jayyy
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Everything posted by jayyy
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Tony Pann posted something… interesting “No Hurricanes have made landfall in the US so far this season. And only one Tropical Storm (Chantal). Over the last 20 years, there have been 5 years with no Hurricanes making landfall: 2006, 2009, 2010, 2013, 2015. The average winter snowfall for Baltimore in the following winter: 35" Obviously this could be correlation and not causation but it’s an interesting factoid.
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Snow falling at work in Columbia, albeit super light
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You peep the long range thread? Obviously taken with a minuscule grain of salt but that was one of the most weenie gfs runs we’ve had in a long time
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Incase anybody needs to hear this… DO NOT set this as your bar lol
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Obviously the chance of a complete short term model bust is like 0.1%, but curious if anybody who’s better at reading maps sees anything of note when comparing what models show to current 500mb/h5 obs. Particularly in regards to the ULL
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To be fair, it almost always spits out heavy accumulations. We just happened to get them that time [emoji23]
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19 degreed, heavy sun, roads brined.. go time [emoji23]
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People not posting clown maps 150+ hours out would go a long way.
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If you listen closely enough you can hear all of the nyc weenies cliff diving
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Jesus Christ. It’s going to be in Florida by Thursday
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It’s going to be souther. Reverse voodoo. NAM goes south and the others come north
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That’s true. We used to see positive busts back then. Happened ALL the time when I lived in New York. Problem is models have gotten way better over the past 14 years, so the likelihood is a lot lower. That being said… it’s not impossible.
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Less confluence though. Looked pretty good at the surface when it stopped running
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Alright guys… long range NAM time [emoji849]
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Yessir. Tough suite tonight overall but glad to see the euro improve under the hood vs 18z. It’s in its wheelhouse right now and as PSU pointed out, it schooled most other guidance wrt today’s storm at this range. Doesn’t mean this can’t still fail, but at least the bleeding stopped. By tomorrow night the storm will be over the CONUS, so hopefully things become clearer (and snowier) by tomorrow’s 00z runs
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Get some sleep brother. We’ll analyze some more tomorrow.
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If you listen closely enough you can still hear people sliding off greased poles
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Richmond is only like 2 hrs and 15 mins from Baltimore… yikes
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Hi res models or bust [emoji12] I’ll be interested to see how the euro looks at 12z
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Fellas… I know we dick around in here way more than we probably should, but let’s keep the squabbling to a minimum.
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Disagree there. The mean is clearly NW of 18z. DC and Baltimore see a few more inches of snow and the purples make it further north in Jersey. Pretty clear there. The vort is also more consolidated leading in if I’m seeing that correctly.
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I mean it did cut his snow by like 40%. But if we’re solely basing our comparison on the resulting clown maps… it’s my opinion that it’s not a massive difference when you zoom out and look at the whole region. Maximum area in VA is nearly the same. Total snowfall in Baltimore is the same. The EPS is better and QPF bumped. That being said.. I’d love to see things move further in our direction by tomorrow’s 12z and 0z runs.. Hoping we things trend back toward a more consolidated vort and a full phase
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Precisely my point. I mean don’t get me wrong.. I’m skeptical as hell about the euro’s outcome given seasonal trends, but it’s also THE model people shouldn’t ignore, especially in its bread and butter range. Perhaps I’m wishcasting. If it caves tomorrow, we’re likely cooked.. but for now.. not all hope is lost for at least some snow out of this.
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It’s also very much in its wheelhouse 4 days out. NAM surely isn’t… but it shows a similar progression at h5 between hours 48-72. Don’t get me wrong… I’m discouraged by the fact that the Canadian gfs and ukie were dog shit… but 2/3 of those models kinda suck
