jayyy

It’s nice to see the RGEM and hi res NAM looking very similar within 48.

NAM’d!!!! Let’s go!!!

I may very well be going down to see my brother in HoCo for this one. Seems to be a solid spot to be. Far enough north for good temps and far enough south to get in on some of the goods

So.. you’re saying we shouldn’t live and die by digital snow maps? Hehe

Why not? A very legit meteorologist just explained 1 page back why this very well could be 8-10:1 ratios... and maybe along the Maryland coast ratios will be lower, but they could easily be 10:1 out this way.

Dark sky is forecasting 4-7” for next Friday. BOOK IT Seriously though... intrigued by the prospects of the next week or two

That was a hell of a move north. I’ll take 5” (don’t you dare say it)

That’s a solid trend ^^. PLENTY of room to improve with 60 to go. Hope to wake up to good news! Goodnight my friends

Appreciate the insight, as always @psuhoffman. I’ll take a sizable trend in our direction 60 hours out and call it a win. If this season has taught our region anything, it’s that a storm will absolutely not do what models are showing at 60. Plenty of time. Ill be worried if the cmc looks the same at 12z tomorrow

Patiently waiting for @psuhoffman to drop the good news about the CMC’s improved look

We are roughly 60 hours out... correct me if I’m wrong, but 60 hours out from the previous storm, we were potentially expecting feet, not inches. Things went north rather quickly within 60. We don’t want that here. We are close. Not there yet, but things have most certainly trended in our direction. I’d rather OP runs look suppressed with an improving look upstairs conducive of a storm that can amplify / come north, than have a jackpot over our heads this far out. Be calm, my friends. We got this.

Ji won’t be satisfied until the jackpot is in his backyard.

Relax bud. If 12z tomorrow looks suppressed, we can begin to worry a bit. Think about where we were 24-36 hours ago.

Idk about that man. You’re in a prime spot for this one.

Agreed that the look at h5/500 actually improved quite a bit, despite the track further SE on the OP run. Have a feeling by the time this is all said and done, the 95 corridor will be the place to be. Will likely go down to my brothers in ellicott city for this one. PS - maybe Richmond won’t be disappointed after all

Sounds about right. Exactly why I dislike the model. Oh? It’s going to snow between 0-10”?! Tell me more SREF

SREF is another one of those “it’s good to have on our side but don’t rely on it” models. Doesn’t hurt, but it doesn’t excite me. SREF’s are always snowy it seems. Gimme that 0z NAM’ing all day!!

Nope.

P09 please!

Perfect spot to be in 72+ out in this setup on the GFS. We know it’s trending WNW over the next 48

Yeah, except not all of that snow is snow. ICON doesn’t account for sleet / ice etc. definitely been super consistent with this one since day 1

Alright folks I’ll be back tonight! Here’s to a solid 18z!

Cold air will definitely not be as deep as we thought it would be for Sunday at this point a few days ago. However, a storm that tracks well to our SE will draw in cold NW winds. It will be close, but the PARA, NAM, euro and GEFS all kind of show you how we can overcome the marginal setup at the surface if things fall into place.

I do think this storm has a better shot at producing a regionwide snowfall (coast & inland) than the last storm, just not with the high totals. A widespread 2-4, lollipop 5-6” type storm could be in the cards if it all lined up. Better QPF near and east of 95, better ratios and dendrite growth up north... you know, the usual. The timing with precip falling mainly overnight / early AM and the arrival of cold air is beginning to look like it could work out just how we need it to. going to be an interesting next 24 hours of model watching. I’m off work at 730, so I look forward to reading everyone’s thoughts about the 18z suite. Speaking of which.... NAM should be out soon, no?

More like wishcasting for MBY.... this is a cut throat hobby my friend. No two ways about it. Either way the cookie crumbles, a bunch of people will be disappointed come Monday morning. Just a snow weenie hoping it’s not me is all. Nothing but love always.