jayyy

That’s how it goes. Stronger primary that hangs onto its energy longer = worse for coastal and floods our layers with warm air. Medium sized primary dying a nice death as it hits e KY/ OH to a strong coastal is the key - then #tuckbabytuck

Lift and ratios and stuff mang. feeling really good about this one.

That’s all of Baltimore proper my dude. A ton of us.

Looks like about 1.75-2.25 for most of us from the naked eye. Can’t wait to see accumulated precip

This is the look right here!!!!

How long have you been at this to not know round 2 is not in NAMs wheelhouse at all Ji lol. Relax young Jedi. 0z tonight is much more important for the NAM

Not too close to use the EPS for the coastal. For part 1, yes.

From @MillvilleWx’s lips to my ears. Really digging todays trends for our area @psuhoffman

You have no idea how refreshing it is to have your reasoned, sound input back in here Bob. This is the same old game folks. If the storm does what it needs to do as far as evolution is concerned and it tucks, we’re in great shape. Obsessing over the the location of the CCB 36+ hours out is going to drive you insane and get ya nowhere. We’ve been dealt a great poker hand in a Nina winter , let’s see if the dealer flips over the river card that gives us the straight flush.

Craziest part about that RGEM run is we’ve never been terribly far away on models from having the low get captured and transfer earlier / further south as its showing here. The players have always been on the field for a biggie, as PSU keeps saying, but they just never really aligned on any model until now. Slight differences in the timing of the transfer, the track of the primary, ridging out west, the vort diving south on the back end, the track of the 700mb low, etc have left us within an insane range of solutions. Everything finally lined up on the Rgem and that’s the final product. Of course we shouldn’t expect these totals, but it’s been insanely consistent, and if others models trend in its direction... look out.

Are there people out there who don’t like 40” of snow? Like.... 12-18” is their “ideal storm” and 24+ is just “too much”? If so, they need to get checked out. They’ve lost their weenie way!

Holy shit I’ve missed you

if this storm comes to fruition, we all need to buy PSU a beer. — been analyzing models and breaking it all down for the rest of us day after day, run after run. Very appreciated sir.

Can’t ask for a much better pass than that.

I was gonna say! Are my tired eyes playing tricks on me?! lol! PS - panel 14 is a thing of beauty. That’s my birthday day. Lock it in.

Man. That was a solid EPS to end the night. Anybody else pumped for 6z? Alright. I need to sleep a little bit. Can’t wait to track some more with y’all in a few hours. T minus 30 hours until snow!!!!

Ohhhh, wow. That’s promising to see. Member 26 anybody? Bueller?

I’m so sleepy but I want to see more models runs that make me feel better hahaha

Show us you will

Analogs only give you a basic framework to work from. Nothing more

Let’s see what 6z has to say. The ole 6z//.. Notorious for depicting QPF laden bombs and clown maps within 36 hr, just to pull back at 12z. Man. Wish we had a LITTLE more consistency in solutions, but it’s hard when the models are trying to handle part 2 of a storm when part 1 is nowhere near the area and there’s so many moving parts associated with this setup. Miller b’s are tricky. They can’t bite us to the NE... but when they pan out....it’s a thing of perfection.

Also think we’re still plenty far away to still be able to use EPS / Euro and the Canadian to analyze the part 2 threat.

Perhaps euro is having trouble with all of the lifting / frontogenesis going on to the NE and precip to the W that it’s having convective issues in between. If someone told me that if I said yes, the surface, 500 and h5 setup would pan out exactly as tonight’s 0z euro depicts, I’d say yes in a heartbeat and chance the fact that the dry slot is placed too far west / too prominent. That upper air setup = MECS 9/10 times.

At least you could give the D (chord) whenever needed @Ji

Only way we make that up is if the low transfers / deepens early and south, and tucks with a solid h5 passage. That’s a lot of risk to bank on though.