jayyy
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Everything posted by jayyy
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Filthy. Plain filthy. Let’s GO!!!!
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Yeah, I don’t. Unless reporting snow totals and OBS. during a storm bothers you. anyway.... let’s move on.
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NAM looks like a strung out POS versus 12z and 18z
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Just trying to protect that H2snOw bubble!
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We northern folk have had pretty good luck up our way, just saying
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Careful what you wish for m’dude
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Woof. HoCo MoCo death band incoming!?
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Probably the best map they’ve made within 48 hours all season. Suspect they will add a 6-8 inch stripe in Maryland at some point between now and Saturday, but since its so difficult to nail down specifics in these types of banding dependent storms, this is a good, safe call.
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Sounds like this guy wrote up CWG’s forecast and wants answers.
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Only when Richmond is disappointed
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Bastards! hahaha
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That’s... not how that works. At all. You have that backwards. If it’s a super wet, dense snow, snowfall to QPF ratios are lower lol Cold temps + powder snow = higher ratios. Doubt we see powder. 12.1 for our latitude seems reasonable.
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30:1 ratios!? Sure. Same bro.
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That’s why you don’t use those maps to make any sort of meaningful forecast prediction. They are clown maps for a reason.
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3-5” as a baseline area wide is a great call. Zero shot it has any idea about meso/banding details however. @MillvilleWx and @csnavywx explained it best, but we’re going to have some big heartbreak awfully close by to the jackpot zones with this setup. 10” in one location could mean 4-5” a few miles down the road
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Looking better and better for us as the hours go on
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Who is we, Kimosabe?
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Hell no. I’m good on all that. RGEM is cursed until further notice
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We get a great 12z suite and NAM starts off the 18z suite with a nice hit and people are still finding something to whine about lol. Love you guys, but come on, we know this. Same song and dance every storm. The likelihood our entire CWA sees a warning level snowstorm — where everyone from the shoreline to PSUHoffman sees 6+ is almost 0%. It’s just not a thing that ever really occurs around here, especially not in a marginal setup. Let’s zone in folks. A Nice snowfall is heading our way!!
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Leaning toward staying here for sure - especially after we’ve seen a giant bump in QPF up here
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I’m waiting until 12z tomorrow to decide whether or not I spend this one up here in union bridge or down at my broski’s in Howard county. Going to be an interesting balance of better temps/ratios and lower QPF with higher QPF but more marginal temps. Think we could see 10-12:1 ratios up this way tbh. Also think we actually have a better shot at that meso mauling being further north but those details will get ironed out in the next 24 hopefully.
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GFS looked great. Don’t worry about clown maps / QPF, this is a MESO model storm for details through and through. Especially with all of that 700mb frontogenesis action going on. That 12z gfs setup means good snow for almost all of us. Ukie also looked good - and probably too dry versus the actual outcome of a storm that evolved in such a manner. Very exciting trends going on. Maybe my house is safe up here after all.
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That orange blob over my house can stay right there
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You think it’ll go north? You don’t say - you’ve said it 30 times since yesterday.
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For sure. Way too much volatility with this to confidently issue until then at least
