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jayyy

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Everything posted by jayyy

  1. jayyy
    Do tell
  2. jayyy
    You know one model is gonna show something good. Gotta keep folks interested [emoji1787]
  3. jayyy
    My buddy in Schaumburg just NW of Chicago got 7” with storm one and 11.5” from storm two. Wouldn’t necessarily call that a bust. .
  4. jayyy
    You know it’s coming. Something to keep folks hanging by a thread.
  5. jayyy
    When all other guidance has abandoned us… you know what time it is…. NAMing time [emoji1787]
  6. jayyy
    Yeah, for some reason when the “sent from my phone using Tapatalk” toggle is checked, it enters a period 3 lines down. Terrible coding job by Tapatalk.
  7. jayyy
    Your mother. It’s what shows up from my sig for some reason. Eat a shlong, Yeoman.
  8. jayyy
    At this point I might as well go visit my Alma mater (university at buffalo) if I want to see some legit snow. Last week’s foot in NY helped soothed my weenie soul but I need more.
  9. jayyy
    Watch the 00z NAM show what we want [emoji1787] .
  10. jayyy
    Thread jinx is real. Prove me wrong. .
  11. jayyy
    Shit I’d take a nice advisory level event at this point. Get the ball rolling heading into peak climo and a prime pattern window .
  12. jayyy
    JV for sure, but it’s halfway decent within the 48-60 hour timeframe, which is where some of these key differences are occurring. As you said, better to have it on our side than not.
  13. jayyy
    Agreed. That being said…. For as much shit as that model gets… is a threat REALLY there without a proper NAMing? Just sayin’. We haven’t had a proper NAMing all season and I have 3” to show for it (shut it Ravensrule) .
  14. jayyy
    Next up… the WRF-GONADS .
  15. jayyy
    You must be a life coach. .
  16. jayyy
    We REALLY need some areawide snow [emoji1787] Some in here are for real traumatized by the last few years and it shows. NAM at range is just that, but it does handle the energy out west very similarly to the GFS Ukie CMC in the short term, where it at least has *some* semblance of credibility. Would love to see the euro start trending our way by 00z tomorrow once that Midwest storm has mostly cleared. This is a possible long duration event (Monday night start) but some models show a later Tuesday - Wednesday impact, so we’re still pretty far out as far as “meteorological time” is concerned. Buckle up. Going to be a “fun” next 72-96 hours of tracking.
  17. jayyy
    At least the euro only has the icon on its side currently. GFS CMC Ukie combo is nice for our area but I agree with PSU… would rather have the euro on our side than not. It’s the best model for a reason. Would like to see it make a legit move toward the other camp sooner than later. Good news is we’re still 4 days out or so .
  18. jayyy
    Or… you don’t give a crap about the difference between 1” of rain at 45 degrees or 1.5” of rain at 55 degrees when you know it won’t be snow. You just don’t notice when things change. Models showed a ton of rain over us leading into last storm and many busted low in qpf. You just didn’t care because you weren’t emotionally attached to the outcome. .
  19. jayyy
    Thank you. Best shot we’ve had so far this winter and people are already cliff jumping over model waffles 5 days out. Gfs just showed a solid event and it’s still depressing as phuck in here. .
  20. jayyy
    GGEM GFS consensus anyone? Kinda hilarious that the cities have seen no snow in 2 years and now 5”+ for Baltimore proper is a “rugpull”. We’d pretty much all be jumping for joy if that GFS run played out verbatim. A low along the coast with no precip issues? Sign me up. Come on. It’s way too early for this nonsense talk. At least save it for Sunday.
  21. jayyy
    I know suppression is more of a risk than the opposite this go around with the tpv squashing things, but if someone asked where we’d prefer things to be 5 days out… we’d say SE of us 99% of the time. Perhaps models are pressing the tpv a bit too much and we end up with an areawide 3-6” type event. I’d way rather be on the cold side of things with room for things to move N / be more amped than praying for less amped / more progressive as it rarely plays out that way. .
  22. jayyy
    00z gfs anyone? Since we’ve got one a weird tangent about next winter already and ji is posting 500mb maps for 11 months out. .
  23. jayyy
    The initial part of the storm will be hitting in sub 100 hours come tomorrow mornings runs. Saturday 00z will be the real test. Once that cutter comes and goes, how do models look? So close, yet so far.
  24. jayyy
    Been a while since I’ve seen you genuinely excited for a longwave pattern that sets up for more than a brief window of time. Probably since feb 2022, but even then, I believe you were cautiously optimistic as the typical caveats applied. Been a while since we haven’t had to rely on everything lining up perfectly. The tall tale sign of a good MA snow pattern is having numerous ways to score, not just one outcome that requires 5-6-7 different things to lineup perfectly. The CFS and other ensembles do look ridiculously good for February. Delayed but not denied if that were to pan out. Yes, it’s somewhat annoying that we’ve had to wait til 1/16 and beyond to see snow in our area but in reality, that’s only about 3’ish weeks into winter and we all know February is our money maker. All it takes is a decent or better showing from one or both of these next waves (16th and 20th) and an active February to put us above climo - potentially well above climo. IF models are correct about February showcasing a pattern that sustains a -AO/NAO/EPO regime, then woof. I also agree that if we have those lined up, we don’t want some big dog +PNA. Congrats NYC and new England if that happens. Give me a reloading -AO - NAO -EPO with a near neutral PNA and I bet we score big. Things are obviously going to shift around a bit, but models have generally nailed the longwave pattern 2-3-4 weeks out since fall. Exciting times, no doubt. .
  25. jayyy
    GEM being on its own is exactly what we want honestly. I’d take a GFS EURO combo all day. .
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