jayyy
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Everything posted by jayyy
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Takes time to load a good NAMing
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Initial hunch is it’ll be a bit colder but drier. Let’s see
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It’s the correct forecast at this juncture honestly
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That’s the best part about being unreliable.
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HRRR at 38 hours? Why
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Pretty reasonable NWS map honestly. Sure, maybe totals along 95 are a bit risky given the uncertainty around track, but most areas look pretty much in line with the consensus of guidance - including dc and Baltimore.
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Appreciate you cutting that 10-14 contour over my house lol Solid map I’d say. In line with what I’m thinking generally too
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Broken clock is right twice a day! Who am I kidding… euro / cmc vs gfs [emoji22] I’m setting my bar at 8-10 up this way and will hope for the best
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00z Thursday is late Wednesday night’s runs though
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We won’t. And if people around here are mad about 6-10”+ before a flip to sleet that sticks around for 2 weeks, idk what to tell them.
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00z tonight is going to be interesting around these parts
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Sure do! Inside niño’esque type patterns. Which we haven’t seen much of in the past decade
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How’s the EPS look
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I’ll take a foot but yeah, euro needs to chill with the NW trend
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At least it’s a Miller A and should be somewhat less tedious to track
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GFS certainly has the full support of its ensembles. This is the literal exact situation we wouldn’t trust its thermals over the euro or NAM nest (inside 48 hrs) though. 6-10+ for the immediate metros and 8-12+ for areas away from 95 seems like a reasonable call at this juncture. Could we see 12-18” up this way? Maybe. But I’m going to play it safe with 8-12 with upside
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They all have sleet.. even the GFS (albeit the least) What gives BWI 10-13” is the massive thump of snow prior to the mixing. It’s also kuchera, which is probably dropping near 20:1 ratios at the peak.
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When are the next runs? (Not the NAM, I don’t look at anything other than the 3k inside 48hrs)
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9z sref for a storm 60+ hours away is diabolical.
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More snow, of course.
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We’re roughly 56-60 hours from first flakes on some models. Let’s reel this bad boy in today.
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Some nice subtle changes from 0z into 6z for our area. Nothing major but slightly colder upstairs and a slightly better HP position / cold press on some models. NBM GFS Euro Euro AI Ukie are all easy warning level events. Would love to see the trend toward some coastal love continue like the GFS is showing - especially for the 95 & east crew. If we can keep that primary south before a jump to the coast instead of it moving up into WV, it’s game on for a biggie for all
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It’s a blend of multiple models that does minor bias corrections along the way, i believe. The NBM is used quite a bit by mets at NWS to get an overall idea of where guidance is at
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The latest NBM is tasty AF. Let’s goooo
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Point click is lovely Saturday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 12. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Sunday Snow. High near 19. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Sunday Night Snow likely, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
