jayyy

We get a great 12z suite and NAM starts off the 18z suite with a nice hit and people are still finding something to whine about lol. Love you guys, but come on, we know this. Same song and dance every storm. The likelihood our entire CWA sees a warning level snowstorm — where everyone from the shoreline to PSUHoffman sees 6+ is almost 0%. It’s just not a thing that ever really occurs around here, especially not in a marginal setup. Let’s zone in folks. A Nice snowfall is heading our way!!

Leaning toward staying here for sure - especially after we’ve seen a giant bump in QPF up here

I’m waiting until 12z tomorrow to decide whether or not I spend this one up here in union bridge or down at my broski’s in Howard county. Going to be an interesting balance of better temps/ratios and lower QPF with higher QPF but more marginal temps. Think we could see 10-12:1 ratios up this way tbh. Also think we actually have a better shot at that meso mauling being further north but those details will get ironed out in the next 24 hopefully.

GFS looked great. Don’t worry about clown maps / QPF, this is a MESO model storm for details through and through. Especially with all of that 700mb frontogenesis action going on. That 12z gfs setup means good snow for almost all of us. Ukie also looked good - and probably too dry versus the actual outcome of a storm that evolved in such a manner. Very exciting trends going on. Maybe my house is safe up here after all.

That orange blob over my house can stay right there

You think it’ll go north? You don’t say - you’ve said it 30 times since yesterday.

For sure. Way too much volatility with this to confidently issue until then at least

It’s nice to see the RGEM and hi res NAM looking very similar within 48.

NAM’d!!!! Let’s go!!!

I may very well be going down to see my brother in HoCo for this one. Seems to be a solid spot to be. Far enough north for good temps and far enough south to get in on some of the goods

So.. you’re saying we shouldn’t live and die by digital snow maps? Hehe

Why not? A very legit meteorologist just explained 1 page back why this very well could be 8-10:1 ratios... and maybe along the Maryland coast ratios will be lower, but they could easily be 10:1 out this way.

Dark sky is forecasting 4-7” for next Friday. BOOK IT Seriously though... intrigued by the prospects of the next week or two

That was a hell of a move north. I’ll take 5” (don’t you dare say it)

That’s a solid trend ^^. PLENTY of room to improve with 60 to go. Hope to wake up to good news! Goodnight my friends

Appreciate the insight, as always @psuhoffman. I’ll take a sizable trend in our direction 60 hours out and call it a win. If this season has taught our region anything, it’s that a storm will absolutely not do what models are showing at 60. Plenty of time. Ill be worried if the cmc looks the same at 12z tomorrow

Patiently waiting for @psuhoffman to drop the good news about the CMC’s improved look

We are roughly 60 hours out... correct me if I’m wrong, but 60 hours out from the previous storm, we were potentially expecting feet, not inches. Things went north rather quickly within 60. We don’t want that here. We are close. Not there yet, but things have most certainly trended in our direction. I’d rather OP runs look suppressed with an improving look upstairs conducive of a storm that can amplify / come north, than have a jackpot over our heads this far out. Be calm, my friends. We got this.

Ji won’t be satisfied until the jackpot is in his backyard.

Relax bud. If 12z tomorrow looks suppressed, we can begin to worry a bit. Think about where we were 24-36 hours ago.

Idk about that man. You’re in a prime spot for this one.

Agreed that the look at h5/500 actually improved quite a bit, despite the track further SE on the OP run. Have a feeling by the time this is all said and done, the 95 corridor will be the place to be. Will likely go down to my brothers in ellicott city for this one. PS - maybe Richmond won’t be disappointed after all

Sounds about right. Exactly why I dislike the model. Oh? It’s going to snow between 0-10”?! Tell me more SREF

SREF is another one of those “it’s good to have on our side but don’t rely on it” models. Doesn’t hurt, but it doesn’t excite me. SREF’s are always snowy it seems. Gimme that 0z NAM’ing all day!!

Nope.