jayyy

Pretty sure it’s over my house heading your way momentarily. Flakes were enormous a minute ago and there’s now sleet mixing in.

What exactly is the point of a storm discussion and observation thread then? We can all look at the radar or weather station OBS and figure out it’s snowing hard or the temperature at any given location if we wanted to, no? Pretty sure I can look at a radar and see that CLskins is getting dumped on right now - yet I still appreciate reading his OBS in here to confirm what’s potentially coming my way from N VA. All I know is that based on the posts I’ve read over the past weeks, we clearly REALLY need a region-wide 6”+ type storm to go down before winter closes out. The animosity over lack of snow is real and kind of toxic. anyway — current OBS 30 degrees - SN++ 2.5”

Careful buddy. Don’t want to anger some in the dc crew. #overperformer

It matters to everybody tracking the rain/snow line. Sorry buddy. This is the wrong hobby for you if you get that angry over a radar observation. Get over it.

Thankfully I’m off today and don’t have to venture out on the roads. Safe travels if you have to go out there

Mix line not very far from downtown DC. Looks like DCA may be mixing.

We’ve got an over performer on our hands ladies and germs. Heavy snow 29 degrees 1” on the board - radar looks pretty damn good

It nailed last weeks storm along side the NAM. Had the mid level warm nose and 1-2” amounts along the 95 corridor and nailed the jack zone. Now is really the only time frame I’d give the RGEM any credibility. Certainly doesn’t hurt to have it being so consistent and on your side. Only thing I typically do is cut snow/precip amounts in half. Imagine it scores a coup here?

Those are usually the storms that pan out for us, right!? (I kid. Just being blindly optimistic) Feel like that used to happen fairly frequently back in the day though. Euro and long range GFS would sniff out a threat in the 7-10 day range, lose it, then get it back day in the 4-5 day timeframe. Maybe we get lucky and score 2 little events this week

This is what I was referring to @Ji . Yeah, we’re gonna torch for a few days around March 1st. And we may very well see 4-8” 2 days before. Cold air in place with a ton of warm air down south = a dynamic environment for a juicy Gulf storm. Let’s roll with it. Keep our expectations realistic, and I think we’ll be pleasantly surprised come end of March.

Love me a sneaky little snowstorm! 3k verbatim would be a nice hit in a very short perios Plus… it seems that whenever LWX goes with advisories for 1-3, we over perform. Watch I-95 get 2-3” and 3-5 in the NW zones now lol

Qpf hates Leesburg Thurmont with another 6-10” lol. My son is already sick of the snow up at the mount. Clearly he doesn’t follow in his pops footsteps.

Boo ya! 2-3 sounds swell. Im expecting 1”. Anything more is great. Invites open for @North Balti Zen - I’ll have the wife invite a friend.

It ain’t over for sure! Actually think this depicted storm will be our second to last shot at a biggie. There will likely be another shot at a big storm after the pattern reloads in mid March (The last hurrah). Some long range guidance is hinting at another attempt at high latitude blocking around the March 14th timeframe. Will it be tough? Yep. Will it be 40-50, maybe even touch 60 some days over the next 4-6 weeks? Yep. But there’s plenty of evidence that we will have at least 2 more windows of opportunity - including a Miller A meeting a nicely timed cold shot mid month. I don’t see anything in the EPS GEFS or EC that screams that the kiss of death for winter is upon us. Not even close.

Seriously? We can already see that this weeks warm up, and likely the one after that will be short lived and could very well have snow chances on either side of them. Winter is not over. Not here, and not for your area either, IMO. Some of our best all time snows have occurred during volatile patterns. We always don’t need a -NAO/-AO/-EPO/+PNA pattern to get a biggie - or any snowstorm for that matter. In fact, this area does just fine in a neutral, and even slightly positive NAO state. March will come in like a lion for many of us in this forum. 80s in Florida and over the gulf, meet arctic air. Will there be some days in the 40s and 50s? Yes. 100%. There’s nothing to lock in deep arctic air long term. However, There will be plenty of cold shots coming into the plains/northeast, and plenty of systems developing and tracking through an active SJS. We will need a few pieces to fall into place - timing of cold air and a storm - SE ridge relaxing a bit and a temporary neutral or PNA , but that’s perfectly okay. I know @psuhoffman @Bob Chill and @clskinsfan could probably list off a good number of second half of season storms that occurred during less than ideal patterns ie: +NAO +AO patterns. I actually that think our area’s propensity to be within 50-100 miles of the transition zone will pay off big time in the next few weeks. Stay strong, @Ji I know it’s been a tough winter. Your latitude has been extremely unlucky for a multitude of reasons. But don’t fret. We’ve got this. Channel your inner @WinterWxLuvr and get on the train!!!

Que @ravensrule

All in for our latitude. Think we see 2-5” Monday and a banger next weekend.

? What is your beef. PS- My wife has friends. Just saying.

Dover has been the Capitol of backend snowfall all winter long. They miss the main storm and then bands from the ULL seem to always hit them. Have had snow showers and flurries falling up here throughout the day with these meandering precip blobs / bands. Made for a lovely day and kept temps down. 0.3” of new snow since last night.

Oh wow. Woke up to a nice surprise this morning! Fresh snow, snow falling and a gorgeous layer of ice underneath it Snowpack holding at 6”

Thank you for this. Just found out I’m at precisely 644 feet. Hope you faired well up your way earlier!

Think you actually could flip to snow if a nice slug of precip makes it way in. That warm layer aloft is weak sauce now that the jet has long exited the area and could easily be overcome if precip doesn’t get torn apart by the apps

Yep. Seasonal averages are just that… averages. I know every storm is different, but there is something to be said about it “snowing where it wants to snow” during a particular season. This season happens to be for the Northern mid Atlantic and southern New England. South/Central PA over to NJ, the greater NYC metro and coastal New England. Aka Miller B city. Up here in Northern MD, as well as extreme N VA and N WV, we got extremely lucky to get in on the southern axis of that jackpot area all season long. I remember plenty of winters in the early 2010’s where all it wanted was to snow along 95 and points east. NYC LI coastal NJ and southern New England (Boston) kept getting hammered while areas 30-50 miles NW of nyc got fringed regularly. As for the metros this year… that’s part luck of the draw, part each storm missing something key like a sufficient west coast ridge, a negatively tilted trough, a bad 850 low track, a nice HP in place up north, etc. Because of this, we had no area-wide (coast to the mountains) major snowfalls. Every single storm seemed like a nail biter as far as temps were concerned. As somebody mentioned the other day, it wasn’t a cold or warm winter. Our “cold air” was quite average and it showed when it came to storm time. We did see a few ideal setups and DC/BAL just happened to end up 30 miles on the wrong side of the tracks. Not exactly sure if it’s the elephant in the room moving the fall line farther NW, or just a series of seasons where NW areas got lucky. Who knows, perhaps next year ends up being a blockbuster season for the coast and starts a new trend in the opposite direction.

Dang! Have me beat by 3.5”! That extra 400 feet doe