jayyy

Should Probably not be using ensembles 72+ hours out for minute details on QPF / Bending setup. Mesos will catch up with actual QPF totals.

Looks like Baltimore hangs on better than DC as well

Honestly think this is exactly where we want to be on the UKMET at this point. Great run!

It actually retrogrades twice. Once off MD/DE and again east of Boston

100%. The longer the primary holds on / the stronger it is, the more it pumps warm air into our area out ahead of it. It’s also more likely that h5 passes to our north with a stronger, more north primary. ideally, we want the transfer to happen as early and south as possible. both in terms of precip blossoming and temps crashing

EPS looks pretty good to the naked, tired 8:12 AM eye - quicker transfer for sure.

NWS seems awfully bullish. Saturday Night A chance of snow, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday Snow, mainly after 7am. High near 32. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Sunday Night Snow likely. The snow could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Monday Snow likely. The snow could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Monday Night A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Would it bode well, especially for those folks east of the fall line, to have a nice 4-6” base of snow area wide going into round 2 as far as thermals are concerned?

Give me that one member that shows a 993 low due East of VAB. That’s all I ask. Sub 990 low as it passes by OBX.. mmm, that’s the good stuff.

You Nailed the suspicion about the OP run being north of the cluster @psuhoffman. 90% of those SLP depictions would be money

Nice NE wind wrapping around and driving colder air into the back of the storm. If we do see mixing, should be relatively short lived versus the entire duration of the storm

Let the high res models iron those details out. The euro isn’t going to nail thermals this far out. If h7 passes to our south near CHO, I doubt Baltimore sees much of any mixing.

If we can get the low to start bombing out here instead of just east of rehobeth, we may get lucky. Going to be awfully close with the coastal.

Curious to see what NAM has to say tomorrow night

It being a weather model 72+ hours out should naturally give any of us reason to question it. We’ll see once the EPS run wraps up if this OP was a northern outlier or not

You must live in NoVA. The king of jackpot depictions 100+ hours out that never pan out

I think the December storm that showed 40”for us within 100 hours only for it to snow 7-8” and it snow 40+“ in Binghamton is haunting me

Shift the storm 30 miles SSE and that 24+ jackpot is right over us. Seasonal trend says not so fast however. I was never worried about suppression. I was worried about Harrisburg to Boston getting crushed. This setup reminds me of many classic Miller b’s that dumped 18+” on the New York metro area in the early 2000s when I lived up that way. Not all of them miss us down here, but some certainly do - especially from dc south. I’d take the euro / cmc blend and run with it but boy, are we playing with fire here if this trend North doesn’t halt big time by tomorrow night

I’m in that light blue shading between 18.5 and 23.4. I may have fainted for a moment.

Harrisburg to philly gets walloped.

Looks better for Baltimore than DC for sure

Another 8+ run area wide coming for sure.

Agreed. Have a feeling nyc ends up with 20” by the time this takes shape. As somebody who grew up in the NW suburbs of NYC, this type of setup is RIPE for a costal New England bomb now that we see the confluence likely won’t be overbearing and suppress the storm. The question is... does it get going early / south enough for the mid Atlantic to get in on the coastal too? 12z euro / CMC blend is exactly what we need to see for this to come together around these parts. Here’s to hoping!

Helluva PZF Sunday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Sunday Night Snow. Low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Monday Snow likely before 1pm, then rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Monday Night A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

12+” area wide DC to Baltimore the CMC shows would be a fantastic storm in a Nina. Woof. EPS/Euro/CMC/Ukie and early looks of the NAM say game on - think it’s time we start to get a bit excited.