jayyy

Show us you will

Analogs only give you a basic framework to work from. Nothing more

Let’s see what 6z has to say. The ole 6z//.. Notorious for depicting QPF laden bombs and clown maps within 36 hr, just to pull back at 12z. Man. Wish we had a LITTLE more consistency in solutions, but it’s hard when the models are trying to handle part 2 of a storm when part 1 is nowhere near the area and there’s so many moving parts associated with this setup. Miller b’s are tricky. They can’t bite us to the NE... but when they pan out....it’s a thing of perfection.

Also think we’re still plenty far away to still be able to use EPS / Euro and the Canadian to analyze the part 2 threat.

Perhaps euro is having trouble with all of the lifting / frontogenesis going on to the NE and precip to the W that it’s having convective issues in between. If someone told me that if I said yes, the surface, 500 and h5 setup would pan out exactly as tonight’s 0z euro depicts, I’d say yes in a heartbeat and chance the fact that the dry slot is placed too far west / too prominent. That upper air setup = MECS 9/10 times.

At least you could give the D (chord) whenever needed @Ji

Only way we make that up is if the low transfers / deepens early and south, and tucks with a solid h5 passage. That’s a lot of risk to bank on though.

#fulltuck im baffled though. Placement, h5/h7... they all look great. God I hope that dry slot is wrong. Without that, it’s a region wide burial.

Show us

Slight but noticeable.

Philly to Trenton is going to get ham-boned.

Always good to have in your camp. Never good if it’s the only one in your camp, however

Dark sky forecast calls for 3-6” Sunday and 4-7” Monday. Wouldn’t that be nice!

Right under that Rockville-Columbia deathband!!!

Baltimore city sees 1.25” + of QPF. Nuts

Shut up. This really you?!

Guess we’ll see how the RGEM pans out versus reality. It’s been the most consistent.

Pretty positive I may be going to my brothers in EC for this one. I think MoCo, HoCo, NE toward bel air and points NE could potentially cash in from both systems. Gonna wait until tomorrow to ultimately decide.

Not so ICONic

Yep. They are worried about a sharp NW cutoff I think. That, or timing and it’ll be issued with the evening package

Agreed. Also think part 2 is a) too uncertain and b) too far out for watches

Wild. Baltimore city is awfully close to that. 1+ QPF in 6 hours is wild

Nice to see watches up along 95. Looks to only be through Sunday night too

When I said models are converging on a solution envelop - I meant that they are much closer with their solutions than they were 48 hours ago. Of course, there are still key differences between models (the ones I mentioned), but models are absolutely getting closer, not further apart. That’s all I was saying. 0z tonight should be the beginning of a consensus with the storm arriving 24-36 hours out from there. We’ll see.

0z tonight we will have our final consensus. Looks like models, while having subtle differences with confluence, vort, and the trough... are definitely converging on a solution envelop. our typical fears as mid atlantic residents are alive and well here.... will the primary transfer be clean, will it be far enough south, and will h5/h7 pass by and then close in a favorable position near CHO to allow the precip shield to blossom on the NW flank and not just firehose up into Delaware / NJ. NYC, NJ, and coastal NE will score big from this. I’ve lived in a thousand times up that way and I’ve said it for nearly a week - this has NYC Miller b special written all over it. That being said, we can cash on 6-12+ Type storm even with nyc being jacked if the cards fall into place on the transfer. Tonight’s 0z NAM, RGEM and GFS will be extremely key