RodneyS

Okay, so I'll list your current guess for DCA as 2.5 inches.

@Scarlet Pimpernel Does that mean that your actual DCA guess is zero?

Thanks.

@IronTyDp you have a tiebreaker for LYH or SBY?

Today reached 84 at DCA, the warmest temperature ever in DC from November 5th to February 24th. February 25, 1930 also reached 84, and the first day in a calendar year to exceed that was March 8, 2000, which reached 85.

You omitted RIC.

Your point is well-taken. I just did an analysis that shows that the DCA October 2024 average maximum of 73.0 (3.6 degrees above the 1991-2020 normal) tied for the 8th warmest in DC history. On the other hand, the DCA October 2024 average minimum of 53.0 (0.8 degrees above the 1991-2020 normal) tied for the 27th warmest in DC history. So, in contrast to many recent months over many recent years, the average maximum was much further above the recent normal than the average minimum was. As a personal observation, when you couple the DCA October 2024 maximum range of 60 to 83 degrees and the minimum range of 44 to 67 degrees with only 1.48 inches of precipitation (all of which fell on the first two days of the month), a case can be made that October 2024 was the best month in DC history for sunny and pleasant weather.

Your tiebreaker could be the key to victory . . . but not necessarily your victory.

I have rounded up your forecasts for DCA, IAD, and RIC to 2.4, 2.8, and 2.3, respectively. If you want them rounded down, let me know. Note to everyone: Forecasting snow to the nearest 1/100th of an inch does not make any sense because official statistics are kept only to the nearest 1/10th of an inch.

It's time for the 11th annual Mid-Atlantic snowfall contest! First, thanks to @Roger Smith for pointing out that last year's contest, which was billed as the 9th one, was actually the 10th, as Roger unearthed records of the first one, which occurred during the 2014-15 snow season, and was won by @nw baltimore wx. So he has been added below to the list of previous winners, including last year's winner @Kmlwx Second, those who participated last year will recollect the consensus that a Strong El Nino was going to end the Mid-Atlantic snow drought, but that did not happen. So, it appears that snow lovers in our region will have to put their faith in a Weak La Nina this snow season. That may not sound too promising, but perhaps the consensus will be wrong again. Also, I note that we are nearing a solar maximum, which just maybe will somehow, some way upset the apple cart and bring ample snowfall to the Mid-Atlantic. In any event, the focus of this contest is forecasting the total snow that will fall during the 2024-25 snow season at BWI International (BWI), Reagan National (DCA), Dulles International (IAD), and Richmond International Airport (RIC). In the event a tiebreaker is required (that happened 6 years ago), please choose one of the following two airports: Salisbury, MD (SBY) or Lynchburg, VA (LYH). Choose only one. Please note that you are forecasting the total snowfall for the entire snow season (NOT just Dec/Jan/Feb) to the nearest one-tenth of an inch. Generally, snow does not fall after early April at any of these airports, and so the contest is usually finalized by early to mid-April. The winner will be the entrant who has the lowest combined absolute value departure for all four airports. For example, if you forecast: BWI: 0.0" DCA: 0.0" IAD: 0.0" RIC: 10.0" And the actual seasonal totals turn out to be: BWI: 2.5" DCA: 2.5" IAD: 2.5" RIC: 2.5" Your absolute value departures would be: BWI: 2.5 DCA: 2.5 IAD: 2.5 RIC: 7.5 Thus, your total departure would be 15.0. Please use the following format when posting your forecast, in this order: BWI: DCA: IAD: RIC: Tiebreaker (SBY or LYH): The deadline for entries is Sunday, December 1, at 11:59pm. You are welcome to update your forecast at any time up to the deadline. However, please do not edit your original post -- either submit a new post or send me a private message. If there's any accumulating snow before the deadline, please include that in your forecast as well. I think the best approach is to submit your forecast in advance of the deadline and update if necessary, just in case you get tied up on December 1st, when the contest will lock -- no late entries will be accepted. The winner gets an E-trophy made of snow and an induction into the Hall of Fame with the previous winners: 2014-15: @nw baltimore wx@S@S@Shadowzone 2015-16: @Shadowzone@Stormpchadowzone 2016-17: @StormpcStormpchadowzone 2017-18: @olafminesaw@Storm @olafminesaw 2018-19: @olafminesaw (tiebreaker win against @Stormpc) @Stormpc 2019-20: @Prestige Worldwide 2020-21: @NorthArlington101 2021-22: @IUsedToHateCold 2022-23: @LittleVillageWx 2023-24: @Kmlwx Everyone is encouraged to play, including lurkers, new members, and people outside the region. Good luck everyone!

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.1 1.4 1.3 2.9 2.0 2.5 -0.3 -1.5 0.6

October 2024 averaged 63.0 degrees at DCA -- 2.2 degrees above the 1991-2020 normal and tied for the 15th warmest October in DC history. January-October 2024 averaged 64.5 at DCA, 2nd warmest in DC history, behind 2012 (64.7).

Correction: September 2024 averaged 72.5 degrees at DCA -- 0.1 above the 1991-2020 normal and the 36th warmest September in DC history. (January-September 2024 still averaged 64.7 at DCA, 2nd warmest in DC history, behind 2012 (65.1).)

September 2024 averaged 72.6 degrees at DCA -- 0.2 above the 1991-2020 normal and tied with 1965, 1983, and 2017 for the 32nd warmest September in DC history. January-September 2024 averaged 64.7 at DCA, 2nd warmest in DC history, behind 2012 (65.1).

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 0.3 1.5 1.5 2.5 -0.1 2.8 4.2 2.8 -0.3