jayyy

little too far out to trust a hi-res model

Think the 95 crew likely has the best shot here at getting precip heavy enough to overcome the borderline column. Wouldn’t mind seeing the Precip timing shift to overnight for sure

Models always need a little time to adjust after a big storm has exited stage right to get a grasp on the 500mb setup moving forward. Nothing about this setup screams suppression for Sunday anymore.

The trend toward a more amplified solution has officially begun. Said this like 4 days ago, but a nice little 1-4” type storm is the most likely outcome this Sunday if it does hit. Timing of precip also shifting a bit in our favor for colder temps. If this is a daytime storm, we’re likely in trouble.

Perfectly ok with a 2-4 3-6 type storm to kick off this ripe February pattern

0z Euro may be telling as to whether or not it’ll be the one caving, or Vice versa.

I’m just sitting here in complete awe that flakes are still falling from this storm. Same band of light snow with occasional bursts remains overhead. Great way to end the night and storm. Can confidently say we ended with over 11” here. Goodnight all.

Actually pretty encouraged by trend on the GEFS. not going to stay up for it, but curious to see what 0z euro has to say

another foot for NYC you say?

Suspect the GFS will still be squashed south.... but it would be nice to see it begin to at least hint a north solution is possible at h5/500mb. We’re about 5 days out

Still going here. Somehow?

Snowing nicely now here in UB. I imagine it’ll swing your way

My brother is reporting SN in Ellicott city. Seems to match radar with that band overhead. One last hoorah for that area it appears

Flakes should begin flying east of 29 within the half hour

You can tell the low is beginning to move ever so slowly east. In the very last frame of the regional radar, the snow bands streaming north to south begin to have an easterly movement to them. Should be expected that these bands and showers will pull east toward the bay as the dynamics shift east with the storm.

This upcoming pattern is the type in which models may not sniff out potential overrunning events until 3/4 days out. Lots of cold air to deal with, a nice block, and an active jet... now we wait for it all to line up. I do think we can sneak a few 1-3 and 2-4 type events in there between bigger threats between now and late February. Patterns ripe for snow.

You should probably leave the obs thread if you’re gonna throw a pity party each time someone posts a snow obs lol i know it stings my friend. Next ones yours.

Looks like like you should be seeing some of this band that’s stretching from my area thru Hoco, no?

Yuuuup! Already getting some decent snow up here in union bridge. Looks like another band is ready to move on in behind it

Congrats! You’ve been super patient for that first 4+ snowfall. Glad it finally panned out

Borderline moderate snow with fattie flakes have returned. 32 degrees.

You can definitely see when looking at the 0z suite from last night that the potential is there at 500mb and h5 for something to happen this weekend. However, the latest CMC shows you exactly how things could fall apart before they ever get started. Gonna be interesting to see how models handle this.

The euro did pretty damn well with this past storm from 8 days out. Some folks firmly believe a few clown maps of 20-40” from various runs 7+ days out not verifying means the mode busted - that couldn’t be further from the truth. That’s not how analytics work when you’re trying to figure out the reliability of a model. It nailed many aspects of this storm, and the track of both the primary and the secondary coastal low. The fact that it missed some of the aspects regarding h5/h7 and where the best moisture feed would be, but nailed the rest (cold, confluence, storm track) is pretty damn impressive. NWS and Mets don’t use a singular model to make a forecast for a reason: because no model will nail every aspect of a storm. We shouldn’t expect that from any model either as snow enthusiasts As far as next weekend is concerned, the GFS is showing its typical SE bias given the setup at 500mb and strong confluence to the north. If EPS/Euro/Ukie/Canadian are consistent with the overall potential, as we are seeing on the euro today, but are simply shifting solutions by 50-100-150 miles either way this far out - that’s perfectly fine. The GFS being suppressed and the euro showing the potential is exactly where we want to be right now. If by Thursday the GFS still shows nothing, then we can begin to worry about a miss. The upcoming pattern is absolutely ripe for Miller A’s and overrunning type events. Let’s get it!!!

What a weird, weird storm. However, 3 straight days of cold and wintry weather is stellar in my book. Looks incredible up here in the woods. Couple notes: My brother in west Ellicott city said he woke up 2” of the white stuff, super fluff. Still snow showers out that way This makes 2 double digit snowfalls in Carroll county by February 2nd in a Nina winter - ain’t too shabby. I know some folks didn’t cash in this time, but Sunday and beyond look primes for storm chances with region wide rippage.

Well... this was a crazy surprise to wake up to. Wow!