jayyy

Nice swath of heavy snow in western NC and NW SC. thunderstorms being reported in TN. Great sign.

I missed you man.

#juicy

You don’t say..... Luckily for you, that’s been the trend all season. Storms end up 50-75 miles NW of what’s progged day before.

Temp down to 36.5 already up here in N Frederick county. Bodes well I’d say

0.25” of QPF will give you the same amount of snow as coasties who see half an inch of liquid. Think you’ll be alright for 2-3” sir.

Think you guys are prime for 3-5 from Montgomery to Howard to Baltimore counties. I agree - current OBS look better (Temps & radar) than models depicted at this point.

I’m at the Mount in Emmitsburg to drop my son off at school - there is about 2-3” in snowcover remaining in spots that didn’t get much sun.... but also none in spots that do. Wild. Nearly 30” gone in 5’ish days. Going to be great to get another fresh coating

At this point, comparing current OBS to models is definitely the best tool we have to get an idea of how this will go and is much more productive than the live and die by each kuchera snow map approach some take. Know your climo folks! If you live on the water, you’re probably not seeing more snow than PSU or mappy in a marginal storm. That’s just.... the reality we live in here in our CWA

Our perspectives are likely geared toward the way our my BYs perform in this type of setup. Bob and I tend to do decently here, being away from the bay and urban heat island. A defined SLP of this strength tracking where it is 9 times out of 10 is giving areas along and NW of I-95 3-5”. Heavy snow at sunrise through noon? It’s sticking.

Actually one of the more reasonable maps I’ve seen. This is a Classic 2-5” type event with lollipop 6-7” for our area. Buckle up and enjoy my friends

What señor chill said.

Or... wait for it... a team of meteorologists who work for NWS didn’t hug trends on kuchera run snow maps and used a combination of knowledge of the setup, the overall track, and all of the other factors we discuss daily in here to make an informed decision on a forecast that’s meant to inform the public of what could be coming. If they downplayed this as a 1-3 event and we saw 6+“ in 6-10 hours, it would catch a ton of people off guard and cause harm. Let’s remember the actual point of warnings issued by LWX or any other NWS office.

100%. I actually think my brother down in Howard county will do better than me up here in Carroll county, but I don’t see places in SoMD doing better in a marginal event. Guess you never know though.

On grass and car tops? Probably all of it. On roads? Probably not much.

YUP!

Warnings and advisories issued. Watches remain up in areas of uncertainty it appears... Warnings: 3-6 Nova/dc through central MD 4-7 northern tier (Frederick Co on East - they included Baltimore city and all of Baltimore county) 5-10 for BR mountains WWA’s Winchester - Hagerstown for 2-4 Calvert/St. Mary's for 2-5

Definitely. 95 special looking a little more likely than at this point yesterday. The fat lady hasn’t sung yet! WINTER STORM Warnings just posted btw

Pretty damn solid for an EPS mean 24 out. Let’s do this! Hope to see things juice back up a bit at 6z, but a nice 3-6” event sounds great

Agree. Think the dc to Baltimore corridor and points in between are in for the goods here. Won’t be a foot, but it’ll be a great Sunday morning and afternoon.

Apologize for the size of the attachment. 24 hr max precip - latest SREF. Plops a 1.5-.75 max on Baltimore 12 hr max is pretty wild too .75+ for much of the area What a battle between the much wetter mesos and drier ensembles

models must have been meh based on the banter fest going on

Correct me if I’m wrong, @MillvilleWx (I really appreciate all of your insight) this storm is the perfect type to play to the biases of the GFS. It doesn’t really do well historically with quick hitting meso dependent storms that track through the far SE portion of the CWA. Feel like the NAM/RGEM etc and Mesos would be much more reliable inside 48 over an ensemble.

Looks like they solidified that 4-6” stripe. Mostly unchanged.

I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I’m impressed by how the ICON handled the evolution of this from the get.