1-4am is the likely timeframe if it materializes. Don’t look now, but there may be some back building commencing as we speak. ULLs gotta swing through eventually.
850 low never closed off, allowing warm air to scream north. It’s early winter, barely below freezing, with relatively warm ocean waters compared to deep winter. If we had a closed 850 low south of here, this was an easy 12+ area wide
I’m thinking a line from walkersville to thurmont and points NE have a shot - albeit small - at a few inches if the stars (column cooling & precip) align. Think the far NW crew may just be too far west with a low moving away from the area and south of 70 in Howard / Baltimore counties is probably too far south for any meaningful QPF.
backend snow rarely pans out ... BUT it definitely can from time to time. Experienced my fair share of backend thumps growing up in the near NW suburbs of NYC. Places 15-20 mins north of me in Bear mountain and points NNW would see all snow 12+“ from a nor’easter - meanwhile we’d see a few inches on the front end, go to sleet / IR at the height as the low passed by offshore, and end as snow as the low pulled away south of Long Island. Granted they are in a better location up there for this to occur, but it can definitely happen here as well.