jayyy

Congrats! Just a small appetizer to gird your loins before we get cooked Jan 22 - February 10

Looking like there’s 1.5-2” OTG at home… in line with the WWA in place 0.4” in EC

Tomorrow would be in the 16-19th thread

I’m intrigued for tomorrow. Come on SR models. Do your thing

It’s certainly felt like winter all season. Now let’s get some moisture up in here!!!!

Been pretty remarkable to watch models back off long range depictions for 5+ straight months now. Can’t remember the last time we saw such a thing - especially in our favor. LR models continue to show our PAC pattern getting obliterated, they drop a deep trough into the PAC NW and pump a SE ridge downstream.. and it just never materializes. We end up losing the favorable PAC for a short time with some transient warmups and then things reload. Over and over again. Not sure how ENSO will impact any of this as we lose the Niña… but generally speaking, if we can get the STJ going with the 500mb setup we’ve had in place most of winter, the next 3 weeks has the *POTENTIAL* to be the best period we’ve had since 14-15

I know it’s the 12k NAM but 6z had 2-3” all the way back into central MD. Curious to see if the NAM holds strong on that idea today.

Nice burst at my brother’s place in Ellicott city right now too. Beautiful out there right now.

Some nice fatties falling at my brothers house in EC near turf valley

If we can manage a BN or even slightly BN February, (which would be pretty wild considering November - January was also BN) coupled with the STJ waking up… we could see a monster before the pattern eventually breaks down. Obviously all speculation but the ingredients seem to be coming together for the January 24 - February 10 timeframe to possibly be very special.

AIFS ensemble mean is lit up. Lord

Show us the dirty pics

Lemme catch you up: there was a 5-10” storm on the 18z gfs… It’ll disappear in about 3 hours on the next OP run and weenies will jump off ledges. Meanwhile, Cape bashes his head into a wall for having to repeat that people should be looking at ensembles this far out. You’re caught up. Now go drink

Flurrying on my drive into work. Currently on 29 south in Ellicott city .

That’s one way to put it

Been a long while since we’ve had an organized southern stream low run move across the south and run into an established cold dome. Simple overrunning setups work well here. Much rather a bowl pattern with an active STJ and cold air available to the north than have to rely on perfectly timed phasing, perfect ULL passes and unicorn farts.

Biggest run of the day for sure [emoji1787]

We know for a fact that models have performed very poorly outside of 7-10 days. The warm bias in the east by models 10+ days out has been off the charts for nearly 5 months now. A big western trough keeps getting forecasted, pumping heights to the east, we “torch”.. blah blah blah… it never materializes or ends up being very short lived. Temps have been well below normal all fall and winter. We are bound to see some moderation from time to time. Why you live and die by 240+ hour digital blue on OP runs knowing even ensembles can barely handle anything outside of 168 hours right now seems like a super stressful way to go about this hobby. The upcoming pattern isn’t going to have a big storm sniffed out by models 1-2 weeks out. It’s literally useless cliff diving this far out. Much more likely to see something pop up in the mid range (5-6 days) than you are to find a fantasy storm that models lock in on 1-2 weeks out

Exactly what I had in mind

Bingo. Give me a -EPO with some blocking and a flattish pna. Nice gradient type pattern with waves ejecting across the south into an established cold dome. The bob chill bowl / train tracks pattern. Much rather that than have both a roided EPO ridge and a spiked PNA. Simple overrunning setups work around these parts. They haven’t come very often over the past decade, but when they do.. they produce

SWS issued by NWS. 30% chance

Let the weenies suffer

Hell yes. I went to college at the university at buffalo. I very frequently LES band chased to the southtowns. So worth it. Dated a girl who went to Oswego. I’d go out there too when I could swing it. No shame in my snow chase game

Ji-bus answered your prayers

Super excited for your “0z took 18” away from me” post in 5 hours