues wet runs and north trend. NAM RGEM and GEFS support it. Euro as well. Were locked in guys!
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Mountains in SW VA, S WV, E TN, Western NC will definitely see 18”. Maybe 2 feet. That precip shield is huge. The models definitely got one thing wrong... QPF totals and expansive nature of the shield. It may be my weenie eyes... but the precip isn’t necessarily moving W to E. Looks to still be making a NE trek. Would love to see even an hour or two of flakes! It certainly feels like a storm is brewing outside.
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Still could be a small hit for DC. Models are just models, sir. They are wrong and wrong often. 150 miles too far SE wrong? Not typically but it can certainly happen. Especially with a southern slider in east December. We needed this storm to either speed up or slow down a little bit to allow things to align better. Timing is literally perfect for screwing us over. Come on Canadian vort!!!! Move the **** back north.
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SREF paints 2-4” through dc proper, especially points south.
