jayyy

Agreed. I’d argue that at least 60% of folks base their expectations off 10:1 or kuchera clown maps from 4+ days out and do little to no further digging into what models are showing at h5, 500 mb, 850, etc. Nor do they follow basic trendlines. Many folks live and die off of losing or gaining digital snow, which is the same as literally getting on your knees and begging the snow gods to be disappointed. If people’s attitude toward storms is “well, so and so model showed MBY getting 18” a week ago, and I only got 5”, so this is a huge bust”, then yeah, sure. models are awful. But that’s not how meteorology works and that’s not how you analyze a weather model. Each model has its own biases and some models are better than others in a given situation. That’s why you’ll see LWX sometimes go with the storm track of the euro, but the thermal profile of the NAM. They understand how these models differ and correlate and how to best use / blend them based on their individual strengths and weaknesses The euro has actually been quite good actually this winter if you compare what it shows 3-5 out versus reality. NAM has also done quite well within 48 hours. Did DC get rain/slop versus a few inches of snow? Yes. But that’s what we use mesos for. The NAM showed that possibility and it came to fruition. Even Winchester mainly sleeted last night. It sniffed out that warm nose due to its higher resolution versus an ensemble like the Euro. That’s why NWS and other Mets consider multiple guidances when making an informed decision. Models rarely get it right from start to finish, but they grasp the overall idea and narrow the storm down into a 20-50 mile window. That’s pretty damn impressive. Combine those great tools with basic a understanding of meteorology and the climo IYBY, people will find themselves far less disappointed. There is a reason @Bob Chill doesn’t obsess over storms until the threat is within 3-5 days. It’s the logical thing to do when it comes to something like the weather, which can change on a dime.

Euro isn’t a day away type of model though. It’s an ensemble. It’s the “mid range king” 3-5 out

“Wave 2” is dying a slow death on models. Wonder how DT is feeling looking at guidance this AM. He get rid of his 10” in Richmond idea yet

I was waiting to hear how it went up by you. I was noticing that the bands in my area and in Baltimore proper were robbing lift from your area and northern Baltimore county during the height of things. Not a bad snow pack builder though!

Tuesday looks like it may be ripe for people west, and perhaps even along 95 - north of DC. Trends looks really good with 3+ days to go. I’m actually quite excited for that one up this way.

Verified the 4-8” warning with 5.75”. Didn’t quite hit 6” like I thought. I’m at 670ft elevation

Think these next two bands will do the trick for you. If that band over Hagerstown continues its current path and doesn’t fall apart, it should get you over the top.

Another band incoming for folks from Germantown over to Columbia, as well as another (stronger ) band in its footsteps, headed SE from Hagerstown. Both bands should affect C MD over the next hour or two.

Good point. That’s very true. Models have showed cutters in the long range all winter long just to move them 500+ miles East come storm time 1-2 weeks later. Next 2-3 weeks should be fun around these parts. Seriously can’t complain about tracking 6-7-8 potential winter events over a 2 week span in a niña winter. Dc proper has just had horrific luck with temps in what has been an otherwise awesome pattern. Any winter that produces climo totals IMBY by February 11th over 5+ storms is pretty solid in my book. All this winter is missing for our area is the elusive region wide biggie.

Next Tuesday could end up east enough for you guys to cash in on a biggie. If not then, there is a long range threat being honked by GFS/EPS around the 24th/25th (after a big lakes cutter reloads the pattern next weekend ) This threat appears to be a strong Miller A with ample cold air around - which could be major snowstorm for 90+% of this forum. Obviously we are WAY too far out to be talking specifics about it, but the overall pattern around that time looks ripe. MJO will be phase 8, -NAO will be freshly reloaded with a nicely placed ridge out west. Lots of time for things to change clearly, but the threat potential looks to go out at least another 2 weeks (outside of a brief few day warm up as the pattern reloads late next week)

I think we have a decent shot at some solid snow on Tuesday, especially in our neck of the woods, with a few more adjustments East over the next 3-4 days. The threat certainly looks better on the 6z GFS/Euro than it did yesterday. Let’s see if a trend continues moving forward

Ahhh. That makes total sense! Seeing multiple reports of 4.5, 5, and 5.5” down in EC too. Not at all surprised by that. I was pretty confident they’d hit the max end of their advisory.

8-9” between eldersburg and owings mills? You sure? That seems a bit high. Unless you’re higher elevation than me at 690 ft. Or am I thinking of the wrong Oakland?

I could definitely see guys having 5.8” down by you in sykesville. I think you guys may have gotten similar, if not better banding than I did up here and we hit 6” on the dot. We had absolutely no mixing though and I’m above 650 in elevation

Sure man. You guys can have it lol. Watches down that way have been dropped for advisories for slop and 2” max. I’m alright on that. Verified our winter storm warning last night.

Poor @dailylurker this winter has made you miserable. I’d probably laugh at every threat too with the winter you all are having down there. We’ve now comfortably surpassed 30” on the season up this way and both next Tuesday and beyond show serious potential, especially for inland areas. I’ll most certainly be interested

After a big cutter later next week, the EPS/GFS reload the pattern with a nice west coast ridge and subsequent east coast trough, followed by a big snow threat - could be our best shot all year. Cold air with rapid intensification off the coast of Hatterus. Multiple models seeing the 24th-26th as a ripe period for a storm to bomb out along the coast.

It’s going to be icy as all hell for NoVa and MD according to the euro and gfs this weekend before the snow threat early next week.

Gfs starting to beef next Tuesday into a real threat. Of course, lots to iron out but... a big storm is looking more likely.

GFS!!!! Ice fest for this weekend and quite snowy for Tuesday with a deepening storm off the coast. Going to be a wild 3-5 days.

6z GFS at 24 hr... so close.

It’s a damn shame we won’t get hit by thi.... the radar is still LIT up.

You must have passed right by me on 70 going in the other direction!

For sure! I was shocked to see snow lighten up as I got up to mount Saint Mary’s around 930. Better snow pack, but less new snow . It seemed like MSM was JUST too far north to get in on the heavier banding... that or the area was being robbed of some lift due to subsidence because of the very heavy snow falling right to the south. Once I left the mount and went down 15 toward 70, the roads / snow got noticeably worse in Thurmont and again when I got to 70 near Frederick. The left lane of 70 was completely covered with snow near Monrovia and Frederick and I saw multiple car crashes happen. Quite the drive.

Is it just my sleepy weenie eyes, or does the moisture in WV look like it’s headed directly our way?