jayyy
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Everything posted by jayyy
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Pretty damn solid for an EPS mean 24 out. Let’s do this! Hope to see things juice back up a bit at 6z, but a nice 3-6” event sounds great
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Agree. Think the dc to Baltimore corridor and points in between are in for the goods here. Won’t be a foot, but it’ll be a great Sunday morning and afternoon.
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Apologize for the size of the attachment. 24 hr max precip - latest SREF. Plops a 1.5-.75 max on Baltimore 12 hr max is pretty wild too .75+ for much of the area What a battle between the much wetter mesos and drier ensembles
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models must have been meh based on the banter fest going on
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Correct me if I’m wrong, @MillvilleWx (I really appreciate all of your insight) this storm is the perfect type to play to the biases of the GFS. It doesn’t really do well historically with quick hitting meso dependent storms that track through the far SE portion of the CWA. Feel like the NAM/RGEM etc and Mesos would be much more reliable inside 48 over an ensemble.
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Looks like they solidified that 4-6” stripe. Mostly unchanged.
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I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I’m impressed by how the ICON handled the evolution of this from the get.
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Filthy. Plain filthy. Let’s GO!!!!
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Yeah, I don’t. Unless reporting snow totals and OBS. during a storm bothers you. anyway.... let’s move on.
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NAM looks like a strung out POS versus 12z and 18z
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Just trying to protect that H2snOw bubble!
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We northern folk have had pretty good luck up our way, just saying
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Careful what you wish for m’dude
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Woof. HoCo MoCo death band incoming!?
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Probably the best map they’ve made within 48 hours all season. Suspect they will add a 6-8 inch stripe in Maryland at some point between now and Saturday, but since its so difficult to nail down specifics in these types of banding dependent storms, this is a good, safe call.
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Sounds like this guy wrote up CWG’s forecast and wants answers.
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Only when Richmond is disappointed
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Bastards! hahaha
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That’s... not how that works. At all. You have that backwards. If it’s a super wet, dense snow, snowfall to QPF ratios are lower lol Cold temps + powder snow = higher ratios. Doubt we see powder. 12.1 for our latitude seems reasonable.
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30:1 ratios!? Sure. Same bro.
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That’s why you don’t use those maps to make any sort of meaningful forecast prediction. They are clown maps for a reason.
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3-5” as a baseline area wide is a great call. Zero shot it has any idea about meso/banding details however. @MillvilleWx and @csnavywx explained it best, but we’re going to have some big heartbreak awfully close by to the jackpot zones with this setup. 10” in one location could mean 4-5” a few miles down the road
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Looking better and better for us as the hours go on
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Who is we, Kimosabe?
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Hell no. I’m good on all that. RGEM is cursed until further notice
