jayyy
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Everything posted by jayyy
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Lotta precip to our SW and cold thru 48. Only thing we should be taking away from RGEM. Fools errand using that model after 48 for sure
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The 18z gfs is notoriously moist
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Very, very curious to see the GFS and Ukie’s next run.
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Yeah it is. Noticeably colder than the 12k
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Back down to 44 but briefly hit 50
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We’re overdue for a 60 hour NAMing
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May not be a bad thing. Let’s see
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Takes time to load a good NAMing
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Initial hunch is it’ll be a bit colder but drier. Let’s see
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It’s the correct forecast at this juncture honestly
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That’s the best part about being unreliable.
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HRRR at 38 hours? Why
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Pretty reasonable NWS map honestly. Sure, maybe totals along 95 are a bit risky given the uncertainty around track, but most areas look pretty much in line with the consensus of guidance - including dc and Baltimore.
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Appreciate you cutting that 10-14 contour over my house lol Solid map I’d say. In line with what I’m thinking generally too
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Broken clock is right twice a day! Who am I kidding… euro / cmc vs gfs [emoji22] I’m setting my bar at 8-10 up this way and will hope for the best
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00z Thursday is late Wednesday night’s runs though
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We won’t. And if people around here are mad about 6-10”+ before a flip to sleet that sticks around for 2 weeks, idk what to tell them.
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00z tonight is going to be interesting around these parts
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Sure do! Inside niño’esque type patterns. Which we haven’t seen much of in the past decade
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How’s the EPS look
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I’ll take a foot but yeah, euro needs to chill with the NW trend
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At least it’s a Miller A and should be somewhat less tedious to track
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GFS certainly has the full support of its ensembles. This is the literal exact situation we wouldn’t trust its thermals over the euro or NAM nest (inside 48 hrs) though. 6-10+ for the immediate metros and 8-12+ for areas away from 95 seems like a reasonable call at this juncture. Could we see 12-18” up this way? Maybe. But I’m going to play it safe with 8-12 with upside
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They all have sleet.. even the GFS (albeit the least) What gives BWI 10-13” is the massive thump of snow prior to the mixing. It’s also kuchera, which is probably dropping near 20:1 ratios at the peak.
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When are the next runs? (Not the NAM, I don’t look at anything other than the 3k inside 48hrs)
