We say that every time. However, when the track of the storm and overall setup on the NAM is nearly identical to other models but shows father north mid level warm air intrusion, it’s typically right. Sadly. Hope it’s dead wrong here.
Anybody else notice 18z initializations versus ground reality are not really all that close? Rain snow line and precip shield don’t line up whatsoever with current obs. (Correct me if I’m wrong please)
I think there’s a solid chance your area busts on the positive side like last storm. Boom chance on the front end is quite high just west of 95 where the initial thump will have plenty of cold air to work with and QPF is greatest. Hope it all works out ! HRRR and other short terms were the first to sniff out the potential last go around within 24 hours of onset
I don’t disagree. I guess, to me, that 3-6 and ice isn’t exactly terrible either for a storm that was supposed to cut west of us less than 90 hours ago
Oh, hell yes. Definitely fear it’s a bit overdone with its somewhat cold bias in the mid levels (not as good at catching warming at 700 as mesos like the NAM are) but a solid overall look. Thinking 4-6” for Baltimore before a sloppy mess
Yeah dude. The SV map counts sleet/ice as snow. QPF is higher down that way and it counts sleet/ZR as snow - hence the higher totals depicted. Those SV maps are useless.