
RodneyS
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Mid-Atlantic winter 2020-21 snowfall contest
RodneyS replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
BWI: 6.7 DCA: 4.4 IAD: 7.6 RIC: 8.0 SBY: 5.5 -
October 2020 temperature forecast contest
RodneyS replied to Roger Smith's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 0.2 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.0 0.7 1.8 2.0 1.5 -
September 2020 temperature forecast contest
RodneyS replied to Roger Smith's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.0 1.3 2.0 1.5 0.1 1.2 1.4 3.0 3.6 -
Time for an update. Not much has happened to change the picture during the last two years. In 2019, August 12th had no precipitation at DCA, whereas August 15th had 0.20 inches. This year, August 12th had 0.26, whereas August 15th had 0.21. So the updated 150-year totals for DC, 1871-2020, are: August 12: 43.69 inches total; 21 days with a trace, 55 days with measurable, 12 days with at least an inch, 5 days with 2+ inches. August 15: 12.86 inches total; 16 days with a trace, 49 days with measurable, 5 days with at least an inch, no days with 2+ inches.
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August 2020 temperature forecast contest
RodneyS replied to Roger Smith's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 0.9 1.3 2.2 0.9 0.0 -0.4 1.5 2.7 0.3 -
DCA recorded 28 90-degree-plus days this month, breaking the DC record of 25 set in July 2011. However, the longest streak at 20 days fell one-day short of the 1980 and 1988 record streaks of 21 days. Also, the July 2020 average temperature of 83.9 at DCA fell short of the July 2011 record average monthly temperature of 84.8, as well as the July 2012 average of 84.0.
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July 2020 temperature forecast contest
RodneyS replied to Roger Smith's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.8 2.2 1.2 2.8 -0.8 1.2 3.1 0.7 -0.8 -
Based on the metric I was using, 1917 wasn't quite as cold as this year in DC, with an average maximum temperature of 63.8 during April 14-May 13. However, May 1917 maximums averaged only 68.8, 4th coldest of all time. And the overall average May 1917 temperature was only 59.6, just 0.4 degrees above the all-time coldest DC May, which was 1907.
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In response to a comment on the Capital Weather Gang webpage arguing that we had a normal Spring, I posted this reply at https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/05/13/warm-weather-arrive-abruptly-east-this-week-may-just-be-tease-some: I wouldn't exactly call this Spring normal, particularly for the last 30 days. The maximum temperature at DCA during April 14-May 13 averaged 63.6 degrees, the 6th coldest all-time in DC for that period and the coldest since 1882, which averaged 62.2. The coldest all-time was 1875, which averaged 60.8; and the warmest was 1985, which averaged 79.0.
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April 2020 at DCA averaged 55.3 degrees -- the same as the 1871-2019 historical average. However, precipitation at 6.30 inches was double the DC April historical average of 3.15 inches. In fact, it was the 7th rainiest April in DC history, with the rainiest being 9.13 inches in 1889.
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May 2020 temperature forecast contest
RodneyS replied to Roger Smith's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -1.7 -1.7 -1.2 -2.4 -0.3 1.6 3.0 3.4 1.4 -
I just posted this on the Capital Weather Gang webpage, in response to Ian Livingston's article at https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/04/28/pm-update-some-more-showers-tonight-much-warmer-wednesday Today marked the 15th consecutive day at DCA without a 70+ degree reading. The only other April 14-28 period where that happened in DC weather history was 1875. However, as Ian notes, the current run appears over, as tomorrow is forecast to be at least 70. In 1875, the run ended one day later, on April 30th, with a reading of 72. Still, there is a big difference between these two Aprils. April 1875 averaged only 48.0 degrees, the second coldest April in DC history, whereas this April has averaged 54.8 so far, only slightly below the 1871-2019 historical April average of 55.3. By the way, 1874 was the coldest April in DC history, at 47.1, and the only April day that reached 70+ that year was the 15th, at 72 degrees.
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April 2020 temperature forecast contest
RodneyS replied to Roger Smith's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.8 1.5 1.2 0.7 2.8 4.5 -0.2 -0.2 -1.9 -
Mid-Atlantic winter 2019-20 snowfall contest
RodneyS replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
If anyone had gone with zeroes across the board, they would finished second, with a 6.8 inch departure, compared to Prestige's 3.6. Congratulations to him for leading wire-to-wire. I'm afraid that I am not available to run any contests, but look forward to participating in this contest again next season. -
Eight years ago today, I posted on this thread -- http://www.americanw...h-on-record-dca: "The final numbers for the 2011/12 astronomical and composite winters are 45.9 and 45.6 degrees, respectively. Thus, the record for the warmest astronomical winter was broken by 2.2 degrees and the record for the warmest composite winter was broken by 1.6 degrees. When the astronomical winter warm record was last broken (in 1989-90), it was only by 0.2 degrees, and when the composite winter warm record was last broken (in 2001-02), it was only by 0.9 degrees." This season, the astronomical winter (December 21-March 20, on average) averaged 45.5 at DCA , and so it fell only 0.4 degrees short of 2011/12. And the composite winter (December 1-March 20, on average) averaged 44.6 at DCA, and so it fell 1.0 degree short of 2011/12. Both averages are good enough for second warmest in DC history.
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Mid-Atlantic winter 2019-20 snowfall contest
RodneyS replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Congratulations to you and the rest of the Top Five, as there was a big gap between the Top Five and the rest of the field. -
Mid-Atlantic winter 2019-20 snowfall contest
RodneyS replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Barring a Palm Sunday 1942 type of event -- https://instaweatherinsights.wordpress.com/2007/03/28/palm-sunday-snowstorm-of-1942 -- it appears that only Dr. Dews was conservative enough (for Richmond) to nail the snow total at any of the four locations. Even our 99% certain winner, Prestige Worldwide, went too high at each location. -
February 2020 averaged 43.8 degrees at DCA, with the meteorological winter there at 42.8 degrees, each 7th on the all-time DC list, although February 1984 also averaged 43.8.
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March 2020 Temperature Forecast Contest
RodneyS replied to Roger Smith's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
DCA_NYC_BOS __ ORD_ATL_IAH ___ DEN_PHX_SEA 4.6 3.7 4.0 4.2 2.2 3.0 2.6 1.8 0.0 -
Recent January DCA Temperatures Appear Inconsistent with 1981-2010 Normals
RodneyS replied to RodneyS's topic in Mid Atlantic
I have now done some additional analysis that shows that in several other eastern cities January temperatures during the most recent 30 years have peaked on or about January 13th and bottomed on or about January 21st: Raleigh-Durham: 46.9 vs 37.7 degrees Richmond: 43.6 vs 34.0 degrees Philadelphia: 38.4 vs 29.3 degrees New York: 37.3 vs 28.9 degrees Boston: 34.1 vs 26.2 degrees Portland: 26.4 vs 19.5 degrees -
February 2020 temperature forecast contest
RodneyS replied to Roger Smith's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 4.6 4.2 4.0 2.7 3.8 3.4 -2.5 -1.7 0.8 -
Winter 2019-2020 Idea
RodneyS replied to donsutherland1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I don' t know about the deep low on March 1-2, 1914, but DC recorded only a trace of snow on each of those days. However, it recorded 0.3 inches on March 5th, 4.0 on March 6th, 0.7 on March 7th, 5.3 on March 11th, 5.2 on March 20th, and 3.8 on March 22nd. What is remarkable is how similar that winter was to 1959-60 in terms of no measurable snow falling until February 13th, and then way above average after that. This year, DCA has recorded on a percentage basis infinitely more snow so far than those two seasons: 0.6 inches divided by zero.