jayyy

Looking at radar loops from past 4-6 hours, it’s cool to see the train of moisture spanning from east Texas to VA. The western edge of that precip in E TX hasn’t moved all that much since midnight. 12 am 4AM

Some halfway decent returns embedded in the initial slug of moisture entering the area. Currently NW of DC

Curious to see what the more levelheaded GFS has to say. Probably 2-4” like it’s been showing for several runs now.

WWAs are 2-3” for dc / Baltimore metros and 2-4” for colder areas like Carroll county and the northern tier Point click forecast has 3-6” for parts of Howard county which is interesting lol

Tend to agree. Some precip being eaten up by the mountains I think. But if I’m not mistaken, models like the NAM are enhancing precip again during part 2 of this storm when the LP pops to the coast. NWS has snow likely from 4pm today through 1pm Tuesday, which makes me think they’re also thinking additional precip blossoms over us. Cause I don’t see how the initial slug of moisture to our SW takes that long to move through the area otherwise. The WWA mentions a lull after round 1 before snow picks back up late afternoon through tonight.

The stars to align and unicorns to fart - per usual. We need ridging to improve out west and more digging on our end to force that coastal to pop and develop as far south as possible. That at least gives us a shot at seeing some respectable snow before SNE gets theirs. Issue is… it’s a NS driven event, which often trend the opposite direction for obvious reasons. We know how things typically go when we’re rooting for storms to develop further south than progged at day 4. It’s not over yet, still time before Friday.. but less confident in a snowier last min trend with this wave versus the one we’re seeing today due to the setup. It’s still possible I suppose… but this isn’t a simple overrunning event that we need to nudge N and be more amped. Would need to see some pretty drastic improvements by 0z tonight into tomorrow to believe it’s remotely doable.

Would love to see the GFS and HRRR show something similar to buy into the 6-7” totals for I-95 & 66 but either way, a respectable 2-4” forum wide event with 5” lollies seems like a lock at this point. Mid Atlantic country, let’s ride!

A cold 22 degrees with light snow Column = moist Should be a fun drive down to HoCo this morning.

It’s showed this for consecutive runs.. but it’s also the 12k NAM. Assume the 3k is drier; but that’s also still the NAM lol.

HoCo bullseye .

The ascent under the right entrance of the jet is impressive. Radar looks tasty as a result. Let’s get it! .

Keep that fucking goose outta here. Things trended better once it died a quick death .

Warning for 2-4” over 12 hours? Eh. Idk about that. Perhaps for some localized areas but that’s a tough call to make.

NAMd with 6+. Even if I get half, I’m happy. .

Curious how the NAM GFS will look at 0z

If there’s anything we do well (which isn’t very much) it’s overrunning coming from our SW with cold air in place. We don’t typically overperform but this is one of the few types of events where it’s possible with that initial part

HoCo jackpot. Knewwww it .

Show us that snow porn!

You know what they say about when it snows it Tennessee!

Jeb disco: a storm will park off the coast near ocean city and crawl at a staggered 0.0001 mph pace to the NE, dumping 4 feet of snow over a 10 day period.

NWS forecast for Columbia MD. Wintry week ahead! Finally.

I have lived in the Hudson valley in NY, buffalo, central PA and now here since 2007. I’ve been active in all of those subforums over the years. This is hands down the best subforum on AmericanWX. We have the best analysis / discussions without a doubt and while we’re all snow weenies / psychopaths in our own right, there’s no community I’d rather be a part of.

Hahaha not quite!