jayyy

It’s like the snow gods purposely bring l storms back north just so Ji can watch everyone around him do better than he does.

Agree. Think things actually look a bit better overall for our immediate area despite the painful verbatim depiction of the sharp cutoff seen on OP runs. Just give me a better look - and let climo and seasonal trends take care of the rest GFS/Ukmet/Para/GEFS/ICON/Rgem/RDPS all bring 0.5”+ QPF to our area. That’s a solid event for us with temps in the upper 20s

I think it’s the cold bias. For example, it’ll depict 0.6” of QPF as all snow with decent ratios, when in reality it’s more like 0.4” of 10:1 ratio or less snow and some potential mixing. It doesn’t do very well depicting mid levels

Hoping to see the GFS / UKMET both come in the same as 12z on their next runs. They’ve been the most consistent.

Because those cutoffs ever verify as depicted. No worries - it’ll be 30 miles north at least. It always is.

Thanks bud!

ICON and RDPS definitely shine a light on what I think is the biggest question mark. Central MD. Just the slightest difference brings much more significant precip to their doorstep. Going to be real close.

Have an image? I’m stuck working in the midst of the organized chaos that is the Apple store! Thx in advance!

This is what I’m saying. Central MD between DC/BAL is still a huge unknown IMO. Models vary from 0.3” to 0.8” in QPF. HUGE difference. 0z should hopefully bring a bit more clarify with some better sampling

Since when is Winchester well south of Baltimore. It’s almost the same exact latitude as Columbia

Alright, let’s get another solid GFS run in here at 18z to bring us back from the ledge.

If Models aren’t agreeing on some key elements of wave 1... how can they possibly be nailing wave 2? Agree. Think it’s going to be a wait and see situation. We may not know what’s coming with round 2 until round 1 has passed us by.

I don’t disagree about the northern cutoff and dry air eating away at precip. I just don’t see it being that far south. I can see me, ClSkins, and PSU getting fringed hard, Baltimore getting a bit over 0.5” in QPF, with more further south. Guess it’s possible though.

I really like a blend of what the GFS/UKMET depicted at 12z for the area. A foot of snow? No. But a solid 4-6+ for most of us.

100% guarantee things end up further north than what is being progged on the 18z NAM if the low takes the track depicted. The sharp cutoff will definitely happen somewhere, I just don’t see central MD (between DC and BAL) seeing such little precip. A low that rides into southern VA barely getting precip north of the VA MD border? Seems odd

48+ hours out from this part of the storm - heaviest snow 50 miles south.... sounds like exactly where we want to be right now honestly.

Looks like a ESE DC and SoMD jack - near 1” of liquid with QPF tapering to about 0.5” as you head toward Baltimore. Less further north.

not too shabby

I expect a bit of a last second correction with QPF on the north side of the storm as we get closer to the event. Not necessarily via the storm trending north... but I think the cutoff being depicted on the Euro for you folks located between DC and BAL is a bit exaggerated. GFS/UKMET may be onto something here. PSU is right... it will be a battle up in the far northern tier with a dry flow eating away from the north, but I think places like HoCo MoCo and Baltimore could certainly see solid QPF (~.7-.8) when all is said and done if the flow is even a LITTLE less overbearing up in PA. May be of nowcast type situation for folks between DC/BAL

That’s wild. It’s 40.5 here.

This won’t be a pixie dust type snow. Not in this setup.

Oh crud! For some reason I thought you said 17” a few days back, my apologies!

That’s not how it works and you know that. Having a -NAO/-AO doesn’t guarantee anything but the possibility of cold and blocking. PAC influence is huge, among a ton of other factors we talk about day to day. having a -AO & NAO certainly doesn’t mean we’ll hit climo BEFORE the snowiest month of the season even gets going. Some of it is just plain bad luck and things not working out in the moment by 10 or 20 miles in any given direction. PSU’s and my area are less than 10” from climo, as are many other areas besides 95 and points east. Columbia is at 11” for the season in early February... pretty decent versus the previous few seasons if you ask @WxUSAF, even if it’s been a bumpy, sometimes frustrating ride to get there.

We’re officially in the red!

Last storm I was glad I made the last second decision to stay put at my house due to the marginality of the event.... for this one, definitely still contemplating going a bit south to my brothers. W suburbs of DC/BAL appear to be a in a better spot for QPF with more than sufficient enough temps. UK backs this notion for sure. Shocker... another event where we are within 48 hours from start time and we are still seeing a 2-12” spread on the models