jayyy

Not so fast says SPC. Heavy snow threat analysis includes bristow

For sure. No model had all snow for dc / Baltimore - especially to start. However, it did have the changeover happen rather quickly, so it’ll be interesting to see how this unfolds in the next hour or two

SLP taking it’s sweet time getting it’s act together off the SC coast. Actually looks a bit more strung out than it did an hour or two ago on SPC meso analysis. Still at 1008 mb. Two areas of increased lift emerging just off the coasts of OCMD and OBX

The race between heavy precip and the column cooling has commenced. All snow reports literally JUST to my W and N so I expect this mix nonsense to be a thing of the past shortly

You’re right. Fall line actually isn’t far very NW of either metro. Baltimore appears like it could flip over ever so slightly earlier but not by much once DC gets in on that heavy precip in VA

Nice! You guys are down to 39? Someone reported 45 around 1 am. Great to hear temps are dropping quickly.

Initial p-type and OBS indicate places north of I-70 will start as snow. Downtown Baltimore should briefly begin as rain before the changeover. DC may need a few hours, however. Much warmer there than BAL

LOL! 1” in central MD. Crazy. I’m gonna go out on a limb and say that doesn’t verify. It does put a nice pink blob over my house though. Could be signaling 95 will be caught between bands

Juicy

Snow creeping up on front royal and Winchester. Snow showers being reported in Romney WV

Don’t think westward extend of the precip will be a problem for our area. Precip spans from Ohio to the Atlantic Ocean and heading NNE. Looks like a nice wall of precip is headed our way. Nice batch of precip out west in WV. Now we hope for that magic to happen at 700mb as that SLP cranks up and passes our latitude

23.5” on the season, including two 10+“ storms here in union bridge, MD. Fingers crossed we add some more today

2 things... aren’t areas to your SW higher elevation? They typically flip before you if I’m not mistaken. We don’t have that type of climo here further up north. Also... this radar is pretty spot on it appears. If you don’t flip to snow within 30 mins, I’d be shocked. You’re literally in a rain bubble. My buddy in Hollins right outside Roanoke city limits is seeing heavy snow

Love the positivity @Jebman

My buddy in NW Roanoke is currently reporting SN+. Says there are literal meatballs falling from the sky. Temp was in the mid 40s there today and he said it took mere minutes for the snow to begin sticking to colder surfaces. Overall current OBS look good and the precip shield is both intensifying and coming right at us. I honestly see a Northerly movement to the swath of precip in NC SC and VA more than anything else. Also appears in the final frames of the latest radar loop that the two distinct areas of precip that were in VA/GA/Carolinas versus TN/AL/MS are trying to merge together as the SLP off the shores of GA/SC begins to get its act together. Pressure falls beginning to accelerate off the coast and the low SHOULD take a NNE track from here

Major ice storm potentially heading our way into Friday. I wouldn’t mind a nice snow thump to ice to dry slot to build a base for the next 2-4 weeks 18z gfs and 0z euro both show nasty storms in very different ways. Like with the storm we’re about to deal with today, I’d wait until the previous storm has exited the Atlantic coast before taking models so seriously. They are, once again, lost until they’ve got a better grasp of the environment Thursday’s storm will be forming in. bet 0z tomorrow or 6z Tuesday starts the trend in our direction.

Chillll my dude. Returns literally just hit your area. It’ll be precipitating within the hour. Yes, climo says you won’t fair as well as Baltimore, but a decent # of models show some good snow into your area. enjoy.

That I can attest to. Grew up 30 miles due north of NYC. There were nights we’d get 10-15 degrees colder than Manhattan. Didn’t think Baltimore/DC had such a big UHI effect. Much smaller cities. Wild.

How is that possible

Can’t wait for the show. Precip def moving NNE and not E in our direction. Going to be a fun morning commute

Bring it! No sign the convection in TN or in the Carolinas / Florida is affecting the radar up north. No doubt heavy precipitation makes its way here.

Crazy. It’s 6 degrees colder in east HoCo (south of 70) and 8+ degrees colder up north (Carroll, north Baltimore, Frederick counties) . What a difference.

Rain, shmain... all snow event coming right up!

Gonna Jeb tomorrow in your honor sir.

LWX going with snow likely - 70% Thursday and Thursday night already. Honk.