jayyy

Lol using the gfs now Using an Ensemble model when it’s gonna snow within hours is silly - especially during a banding dependent storm

Most certainly cold enough to start as snow out there.

See bobs reply for more info. Sorry. Long, long day today.

No.

@losetoa6 nice convection popping near that SLP. I’m liking what I’m seeing. Radar, to me, looks juicy. Plenty more to the west.

I’m definitely optimistic. Seen this song and dance before in this neck of the woods. I’m getting ready for 2-4” of the good stuff and will be delighted if we see more. I have no doubt someone will see 6” . Potentials there no doubt. Think people are putting way too much stock into snow maps tbh.

So Baltimore and Howard county get 0.6” qpf and 2” of snow? Makes sense.

Nice swath of heavy snow in western NC and NW SC. thunderstorms being reported in TN. Great sign.

I missed you man.

#juicy

You don’t say..... Luckily for you, that’s been the trend all season. Storms end up 50-75 miles NW of what’s progged day before.

Temp down to 36.5 already up here in N Frederick county. Bodes well I’d say

0.25” of QPF will give you the same amount of snow as coasties who see half an inch of liquid. Think you’ll be alright for 2-3” sir.

Think you guys are prime for 3-5 from Montgomery to Howard to Baltimore counties. I agree - current OBS look better (Temps & radar) than models depicted at this point.

I’m at the Mount in Emmitsburg to drop my son off at school - there is about 2-3” in snowcover remaining in spots that didn’t get much sun.... but also none in spots that do. Wild. Nearly 30” gone in 5’ish days. Going to be great to get another fresh coating

At this point, comparing current OBS to models is definitely the best tool we have to get an idea of how this will go and is much more productive than the live and die by each kuchera snow map approach some take. Know your climo folks! If you live on the water, you’re probably not seeing more snow than PSU or mappy in a marginal storm. That’s just.... the reality we live in here in our CWA

Our perspectives are likely geared toward the way our my BYs perform in this type of setup. Bob and I tend to do decently here, being away from the bay and urban heat island. A defined SLP of this strength tracking where it is 9 times out of 10 is giving areas along and NW of I-95 3-5”. Heavy snow at sunrise through noon? It’s sticking.

Actually one of the more reasonable maps I’ve seen. This is a Classic 2-5” type event with lollipop 6-7” for our area. Buckle up and enjoy my friends

What señor chill said.

Or... wait for it... a team of meteorologists who work for NWS didn’t hug trends on kuchera run snow maps and used a combination of knowledge of the setup, the overall track, and all of the other factors we discuss daily in here to make an informed decision on a forecast that’s meant to inform the public of what could be coming. If they downplayed this as a 1-3 event and we saw 6+“ in 6-10 hours, it would catch a ton of people off guard and cause harm. Let’s remember the actual point of warnings issued by LWX or any other NWS office.

100%. I actually think my brother down in Howard county will do better than me up here in Carroll county, but I don’t see places in SoMD doing better in a marginal event. Guess you never know though.

On grass and car tops? Probably all of it. On roads? Probably not much.

YUP!

Warnings and advisories issued. Watches remain up in areas of uncertainty it appears... Warnings: 3-6 Nova/dc through central MD 4-7 northern tier (Frederick Co on East - they included Baltimore city and all of Baltimore county) 5-10 for BR mountains WWA’s Winchester - Hagerstown for 2-4 Calvert/St. Mary's for 2-5

Definitely. 95 special looking a little more likely than at this point yesterday. The fat lady hasn’t sung yet! WINTER STORM Warnings just posted btw