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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    That BAM posting was the misleading post of the century. That’s the change in anomaly from the prior EPS run. The actually anomaly shown by the EPS in that period is still entirely below normal in the east
  2. SnowGoose69
    That was the misleading map of the day as it was the change from the prior day EPS for the same time. The anomalies are still below normal in the east
  3. SnowGoose69
    This is more or less what occurred last year but on a severe scale. The trip through 7 was so short that by this stage we already were seeing the models at Day 14-16 go warmer as the wave went back into 3 or 4 within 2 weeks. This is a longer trip through 7 and might re emerge into 6 which isn’t quite as terrible
  4. SnowGoose69
    It’s only an Op run but at 90 hours on the 06z Euro you can really see what I was concerned about yesterday. That thing looks like it’s about to get grinded up. Not due to confluence but just the general setup is likely not going to enable this to have the shortwave energy or WAA to blast a snow shield way out ahead of it before everyone sees their winds go southerly. Someone in the MA forum posted the idea as well that he would rather see this thing at this stage be more dynamic because even though it’ll guarantee more areas flip over it should produce more WAA snow in advance in such a setup
  5. SnowGoose69
    The south winds are a big problem. That isn’t always the case because sometimes you can have a high in this location and an approaching system from the same area but the system is weaker and hence the gradient is light. In mid to late January we could survive on a 5-7kt south flow and snow for awhile but not on a 15-25kt one.
  6. SnowGoose69
    12/15/03 was similar to 11/2018. It came straight up from the south or south southwest
  7. SnowGoose69
    The upper ceiling for the metro on events like this is usually 6-7 inches and that accounts for a small percentage of them. Most fall between 1-4
  8. SnowGoose69
    I have a pretty broad termination for SWFE. I more or less would consider this to be one. I’ve seen people call events like 12/5/02 SWFEs though and to me that is extending it too far.
  9. SnowGoose69
    It did brief but the MJO immediately went back to 3-4-5 and once we were within 7-10 days of the pattern change the 11-16 started showing signs of it ending...that could happen again here too but it won't be as fast. I would not be surprised though if by 2/5-2/10 the MJO re-emerges into 3-4-5 and this is only a 2-3 week change.
  10. SnowGoose69
    I warned people this morning that if the Thursday system ends up stronger and bombs out too much off Canada there is a possibility this weekend system could get meat grinded and shredded.
  11. SnowGoose69
    The system also approached from the S-SW. Overrunning events that do that here are always snowier than ones which do not. The ideal setup is the high centered right around Portland Maine or slightly NE of that with a system coming from as much a southerly direction as possible. Anything that comes more from the west or southwest the isentropic upglide is not usually as strong leading to less intense rates and banding and often the best WAA lift goes to our north overall.
  12. SnowGoose69
    This has potential to be meat rung if the Thursday system continues to blow up like this. I don't see any scenario where we get a transfer far enough south where we stay all snow but we could see a setup where this gets grinded and ends up being much weaker with less QPF
  13. SnowGoose69
    There won't be much sleet with this as shown now. This is snow to rain with probably a short period of sleet
  14. SnowGoose69
    This is also one of the deepest Highs in place ahead of an overrunning event since basically 11/2018. All events since have more or less flipped to sleet immediately due to the air mass being horrible. We are still 2 days though from being able to seriously look at this
  15. SnowGoose69
    In general for both summer and winter the magical flip period if you’ve been stuck in one sort of regime is 7/25 or 1/25. If you don’t see it by then it rarely happens. We’ve seen it on the flip side with summer in years such as 2001 or 2002 but look at 2000 and 2003. 2003 finally got warm around 8/10 or so but it lasted all of 10 days and we flipped right back again. It’s why once you reach 2/1-2/5 and have seen so big change it’s rarely coming and if you do it’s brief
  16. SnowGoose69
    In the absence of strong ENSO the Pac state from December has a tendency to resurface in February. Notice how last two winters the chit pattern from most of December with the SE ridge dominated February as well. It doesn’t necessarily mean the resultant weather will be the same because you could have a GOA low in Dec/Feb but in Feb the NAO is negative and mitigates it. That said this December the Pac was pretty good first 18 days of month. If we revert back to that idea in February we won’t do too poorly.
  17. SnowGoose69
    This always happens with these storms but usually in normal speed flow it occurs 200-300 miles further south on a system that originated down in the TN Valley but since this sucker is in such insanely fast flow that transfer is occurring in SNE or in the NYC corridor
  18. SnowGoose69
    This was why I felt the globals for a time early yesterday were west of the mesos. They will usually overplay precip in what will be the dead in between zone in these setups. It was pretty much the cause of regular busts back in the 80s/90s on these events
  19. SnowGoose69
    It probably was. The last few runs of the HRRR are pretty putrid though one can argue beyond 8 hours it’s iffy
  20. SnowGoose69
    Trust me. They ain’t getting much either. BL issues down there. The NAM has been the only run that’s shown anything crazy and the snow maps are overdone
  21. SnowGoose69
    This is one of those cases where S and W of NYC can do better. It’s not a true transfer but basically the vort gives way to a coastal low so there’s noticeably as you can tell a dead period from like TTN up to middle of CT before the coastal ramps up. A big reason the best looks are coming from the globals such as the UKMET/GFS is probably because they’re overdoing the QPF look in that corridor where as the mesos know there won’t be much there
  22. SnowGoose69
    I think the UKMET has a tendency to bias too far west at times with weaker coastal systems. It’s the real dynamic bombs it has progressive issues with oddly enough
  23. SnowGoose69
    Seeing the globals be west of the mesos overall is usually a suspicious thing. Often means globals are wrong from my experience and often happens with fast moving systems like this
  24. SnowGoose69
    03Z SREFs wetter again for Tues night. Euro did not make much of a move NW though it did come back from its 18Z run
  25. SnowGoose69
    03Z SREFs wetter again.
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