nchighcountrywx

GSP Morning AFD Discussion 01/04/24 300am The aforementioned low-level jet will establish a pronounced warm nose across the area before the column fully saturates with the warm nose strongest across eastern portions of the area. Wetbulbing via saturation of the dry airmass will help establish an in-situ wedge of cold air east of the mountains. Sub-freezing wetbulb temperatures will be common at precipitation onset from the mountains through the North Carolina foothills and Piedmont, especially deeper into the wedge along and north of I-40. Thus, a mixed bag of precipitation types is expected Friday night into Saturday morning. A brief period of snow is expected across the mountains before the strengthening warm nose switches things over to sleet and then freezing rain. Farther east, in the in-situ wedge, freezing rain will be the predominate precipitation type with a brief period of sleet possible across the northern foothills. Without a sustained source of cold dry air, and given the self limiting process of freezing rain due to latent heat release, all locations will eventually see surface temperatures warm above freezing. This will occur quickest on the edges of the in-situ wedge with the northern foothills and mountains the last to see temperatures rise above freezing late Saturday morning. Pretty much everyone should be seeing a cold rain by noon, if not earlier. The question now turns to how much snow/sleet/ice accumulation can be expected. The quick transition to ice across the mountains will limit snow/sleet totals to 1-2" followed by 0.05-0.2" of ice. In the in-situ wedge, marginal wetbulb temperatures and light winds will lead to modest ice accretion at best with most places on the edge of the wedge seeing a lot of runoff and less freezing of the rain. A few hundreths of an inch of accretion will be possible along I-85 before quickly warming above freezing with roughly 0.1-0.2" along a line from Statesville to Hickory to Rutherfordton and Columbus. Historically, even during in-situ wedge regimes, the foothills immediately against the Blue Ridge escarpment, especially along and north of I-40 tend to hold on to sub-freezing air the longest and have proven to be stubborn to warm. Guidance often struggles to resolve this with the NAM often having the best handle on low-level thermal profiles in wedge airmasses. Thus, more weight was given towards the NAM thermal profiles, which supports a longer duration of freezing rain against the escarpment. In addition to climatological support, probabilistic guidance also paints this area as the location most likely to have the potential to receive warning criteria ice accretion. As such, a winter storm watch has been hoisted from Alexander/Caldwell counties southwest along the escarpment through Henderson and the mountains of Polk county. The highest ice totals are expected to occur in this corridor from Lenoir to Marion to Lake Lure and Hendersonville. Eventually, winter weather advisories will be needed across the surrounding counties where ice accretion is expected. Two limiting factors that could result in less ice would be temperatures warming quicker than currently forecast and the potential for deep convection along the Gulf Coast to inhibit greater inland moisture transport and reduce available QPF. A period of northwest flow snow showers will also be possible along the Tennessee border Saturday night

Alexander-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-Including the cities of Bethlehem, Ellendale, Millersville,Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point, Hendersonville, Fletcher,Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Patterson, Kings Creek,Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls, Jonas Ridge, Morganton,Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Ashford, Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort,Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, Fero, Glenwood,Chimney Rock State Park, and Saluda354 AM EST Thu Jan 4 2024...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGHSATURDAY AFTERNOON...* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleetaccumulations of up to a half inch and ice accumulations of twotenths to one quarter of an inch possible. Isolated areas couldsee ice accumulations up to three tenths of an inch.* WHERE...Portions of piedmont and western North Carolina.* WHEN...From late Friday night through Saturday afternoon.* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

Updated morning decision support briefing from GSP Winter Storm Watch Issued https://www.weather.gov/media/gsp/YouTube/brief.pdf

NCZ033-049-050-180345-/O.NEW.KGSP.WW.Y.0008.231218T1100Z-231219T1100Z/Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss,Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine,and Poplar238 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM ESTTUESDAY...* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6inches. Winds gusting as high as 60 mph.* WHERE...Avery, Yancey and Mitchell Counties.* WHEN...From 6 AM Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday.* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardousconditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Strongwinds could cause tree damage. The cold wind chills as low as5 below zero could result in hypothermia if precautions arenot taken.

Snow #14 inbound for the high country above 5000' so far this winter. Keep counting them.

This is a shot across the bow. Major change in the outlook

This is concerning

Is that trail access site relatively discreet public or is it by private access only. Thanks !

STORM TOTAL QPF HAS FALLEN BELOW AN INCH WITH THIS PACKAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, AND LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NC PIEDMONT. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LONGER DURATION OF RAIN AND GREATER CONVECTIVE COMPONENT DEVELOPING SUNDAY, WE RETAIN 3 TO 5 INCH TOTALS ALONG SOME OF THE NORTHERN ESCARPMENT. WITH MUCH OF THAT DRAINING INTO THE CATAWBA BASIN, ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS COULD DEVELOP IN THE CATAWBA RESERVOIR CHAIN WHICH COULD HAVE LASTING EFFECTS INTO MONDAY

36.7 Mount Mitchell

48 pictures of the historic West Virginia May snow https://m.facebook.com/100069173240160/posts/pcb.544065694575867/?photo_id=544064421242661&mds=%2Fphotos%2Fviewer%2F%3Fphotoset_token%3Dpcb.544065694575867%26photo%3D544064421242661%26profileid%3D100028049062478%26eav%3DAfZE_6yIYjNV_nYHKWmrCSEQw3VSB2iGsWaG6TckBlM19i5lR09aXwSyuhTNW0yBDNY%26paipv%3D0%26source%3D48%26refid%3D52%26ref%3Dcontent_filter%26__tn__%3DEH-R%26cached_data%3Dfalse%26ftid%3D&mdp=1&mdf=1

Snow #14 for the season this morning

Blue Ridge Parkway Wilkes-Alleghaney

High peaks are ready. https://climate.ncsu.edu/m/?id=GRANDFATHR https://nchighpeaks.org/davis/index.html https://tempestwx.com/station/81986/grid

Panovich