jayyy

Right?? Where are the clown maps to give folks false hope 24 hours before the storm? Sheesh! Haha. All kidding aside... this storm has been the epitome of 2020 to track.

35/22 - Union bridge Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but looks like the RGEM brings in WAA snows earlier.

It would definitely be something if NWS lowered amounts, just to see things shift SE again 18z/0z tonight. #ReverseTheCurse

Definitely a trend SE on the NAM - SLP is a bit ESE and as PSUhoffman has been saying, there appears to be some closed circulation being hinted here. Let’s see if other models see this at all

One take away from 12z & 18z... models are still pretty clueless on a) strength and track of the primary SLP in OV b) positioning of the high and timing of its retreat c) a and b result in 50-60-70 mile differences in track on various models. Which clearly makes or breaks the storm for coasties Not the worst thing position in the world to be in with a legit airmass in place, but we definitely need to see more support than the 12z NAM before we can get remotely excited

Holy crap this is going to be real close for HoCo MoCo. Taking a looking at the upper levels, whoever stays mostly snow just west of the rain/snow line is going to be a secondary (albeit lower) jackpot of sorts. A few models point to pretty intense lift just west of the fall line. 12k NAM starting off 18z right with a slower progression and slightly deeper dig... let’s keep it going

All good. Had me excited for a moment

Just trying to stay positive for my fellow weenies closer to the coast. Although, I’m starting to feel a little uneasy about a sleet / FRZ RN fest up here as well if the bleeding doesn’t stop soon

Euro went East or west?

We’re not going to know where this is headed until the storm is here. Models have virtually zero agreement on how to handle the high to the NE, the primary in the Ohio valley, and in turn, the SLP / 850 low track. Just the slightest over amplification or under amplification of the primary in the OV throws the entire storm into limbo. Yes, this often doesn’t end well... but the overwhelming majority of ensembles look much better than the OP with the location of the SLP. The mouth of the bay versus 50 miles offshore makes or breaks the entire storm for the eastern half of the cwa

nyc isn’t getting screwed... again.

Hoping to see the models catch up today, not the other way around! Whew! Big runs coming up today.

It’s plausible if you believe the 12k nam’s thermals... tough model to hug however. Gotta see something big change today for me to believe this map comes to fruition.

8-12 for Baltimore in NWS’s newest map - doesn’t line up with its own WSW. Seems silly

Don’t worry, 6z will do it’s usual QPF dump and put out 30”clown maps Night sir.

100% Always bet on WAA snows from a Miller A over wraparound snows. If the CAD is even slightly underdone (very likely), we may see an area wide 3-6” before we even have to worry about the mix line. I think Baltimore sees 4-8” despite mixing issues at the height because of the initial dump.... unless the overall trend continues through tomorrow

I’ll donate $100 to DT if places like sykesville only see an inch. he has 1” inch and significant ice and 12-16” of snow awfully close together in MD / PA. ZERO chance this pans out.

Any shot that high stays anchored in bit longer (Better CAD than depicted) and pushes this baby south/southeast 30-40-50 miles? Or is everything too progressive at 500 mb for that to be a possibility?

100%. The OP run is definitely out of whack. I’d push the SLP at least 20-25 miles east

Who’s counting though, am I right?

Very interested to see how things shape up around rt 108/70. Could have eastern ellicott city seeing 4-7”, as western ellicott city / Marriottsville sees 7-10” with more as you head out west / north. Very sharp cutoff coming indeed. Would love to see 18z start a slight tick SE for folks closer to 95 to get in on the action. I’d gladly sacrifice a few inches up this way for my friends right down by da beach (bay)

Still has about a quarter inch of QPF left in the tank as well when that occurs. It’s never great to depend on back end snowfall though, especially with a storm that is riding through a fairly progressive 500 mb pattern. It’s 2020 though, anything can happen in this crazy year!

I second and third this motion. Chubbys is life.

Definitely a solid spot. Our son goes to mt saint marys and lives off campus in Thurmont. Looks like a foot is almost a sure bet up there. Looking similar here in Union bridge.

12z euro using kuchera is about a foot in Baltimore proper. Drops off steeply south of there. Woof. Gonna be close.